RADIO
Tuesday is normally the enemy for me. For years, it's been getting by with little to no flack for essentially being Monday, but worse. It doesn't deserve a free pass. That all changes when baseball season comes around, though, because Tuesday means e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e is playing. Yes, we have all 30 teams taking the field tonight, and more often than not with Tuesdays, the games are all at night. That means one giant slate for us to hand-pick our rosters from. I guess I'm trying to say I'm a big fan of Tuesday nights in the Spring and Summer, in case that wasn't already clear.
What can we gather from the early Vegas lines? Well, for starers, we know the Red Sox are in the stack conversation as they have a slate-high projection of 5.6 runs, followed by the Yankees (5.1), Astros (4.7) and Cardinals (4.6). It's a little early for anything definitive on moneylines as of this writing, but check back here in the afternoon and we should have lines we can draw some insight out of.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/02/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays.
No more time to waste, there's much to discuss.
Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox versus Alec Asher
The Red Sox own a slate-high projection in run total tonight, sitting at 5.6 runs as of this morning. There may have been a Coors game or two with higher projections, but 5.6 is the highest mark I can recall this year. Of course, the game is at Fenway, a friendly hitter's park, the Red Sox lineup is loaded with talent from top to bottom (they own a projected-lineup wOBA of .321 versus right-handed pitching and rarely strike out ((20.1% K rate)) and Alec Asher is going to be completely over-matched. The Red Sox I'm leaning towards most are those with a mix of the strongest wOBA and ISO splits against right-handers this season, starting with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benitendi.
Texas Rangers versus Mike Fiers
This one might not be cash game safe, as Vegas isn't in love with the Rangers (currently a run total projection of 4), but I think they make a very intriguing tournament stacking option. We know this lineup is dangerous and that humid nights in Arlington can lead to a lot of home runs. What we also know is that Mike Fiers is no stranger to giving up the long ball (1.5+ HR/9 this season) and that he's already allowed a .466 wOBA and .429 ISO this season in a handful of starts. There are a number of Rangers with strong splits against righties, and I'll lean towards the ones with the highest ISO marks, as this is swing for the fences type stack for me, literally. My favorite Rangers tonight are Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez and Nomar Mazara.
Also Consider: St. Louis Cardinals versus Wily Peralta
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Chris Sale - SP, vs BAL ($11,700)
Considering Clayton Kershaw was $900 dollars more last night without the same strikeout upside, this is a bit of bargain for a southpaw who has been as dominant as Chris Sale has. The man has only destroyed his price implied value in every outing this year, with his season low(!) being a 46 FanDuel point outing in his season opener. For the year, he has excellent primary stats - 1.047 WHIP, 1.025 HR/9 and the belle of the ball, a 10.12 K/9. Tonight, his start does carry a little risk as the Orioles pack some pop and Fenway is pretty hitter-friendly, but he's still the most dominant pitcher in this slate and he does get an even more elevated strikeout projection, thanks to the projected Orioles lineup being pretty strikeout prone (27.1% K-rate) and a fairly average wOBA - 0.293. Of the 30 teams in action tonight, just two have a lower run projection than the 3.5 the Orioles are stuck with. Statcast metrics love Sale this season, too, as he's posted a groundball rate of 52% and owns a hard-hit rate of only 25%. He's a good option today in cash and a good-to-great option in tournaments if you can pair him with a stack or two.
Alex Wood - SP, vs SFG ($7,600)
I really, really like Wood at this price. Taking on a pretty weak Giants offense in a pitcher's park, you could even make a case for using him in some double-ups, as you'll be able to pack the rest of your lineup with elite talent at every position. That said, he's best used in tournaments, either with a best-of lineup or a stack combo. He owns a slate high K/9 this season with a brilliant 11.38 mark. This Giant lineup doesn't strikeout a ton, but a 24% strikeout rate with their projected lineup is still solid. If you look at the list of options tonight, you're not going to find many - save for perhaps Sale and/or Carlos Martinez - pitchers can get you the strikeouts you need to be in contention in tournaments tonight. Wood fits the description, and he's also sporting some pretty strong StatCast figures with his 58% groundball rate and 197 foot average batted ball distance over his last three starts.
