Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 23)

August 25, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 23 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 23 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Brenton Doyle and Masataka Yoshida.

We'll take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of meaningful trends that can be revealed in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Brendan Rodgers and Jhonkensy Noel were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 8/21

Brenton Doyle (10)

Brenton Doyle enjoyed a few shorter hit streaks this season but this is his longest so far, now standing at 10 games. He hasn't had many prolonged dips in performance this year until just before this recent hot stretch.

Before this current hit streak, Doyle had gone 5-for-43 (.116), so he was due for a correction. And corrected he has, going 15-for-40 (.375) with three doubles, a triple, and one home run, along with nine runs scored and three stolen bases.

Hometown Homer! pic.twitter.com/FyUo1v23Br

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 22, 2024

While the former fourth-round pick stole 22 bases last season, he wasn't able to do much with his bat. That has changed this season as the 26-year-old has gone into full breakout mode, putting together a .271-20-60-71-24 line over 122 games.

Mark Vientos (9)

Mark Vientos is having a solid season for the Mets and is a big reason they've been able to stay alive in the playoff hunt despite some abysmal bouts of ineptitude earlier this season.

Vientos has been hitting for power and average ever since he got a chance to be a regular in the lineup this season, hitting .280 with 19 doubles and 20 home runs in 79 games. The 24-year-old has pitched in 51 RBI and 42 runs scored to boot.

Home run No. 20 for Mark Vientos gives the @Mets the lead. 🍎 pic.twitter.com/7wV3QVss0g

— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2024

Now, the former second-round pick is riding a nine-game hit streak. He's surprisingly only rostered in 64% of leagues, although that is perhaps because he's a zero in the stolen base department. He's also eligible at both 1B and 3B, which makes him even more appealing.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/21

There is certainly a mixed bag of names on this list. We'll discuss two of the more intriguing cases below.

Masataka Yoshida (.455)

If Masataka Yoshida could only hit lefties, he'd be hitting higher than .297 and getting even more regular playing time. Unfortunately, the 31-year-old is slashing .203/.299/.324 in 74 AB against LHP this season compared to .332/.400/.485 in 202 AB versus RHP.

Nevertheless, over the last week, he's hitting .455, but the hot streak has been going for even longer than that. Over the left-handed hitter's last nine games, he's gone 14-for-28 (.500) with two doubles, two home runs, six RBI, seven runs scored, and even stole his first base of the season.

Masataka Yoshida blasts a go-ahead 2-run shot 🚀 pic.twitter.com/wB5mjct2aG

— MLB (@MLB) August 20, 2024

Impressively, the Sox's designated hitter also walked more than he's struck out over that time (4:2 BB:K). Platoon players can be maddening for season-long fantasy, but you can confidently fire him up for DFS when the Sox are facing a righty.

Spencer Torkelson (.412)

As someone who drafted Torkelson in many best ball leagues this season, suffice it to say I'm happy to see him back in action and contributing. Now, let's not get too excited, four of his hits this past week came in the same game, but it's a start.

The 24-year-old is a former No. 1 overall pick, so you know the talent is there, but after a 31-homer season in 2023, this season has been beyond disappointing. Nevertheless, with his pedigree, it wouldn't be wild to think this could be the start of something good.

Spencer Torkelson doubles to right-center in his first at-bat! #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/ZXVG3atAgA

— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) August 17, 2024

We'll see if this turns into anything more, but hopefully, he can get hot and ride that momentum into next season. Then we can look back at 2024 as a blip on the radar of a long, bountiful career.

Torkelson is available in over 60% of leagues for managers willing to take a chance.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/21

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Well, of course, Aaron Judge is, and congrats to Weston Wilson on hitting for the cycle, but let's move lower on the list.

Keibert Ruiz (.455)

I mentioned Keibert Ruiz in this article back when we were heading into Week 18 as an underachiever due for a turnaround. With a strong contact rate (88.7%), it appears he's hitting more now than he should have been all season long.

It's not just singles, either, as the switch-hitter has a double and three home runs over the past week. For someone who has just a 10.2% K% on the season, there's still room to improve on his .229 average.

Keibert Ruiz hits his 3rd career multi-homer game and 11th homer of the year, hes getting good pic.twitter.com/jjvD5DHLVD

— Nationals Fan (@Nats_HRs) August 16, 2024

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 8/21

Parker Meadows (4)

You may have noticed Parker Meadows listed in the "Highest Average Last Seven Days" table above, but I saved him for this section because as you can see, he swiped four bags over the past week in addition to hitting well.

Meadows was optioned to the minors earlier this season, but when he finally made it back, the 24-year-old hit the IL. However, he came off the IL on August 3 and all he's done is rake.

Parker Meadows is the #walkoff hero for the @Tigers at the #LittleLeagueClassic! pic.twitter.com/bh0WOCZB4i

— MLB (@MLB) August 19, 2024

The former second-round pick has gone 19-for-54 (.352) since his return from injury, including five doubles, two triples, a home run, five RBI, nine runs scored, and five stolen bases in 14 games.

If he can keep this up for the remainder of the season, he could be a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs, and he's available in over 90% of Yahoo leagues.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 8/21, minimum 300 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

George Springer (.223 vs. .257)

George Springer has underperformed all season long, and he continues to do so. At 34 years old, you want to look out for age-related declines, and his chase rate has ticked up while his contact rate has dropped 2.6% and strikeout rate has ticked up.

Could those be signs? Sure, but he also has a BABIP of .245 versus a career BABIP of .295, so some bad luck could be to blame.

Either way, he's still due for a turnaround, although he's running out of time. The veteran is actually in the midst of a six-game hit streak, so perhaps the turnaround is currently in effect.

If the former four-time All-Star can pick up the pace, he could still finish with a 20/20 season.

Honorable mention: MJ Melendez (.206 vs. .246)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 8/21, minimum 300 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Jake McCarthy (.304 vs. .273)

I'm riding the wave along with the rest of you and hopefully, we ride it right on through to a fantasy championship. As a word of caution, Jake McCarthy's name popped up on this list this week.

The 27-year-old has been knocking the cover off the ball for a while now. Ever since a five-hit game back on July 27, he's gone 35-for-90 (.389) with two doubles, three triples, five home runs, 24 RBI, 18 runs scored, and five stolen bases.

The former 39th overall draft pick has a high BABIP of .348, but it is not abnormally high for him (career .335). However, he's got a 3.4% barrel rate, so the home runs should probably slow, also as evidenced by his SLG of .457 compared to an xSLG of .388.

With a decent average and the ability to steal bases, he should remain relevant for fantasy, though, and he's available in around 25% of fantasy leagues.

Also: Connor Wong  (.286 vs. .232) - he'll probably stay on top of the list for the rest of the season with how hot he started this year.

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