Five Expensive Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Worth Paying Up For - 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

July 10, 2024

Alex Ciulla presents five pricey buys in dynasty formats that can push your team over the edge in 2024. Fantasy football managers should consider these elite assets if their team is in a position to make a playoff run.

It can be easy to talk yourself out of acquiring certain players in dynasty formats. You may start with the intention of trying to make a move and add a game-changing asset to your squad, but then begin worrying about that player's future. It can be challenging to talk yourself into a roster piece long-term. However, it's crucial to avoid falling into what I call trade paralysis. Instead, be decisive and take control of your team's destiny because, after all, we are all here to win fantasy championships.

Typically, the cheapest place to find elite fantasy performers is in drafts, whether for veterans or rookies. Their prices skyrocket once players break out and ascend to the elite tier. Additionally, some fantasy managers become overly attached to certain assets and their week-to-week output, and a level of inflation could even elevate their prices. A down year can decrease a player's asking price marginally, so it's ordinarily a good idea to pounce in the offseason before everyone remembers what they're capable of once they return to the field. Be mindful of the unique market in your league, and most of all, know your league mates.

To help bolster your fantasy lineups, I will offer five expensive dynasty buys below. Acquiring some of these players will not be for the faint of heart, but they stand an excellent chance to help propel your squad to a playoff run and, hopefully, a championship come season's end.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR - Cincinnati Bengals

The case of acquiring Ja'Marr Chase is as easy as it comes. He's one of the top three wide receivers off draft boards in dynasty ADP, and he has as good a shot as CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson to finish as the overall WR1. Over the last two seasons, Chase hasn't finished higher than the WR11 in PPR formats. Naturally, we didn't draft Chase to finish as a Top-12 option, but unforeseen obstacles have blocked his path to the Top-5 fantasy WR we saw in his rookie breakout campaign.

In 2022, he averaged 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game, which was sixth-best among all WRs. Unfortunately, Chase suffered an inguinal hip tear/fracture in Week 7 and missed the next four contests. He returned in Week 13 but finished the year as the WR12. However, if we extrapolate his average output for the time he missed, Chase would have been the WR5. Last season, he was mostly healthy aside from missing one game (Week 16) due to an AC joint sprain, but that doesn't account for his second consecutive down year. Lest we forget, Joe Burrow suffered a myriad of injuries last season. The calf strain Burrow picked up early in the pre-season hindered his performance for most of the first half of the season. Then, when he finally began to look like his old self, Burrow tore a ligament in his throwing wrist in Week 11, effectively ending his season.

Now is an excellent time to go and get Chase if you can pry him from a league mate's death grip. It will likely cost you around three firsts if you'd like to do so strictly with draft capital, a move I advocate for a perennial contender. Otherwise, try two firsts and an up-and-coming player. Think of someone like Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It may be challenging to wrap your head around that kind of price, but Chase has tremendous upside, and the fact that the Bengals are likely to move on from Tee Higgins post the 2024 season is an even more significant boon to his outlook. Aside from Jerry Rice, Ja'Marr Chase is the only other player in fantasy history to garner more than one game of 50+ fantasy points. He's still just 24 years old.

Your on-field pass with @Real10jayy__ is here 🎙️

Mic'd Up | @altafiber pic.twitter.com/uPXfHB6ryB

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 19, 2023

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR - Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been one of the most hyped and talked about WR prospects since Calvin Johnson, and for good reason. He certainly looks the type of the prototypical X wideout as he stands 6-foot-3, 205 lbs, and he's pretty quick, too (4.46 40-yard dash). Harrison Jr. also has the pedigree to succeed in the NFL. If you've been following football long enough, you were lucky to watch his Hall of Fame father play. There's evidence he might even be better than his dad once he has a few years of seasoning on his resume.

