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Kev analyzes risers and fallers for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Which known studs should break out of their slump and which newcomers on the scene will stick?
Ah, there is nothing quite like the highs and lows of fantasy baseball season. Every at-bat in every game played is the final straw based on that moment, though the reality is that MLB players will have hundreds more of these in the coming weeks to neutralize whatever outcome happened.
Throughout the first half, plenty of recently unknown players have thrived in fantasy baseball while many perennial All-Stars have disappointed. Below, I discuss which known commodities should work their way back to fantasy stardom and which flavor of the month may stick.
For all complaints, contact Kev Mahserejian on X (@RotoSurgeon). Without further ado, here are your risers and fallers for Week 17 of the fantasy baseball season!
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Fantasy Baseball Risers
Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
29% Rostered on Yahoo!
Eugenio Suarez is hitting like Eugenio Suarez again. The 11-year MLB veteran woke up in July and through the All-Star break holds a slash-line of .341/.442/.705. Four of Suarez's 10 home runs this season have been hit over the past two weeks. The 32-year-old 3B will not sustain his high average, but if this trend of power continues, he should be a fantasy staple moving forward.
Eugenio Suarez last 15 games 🔥
.333 BA
4 Home Runs
17 Hits
16 RBIs
12 RunsMay be the hottest player in baseball right now. pic.twitter.com/3leywa0sFr
— 🌵 Mr. Az (@MrAzSports) July 15, 2024
Suarez still possesses 30+ HR power and hits in the middle of a solid Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 10th in wRC+. His ability to drive in mass amounts of runs is valuable in fantasy and compensates for his lack of speed and lower batting average.
Verdict: Pick up in all 12+ team formats.
Lawrence Butler, Oakland A's
16% Rostered on Yahoo!
Finding Oakland A's hitters worthwhile in fantasy is a tall task, but a three HR game this past Sunday will draw interest. Lawrence Butler's season had not been up to par with his peripheral contact numbers, but July has been kind to the rookie outfielder. Since the beginning of this month, Butler has posted seven HRs, 10 runs, 17 RBI, and two SBs while hitting .317.
Unbelievable. Lawrence Butler with the 2nd-deck bomb. His THIRD home run of the day.
449 feet
109.9 mph
1.000 xBApic.twitter.com/c7CFRF9QdU— Karl Buscheck (@KarlBuscheck) July 14, 2024
Butler is hitting leadoff of late, which should sustain against RHP (Butler is a lefty), but he has just one hit in 22 plate appearances versus LHP. Luckily, he is still underperforming his season-long xwOBA by a significant margin, making way for more positive regression. The A's roster limits his run and RBI upside, but given his ability to steal bases, he can make up for those lower totals.
Verdict: Pick up in all 12+ team formats.
Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies
31% Rostered on Yahoo!
Summer is here and so is a Rockies hitter on fire! Coors Field is typically kind to several Colorado bats yearly, but we have a new face this season. Michael Toglia is a former first-round pick with huge power and a propensity to strike out. This type of profile is often frustrating, but it's fun when things are clicking. Toglia has hit 12 HRs across the past month with 18 runs and 21 RBI. While he is batting just .220 in this span, that type of power is hard to ignore and given his pedigree, potentially sustainable.
Homer no. 3 of the day for Michael Toglia.
Toglia becomes the sixth #Rockies player with three home runs in a game on the road and the first to do it as a switch-hitter. pic.twitter.com/sa5AKjHAI3
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) July 14, 2024
Usually, Colorado hitters outperform their xwOBA due to the effects of Denver's altitude on batter balls, but Toglia, despite a recent hot streak, is still underperforming. His wOBA sits at .321 while his xwOBA is an above-average .358. Like Butler, more positive regression may be coming.
Verdict: Add in all formats. Toglia may be "this year's Nolan Jones."
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Christian Scott, New York Mets
24% Rostered on Yahoo!
Christian Scott's first two starts this season:
2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 3.41 xFIP
28% K%, 6% BB%
Christian Scott generated 18 Whiffs in his fantastic MLB debut
Here are all of them: pic.twitter.com/kTQG6qa5fz
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 5, 2024
Christian Scott's last six starts:
4.99 ERA, 5.22 FIP, 4.99 xFIP
16.7% K%, 5.6% BB%
Small sample splits should typically be taken with a grain of salt but Scott's performance has been atrocious in this recent span against mostly mediocre offenses. Whether he is hurt or overwhelmed does not matter for the sake of fantasy managers as he is unstartable.
Verdict: Drop in all leagues 12-team and shallower. Hold in deeper leagues for a resurgence post-ASB.
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
76% Rostered on Yahoo!
Bryan Woo is potentially delaying the inevitable in recent starts. Since mid-June, Woo has not pitched beyond four innings and is struggling. Three of his past four starts did not make it into the fourth inning. Over his past three MLB starts, Woo's struck out just five batters and walked three.
In the preseason, Woo was sidelined with forearm tightness but returned in May and pitched for a month at a high level. He was then placed on IL due to a hamstring injury and has since dealt with another forearm issue. Forearm injuries are precursors to UCL issues, which may mean Tommy John is on the horizon.
Verdict: Drop in all formats.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
56% Rostered on Yahoo!
The former top pitching prospect in baseball is wavering in recent weeks. After a breakout start to this season, Gore has skid since his date in San Diego with the team that drafted him. Gore holds an egregious 7.23 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 6.9% K-BB through these past four starts. While the excuse of facing the league's best team versus LHP (New York Mets) twice in this span could be used, one of Gore's best starts of the season was the first of the two matchups. Neither the Padres nor Cardinals rank above average versus lefties, yet they crushed him.
MacKenzie Gore splits
April/May
2.91 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 22.3 K-BB%June/July
5.63 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 12.8 K-BB%Velo once again 📉 pic.twitter.com/sWjn7aAovY
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) July 16, 2024
Gore's velocity across every pitch has dropped over the past month, which could be a big issue in the second half. Nevertheless, he has been too good to cut right now and could bounce back after some All-Star break rest.
Verdict: Hold in 12+ team leagues.
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