Also Consider: Carlos Martinez - SP, vs MIL ($9,100) - GPP's
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Robinson Chirinos - C, vs HOU ($2,500)
There's a lot to like about Chirinos as it relates to home run potential tonight. He hasn't been an automatic in the lineup this season, so keep an eye on the Texas order and make sure they don't roll with Jonathon Lucroy. Now that that's out of the way, make sure to plug in Chirinos in tournament formats (he's viable in cash as well at this price - especially if you roster Sale and need value) because this is a great matchup. So far this season, Chirinos has been smashing right-handed pitching, posting a .377 wOBA split and a .333 ISO split. And it gets better, as Statcast data reveals Chrinos has an average batted ball distance of over 300 feet for the past 15 days, as well as a 55% flyball rate and a monstrous 77% hard-hit rate. His opponent, Mike Fiers, has been hit hard too. He's the sad owner of a .459 wOBA and .431 ISO allowed.
Also Consider:Jason Castro - C, vs OAK ($2,400)
Matt Carpenter - 1B, vs MIL ($3,800)
Carpenter has been a pretty damn reliable bat over the years and that trend is starting to re-emerge after a fairly slow start. Carpenter left the yard last night and I really like his chances of doing so tonight again - but I'd happily settle for a pair of extra-base hits and few runs driven in. This season, he's already put up splits that let us know he has a high floor (.383 wOBA) and a high ceiling (.241 ISO). In addition to hitting in the middle of this order, I also like Carpenter a lot because of his opponent, Wily Peralta, who has allowed a .527 wOBA and a .417 ISO.
Also Consider: Joey Votto - 1B, vs PIT ($4,000)
Rougned Odor - 2B, vs HOU ($3,300)
I'll spare you the details about how vulnerable Mike Fiers is tonight as you've probably read it two or three times by now. Odor is a great value tonight as he's basically mid-tier price and he has excellent lineup order value and that lineup is currently projected for one of the highest totals of the night. As for him individually, he's been very good this season against right-handed pitching, posting a .331 wOBA and .254 ISO splits. He's also posted a hard-hit rate of 41% over the last 15 days.
Also Consider: Brian Dozier - 2B, vs OAK ($3,900)
Jedd Gyoroko - 3B, vs MIL ($3,000)
Gyorko really shouldn't be priced so low when facing a right-hander that is also a home run prone pitcher in Wily Peralta. Peralta has allowed a .407 ISO this season and Gyoroko and his .310 ISO split should definitely be able to take advantage. Is he going to homer again twice again like last evening? I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I think he has as good a chance as any other infielder on the slate - and he's quite a value with high upside in this price tier.
Also Consider: Jake Lamb - 3B, at WAS ($4,000)
Taylor Motter - SS, vs LAA ($3,100)
Motter is another absolute steal at this price point and he's got a tournament ceiling with a pretty safe cash game floor. In 2017, he's the owner of a .335 wOBA and a .299 ISO split. A .299 ISO split is incredibly powerful in its own right, but what makes Motter even more attractive is the difference in his splits - his wOBA and ISO splits are .043 and .197 points higher, respectively. The kid does all his damage against right-handed pitching, and I'll have plenty of Motter shares tonight at such a moderate price.
Also Consider: Aledmys Diaz - SS, vs MIL ($2,900)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Aaron Hicks - OF, vs TOR ($3,000)
Hicks is a switch-hitter but he's extra valuable when facing a right-handed pitcher. He owns very strong splits for the season, with an extremely desirable .463 wOBA and an even more desirable .353 ISO. I also love this matchup for the fact that Mat Latos has been hit fairly hard for the year (.370 wOBA, .200 ISO) and this game is being played power-hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. It's also nice that you certainly don't have to break the bank to afford someone with such high upside.
Michael Conforto - OF, at ATL ($3,500)
Conforto is flourishing in the leadoff spot and I'm going to ride with him while he does so - especially at a pretty moderate price. Certainly, the leadoff spot is the most valuable in DFS, and he has excellent splits against right-handers as well, making him a must for me today in cash games. For the season, he's sporting a .395 wOBA and .294 ISO split against right-handed pitching.
Also Consider: George Springer - OF, at TEX ($3,400) and Charlie Blackon - OF, at SDP ($3,800)
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