College Football’s Fastest Five of the Week:

1. Buckeye WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (@MarvHarrisonJr) 22.2 mph #ReelSpeed @11W

🎥: @BigTenNetwork

🔗 https://t.co/orrD059ykP pic.twitter.com/UJCk1xjAmx

— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 11, 2023

The Cardinals selected MHJ fourth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, hinting at how highly the league regards him as a prospect, and he is one of the most NFL-ready WRs in recent history. His freshman season at Ohio State did not give us a glimpse of who he could be as he was buried on the depth chart behind Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, three stellar NFL-caliber talents. However, he broke out in his sophomore season while C.J. Stroud still donned a Buckeyes uniform. That year, Harrison caught 14 touchdowns across 13 games, racking up 77 receptions and 1,263 yards while sharing the field with five-star prospect Emeka Egbuka.

There was some speculation that MHJ would take a step back statistically after Stroud's departure to the NFL. However, he turned in a near-identical line (67/1,211/14) in one fewer game. This cemented him as the top WR prospect entering the 2024 draft, and the second-overall ranked player on PFF's big board. Expectations are sky-high for the 21-year-old, and rightfully so, now that he finds himself as the unquestioned top option for Kyler Murray. While it's difficult to place such a huge fantasy burden on a player who hasn't touched the field in the NFL, Harrison Jr.'s Reception Perception metrics speak to a player who should flourish on day one. He checked in at the 80th percentile or better against every sort of coverage collegiate defenses threw at him. Impressively, he faced press coverage for an astonishing 25.6% of his routes and came away with a 78.7% success rate (87th percentile). NCAA defenses double-covered him nearly 17% of the time (16.8%), and he won those matchups at an astounding 70% clip.

You'll be hard-pressed to buy MHJ in fantasy. He's the WR5 in dynasty ADP and was just the consensus 1.01 in non-Superflex rookie drafts. Even in Superflex formats, I watched him occupy that draft position nearly half the time. With an established quarterback in Murray and little else in the Arizona WR room as far as target-demanding wideouts, Harrison Jr. could be set for an enormous role in his rookie season, and if he blows up, you'll have missed your chance to get him. Try offering two firsts for him outright if you're not in a position to trade up in your rookie draft and grab him. Happy hunting.

Garrett Wilson, WR - New York Jets

We've been waiting on the Garrett Wilson breakout for what feels like forever at this point. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the time is now. Wilson was a fine player over his first two seasons. He had PPR finishes of WR21 and WR26 over that time. That difference might seem more significant than it actually is, as he scored just two fewer points in his sophomore season, and despite a nightmarish cast of quarterback play, he has cleared 1,000 yards in both years. If we look at the stats alone, they're pedestrian but only tell part of the story. It takes a closer look at him in isolation of the offense to see what type of player Wilson really is.

At this point in his young career, Garrett Wilson is one of the best separators in the league, though you wouldn't know it by his stat line. First, his 315 targets through his first two seasons are wildly high. That's an elite level of opportunity, and it hints at the type of demand Wilson garners as an option in the Jets' offense. The touchdowns haven't been there, but that's a product of the lackluster luck the Jets have had sans Aaron Rodgers, and scoring opportunities should come much more frequently with Rodgers under center for an entire season. Matt Harmon's Reception Perception paints a clearer picture of who Garrett Wilson is and what he can be with an upgrade at quarterback.

Over his RP sample, Wilson turned in elite marks across the board against all types of coverage. His success rates against man and press coverage check in at the 96th and 93rd percentiles in RP history which is astounding. He was double-teamed on 13.1% of his routes and excelled with an 80.5% success rate. His route-running prowess puts him in the conversation with players such as Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson. That's the top of the top regarding separation skills.

Wilson might be as difficult to acquire as Chase currently is, but I don't believe he'll require as high of a price point. Obtaining Garrett Wilson for two firsts from a rebuilding squad seems reasonable. You might need to grease that manager a bit more, but the payoff will be worth it. He's the WR8 currently in Sleeper dynasty ADP (No. 12 overall) but he stands one of the better chances to crack the Top-5 this year at end-of-season scoring. This could be an extraordinary season, barring Rodgers' health, and in a best-case scenario, he could challenge Lamb, Chase, and Jefferson for the WR1 overall.

