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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 5/16/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
Pretty interesting schedule we have on our hands on this Wednesday in the middle of May. Fourteen major league games are set to take place, but only 11 of them are in the larger contests. There are six games in the Early slate and five on the Main. I'll be focusing on those as that's where the majority of money is in prize pools (and there are far more contest options in those as well). The Early slate locks at 12:o5 and the Main at 7:05.
I'll update this Vegas section as the day goes along with any relevant information. As of Tuesday night, what I can say for the Early slate is that Vegas is expecting a lot of funs in the Phillies-Orioles game (over/under of 10.5) and very few at Citi Field where the Mets host the Blue Jays (over/under of 7.5). For the Main slate, we don't have a whole lot to dissect. There are a handful of modest run projections for the majority of games (7.5-8.5 runs) and the lone attractive line (for stacking purposes) happens to be the contest in Atlanta between the Braves and Cubs, with an over/under line of 9.5 as for moneyline favorites, the Red Sox are big time favorites at -250, and the only other notable line is essentially the -175 line that belongs to the Dodgers down in Miami.
You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
J.A. Happ - SP, at NYM ($8,600) - Early
Happ has put together a pretty strong first-quarter campaign. The Toronto lefty has posted a 29% strikeout rate, a 3.16 SIERA and an 11.7% SwStr rate through 45 innings. He had a rough go his last time on the mound, but the Seattle team that delivered the damage ranks third overall in advanced stats against lefties. His opponent today, the Mets, rank dead last in the same leaderboard and they also happen to strike out a ton (26.7%). In addition to Vegas seeing this as a low scoring game, Happ also gets a positive park shift and doesn't have to face the DH. He's a good value price as well, and he's a strong option in this Early slate in either format.
Also Consider for Early: Trevor Bauer - SP, at DET ($9,300) - Cash/GPP; Nick Pivetta - SP, at BAL ($7,100) - GPP
Chris Sale - SP, vs OAK ($11,400) - Main
Right as everyone shied away from Sale last week on a slate where he was accompanied by other aces, he went out and dominated to the tune of 15 K's and did it at low ownership. The low ownership wont be there today thanks to the wacky slates FanDuel has decided to roll with, but he gets the nod from me by a slight margin. This Oakland team has been pretty good against southpaws, but Sale is a different beast and Oakland does strike out at a nearly 27% clip. He leads the slate not only in strikeout projections, but also in opponent run projections (Oakland currently 3.1). Seeing as the Red Sox are -250 favorites and he has major strikeout upside, I like him in all formats tonight.
Also Consider for Main: Elieser Hernandez - SP, vs LAD ($6,600) - GPP only
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Roberto Perez - C, at DET ($2,100) - Early
Perez is the southpaw specialist among the Cleveland backstops and he should get the lineup call today at a nice price with home run upside. I use the term specialist lightly and in relative terms there, but he has shown some pop and this is a sneaky good park for right-handed power. Over the past season (2017-18) he's posted a .340 wOBA split to go with an .807 OPS.
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B, at DET ($3,900) - Early
There are a number of Indians in good spots this afternoon, but the price you'll pay is quite steep. Edwin coming in at just under 4K is a bargain considering the upside. He's posted a .379 wOBA and a .253 ISO against southpaws over the 2017-18 seasons, putting him in elite company for this slate. He's also run into some recent bad luck in terms of batted balls, as he has nearly a 50% hard hit rate over the Indians' last four series but not much to show for it in terms of DFS production. That should change this afternoon.
Matt Carpenter - 3B, at MIN ($3,000) - Early
I know he's been struggling offensively, but I do like him as a tourament option on this early slate. The Cardinals have one of the highest run projections at 5.0, and Lance Lynn has a history of struggling with left-handed batters. Carpenter has a .347 wOBA and .213 ISO split against right-handed pitching over the 2017-18 seasons, and he's a nice value at this price point considering the upside and lineup context. And, despite these struggles he's having, he has posted a 57% hard hit rate in his last eight starts.
Manny Machado - SS, vs PHI ($4,900) - Early
Nick Pivetta is an intriguing GPP option on this Early slate, and he may end up providing value, but my money is on Machado doing some damage one way or the other. The big shortstop seems completely locked in right now, crushing his price implied value in five straight games and has a 43% hard hit rate over the last four series. For the month, he's posted a .465 wOBA, which is pretty damn incredible.
Joey Wendle - 2B, at KCR ($2,600) - Early
Wendle's numbers certainly wont floor anyone, but this is a pretty damn good matchup for him and he's been hitting the ball well over the last week. I like him as a tournment option thanks to the value-tier price and the probability he'll be one of the lower owned guys on what is a decent sized slate that feels small thanks to no outstanding selections. Over the past eight games, Wendle's hard hit rate is above 40% and he faces a pitcher in Hammel that has allowed a .357 wOBA and 1.71 HR/9 to left-handed hitters in 2018.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Rhys Hoskins - OF, at BAL ($3,900) - Early
We all know Rhys can really, really tee off on right-handed pitching and he's a strong fastball hitter, too. He has a .360 ISO currently against fastballs. Andrew Cashner is likely in trouble this afternoon. Over the past year, Hoskins has posted over a .400 wOBA split as well as a .283 ISO mark. In the past 15 days, his batted ball data is really strong too, which an averaged batted ball distance of 266 feet.
Odubel Herrera - OF, at BAL ($3,800) - Early
I'd strongly suggest getting some Phillies outfielders in your lineups! They've got a great matchup, and the prices wont break the bank. Herrera boasts a .383 wOBA split against right-handed pitchers and also provides some relative pop with a .196 ISO. He, too, has been the vitcim of some bad luck lately, but does have a strong 27% line drive rate in the last 15 days - which is what you want to see from a gap hitter.
Ian Happ - OF, at ATL ($2,800) - Main
On a slate where it seems every quality outfielder costs an arm and a leg, Happ is great salary relief that also provides home run upside in a good matchup. Atlanta is a great park for lefties and Brandon McCarthy has greatly struggled against lefties this season, allowing over a .400 wOBA and a .242 ISO. Happ has also been swinging the stick much better after his extended slump, carrying a hard hit rate right around 50% over the last eight games.
Kyle Schwarber - OF, at ATL ($4,100) - Main
For many of the reasons I listed Ian Happ, I like Mr. Schwarber. And I really like his chances of giving a young fan in the outfield seats a souvenir this evening as well - so long as this rain holds off. He has a massive .303 ISO split against right-handers over the past 12 months, and the 40% hard hit rate over the past 10 days is strong as well.