Nico Collins, WR - Houston Texans

In 2023, Nico Collins finally showed what he could do with a capable QB at the helm. C.J. Stroud elevated the entire offense, and Collins was the main benefactor of Bobby Slowik's passing attack, easily posting career-highs across the board. While he had shown promise in the past regarding his Reception Perception profile, the former Michigan product took his game to new heights last season, making a jump to the elite territory of separators.

Collins' RP scores last season were nearly identical to Wilson's (see above) in terms of their success against man and press coverages. Collins checked in at the 94th percentile success rate against man and the 96th percentile against press, three ticks better than Wilson. He was even right around an 80% success rate against zone coverage (79.9%), proving it didn't matter how you chose to align against the Texans' X-receiver. It was exciting to see Collins dominate in separation, but his ability as a YAC monster puts him on another level. According to RP, he was "in space" on 14.5% of his routes, going down on first contact just 37.1% of the time and breaking multiple tackles 14.3%. Those are staggering numbers.

Nico Collins in 2023:

80 receptions, 1,297 yards, 8 receiving TDs (all career-highs)

A well-deserved extension to stay in Houston @lbg_nico7 🤝 pic.twitter.com/UbLowvy8zZ

— NFL (@NFL) May 28, 2024

The former 89th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft might be the cheapest player on this list to acquire, too. Collins is currently the WR18 in dynasty ADP, sandwiched right between two Chicago Bears (Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore). Undoubtedly, you could find a fantasy manager worried about the Texans' newly acquired superstar Stefon Diggs and the new target competition he presents alongside returning Texans Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. However, Diggs took a step back last year, and for now, he's seemingly just a one-year rental for Houston. If you can get Collins for a generic first and second-round rookie pick, that's a smash accept and one I'd take every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Even if he costs you two firsts it's worth it, considering he should be tied to Stroud for years to come.

Jonathan Taylor, RB - Indianapolis Colts

It wasn't long ago when Jonathan Taylor was the consensus first running back off the board in dynasty. Taylor absolutely crushed in his sophomore season when he ran wild for 1,811 yards at 5.45 yards per carry. That year (2021), he racked up 20 total TDs en route to the overall RB1 finish. Over the last two seasons, though, he's been a disappointment with back-to-back RB33 end-of-season ranks. It's been a strange few years for the Wisconsin product as ankle sprains marred his 2022 encore, then an early-season holdout and torn ligament in his thumb forced him to miss seven games in 2023. However, there are a few reasons to believe he's still the elite asset he was thought to be.

Last season, Taylor was still explosive in his limited action. Despite his diminished workload, he was one of the better bets every week. Taylor ranked 12th in fantasy points per game with 15.6 and was largely still efficient even with Gardner Minshew under center. On his 169 attempts, he ranked first in the league among all RBs with 2.7 yards after contact and still broke 14 tackles, according to Pro Football Reference. That's two more broken tackles than Saquon Barkley, and Taylor did it on 80 fewer rushing attempts. I'm even more bullish on his 2024 prospects with Anthony Richardson back in the fold. The dual-threat ability of Richardson will force defenses to account for him and should open up even larger rushing lanes for Taylor to rip through.

• 120 total yards
• 1 touchdown

The J-Train is picking up steam. 🚂

📺 #NOvsIND | 10/29 on FOX pic.twitter.com/CjmfQWpy24

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 23, 2023

JT is the RB5 in dynasty ADP, representing a clear tier break with Travis Etienne and Barkley going right behind him. At this point, with the hyper-fragility of RBs, I wouldn't pay more than two firsts for any of them, and that includes the four going in front of him in ADP (Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey). Taylor is most likely the cheapest of that litter, but his elite speed-power combo still keeps him in the conversation of finishing as the RB1 if he can stay healthy. Maybe you can get him for less than two firsts now that he's 25, and the combination of Trey Sermon and Evan Hull behind him on the depth chart doesn't pose much of a threat to eat into his workload at all. Taylor could be in for a monster season on a massive workload.

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