Fantasy Football ADP Values on ESPN - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

September 2, 2024

Quincy analyzes undervalued ESPN fantasy football ADPs and sleepers, plus overvalued fantasy football picks for ESPN drafts. Who are bargains in 2024 drafts?

Every fantasy football platform has its own ADP that is largely dictated by the different user bases on each platform. ESPN is the largest fantasy football platform that draws casual and highly experienced players.

Luckily, ESPN publishes an up-to-date live draft trend page during every fantasy football draft season. This page allows managers to study where players are going in drafts and adjust their draft strategy accordingly.

Every fantasy platform is going to have undervalued and overvalued players. Most of them will be similar across platforms. However, a few stand out on ESPN. I recently wrote about a few of these players in my NFC/AFC West breakdown, so let's recoup and break it down.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

Davante Adams - Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams is currently being drafted as the WR9 with an early ADP of 21.9. Adams is still an excellent wide receiver in the NFL as far as talent goes. Drafting a player as the WR9 with either Gardner Minshew II or Aidan O'Connell throwing them the ball feels like a bad idea. Minshew has the potential to support Adams in some capacity, but it appears that O'Connell has the inside track to the starting job.

Adams may very well finish at or around his current ADP. Unfortunately, there is a world -- and likely a higher probability -- that Adams will finish closer to WR15-20. Additionally, Adams already finished behind WR9 as the WR10 in 2023.

However, Adams is still a player who could win you any given week. He did manage two games with at least 37.6 PPR fantasy points in 2023. At Adams' current draft position, you would be passing up on players such as Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Travis Etienne Jr. Each of those players should be far more consistent, have more upside, and give you better positional value than Adams.

If the Raiders had managed to land a quarterback such as Russell Wilson this offseason, then I would be more bullish. This team simply does not have a quarterback in place who is going to give Adams the consistency that you want out of the WR9.

Michael Pittman Jr. - Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is currently being drafted as the WR12 with an ADP of 30.3. I do not hate his overall draft position, but his positional value is scarier. Pittman finished as the WR13 in 2023 with an established veteran in Gardner Minshew II slinging the rock. We will hopefully get to see a healthy season from quarterback Anthony Richardson in 2024, but we do not know where he is in his development as a passer.

Since Richardson only finished two of the four games he started, it is not possible to judge his 2023 passing performance. There were times when he looked poised and comfortable. There were also times when he looked like the project many expected coming out of college. Richardson should take a step forward as a passer with a year in an NFL building under his belt. However, Richardson's rushing ability coupled with the presence of a healthy Jonathan Taylor will likely bring the Colts' passing volume down from 2023.

The Colts also added rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell to a core that already included Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce. Mitchell will not threaten Pittman's job, but his presence could threaten Pittman's volume. Pittman caught 109 passes on 156 targets in 2023. Even if he matches his 2023 season across the board, Mitchell will likely still finish right around the range he is being drafted in.

Pittman will still be a quality asset in fantasy and should finish somewhere between WR12 and WR24. The unknowns surrounding Richardson seem to cap Pittman's upside. Pittman should be a solid and consistent WR2 in 2024, but proceed with caution if you are drafting him to anchor your wide receiver room.

Stefon Diggs - Houston Texans

Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs is entering his first season with the team. It is an exciting time for Houston with the emergence of second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who led it to a 10-7 season with a Wild Card playoff win in 2023.

Diggs was traded from Buffalo to the Texans in April for a second-round draft pick. Diggs is coming off a down season in which he finished with 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. He also notably did not score a touchdown after Week 12.

The Texans have an established receiving corps with wide receivers Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz. They also retained wide receiver Noah Brown and added a quality pass-catching running back in Joe Mixon. This team is clearly going for it all in 2024, but there are a lot of mouths to feed.

Diggs will see his fair share of targets, but he is currently being drafted as the WR13 ahead of both Collins (WR16) and Dell (WR26). He is entering his age-31 season in a contract year and may try to demand the ball, but there is no denying the chemistry that Stroud had with his other weapons in 2023.

This will be an interesting situation to watch unfold, but I would rather place my bet on the incumbents in the offense rather than an aging veteran coming off a down year.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players

Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is currently being drafted as the QB15 on ESPN. He is being drafted behind rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Even Aaron Rodgers is going ahead of Herbert.

Herbert is a victim of fatigue as over the last two seasons, he has finished as the QB17 and QB11 after finishing as the QB9 and QB2 over his first two seasons. Injuries and poor coaching of the Chargers as a whole have contributed to Herbert's shortcomings. Herbert fractured a rib in 2022 and a broken finger cost him four games in 2023.

The issue has been a lack of touchdowns for Herbert. He threw at least 31 touchdowns each of his first two seasons, but he has not eclipsed 25 in each of his last two seasons.

What you may not realize is that Herbert's 2023 season was quietly solid due to a strong start that fizzled after the Chargers' Week 5 bye. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, which would put Herbert as QB6 if he had played the full slate. He was also on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards, rush for over 300 yards, and score 30 total touchdowns. Herbert is a walking top-10 fantasy quarterback.

Many fantasy players are seemingly scared off Herbert this year because of the exit of both wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and the declaration by the new Chargers coaching staff that they would like to run the ball. New head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have proven track records of producing excellent fantasy quarterbacks in Colin Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson.

Herbert's passing volume will surely go down this year, but the Chargers offense will move the ball and his rushing volume might improve. He will have scoring opportunities both with his arm and his legs. This is going to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2024.

Raheem Mostert - Miami Dolphins

So what if Raheem Mostert is 32 years old? He showed no signs of slowing down in 2023 en route to a top-5 fantasy finish. Mostert will almost surely not reach those heights again. It would be shocking to see him score anything close to the 21 touchdowns that he scored in 2023. However, Mostert should not be drafted as the RB30.

Players have magical seasons such as Mostert's 2023 and come back to earth the following season all the time. It should be no different with Mostert, but in the Mike McDaniel offense, the RB should deliver more than RB30 value. If Mostert is healthy, he should be a solid weekly RB2 and a flex option at worst.

Mostert should slot right back in as the starting running back for the Dolphins. De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright will both factor in, especially Achane. However, on a team that should be in the red zone consistently, Mostert is going to get the call. He may very well approach double-digit touchdowns yet again, which would deliver far more value than his current draft price.

Mostert may be an aging running back, but he was a special teamer to start his career and only had 41 carries through his first four seasons. He only has 633 carries in the five seasons since. Moreover, since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Mostert has played at least 15 games in both seasons. If you can get 15 games out of Mostert in 2024, then he is going to be a no-brainer value pick.

Jayden Reed and Christian Watson - Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers wide receivers Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are a package deal on this list. Reed is being drafted as the WR37 and Watson as the WR41. Both players seem to be falling as fantasy draft season continues to ramp up.

The Packers have an embarrassment of riches for young quarterback Jordan Love and they could all detract from each other's fantasy value. However, if this offense is going to be as good as it projects to be, then at least one or two players will emerge as viable fantasy options.

Based on his 2022 season and parts of his 2023 season, we know that Watson has the potential to be a special player. Additionally, Reed was excellent in 2023 when Watson was off the field and ultimately finished as the WR25. Reed will surely not score touchdowns at a 7.5% rate. However, going into his second season, Reed should see more opportunities as a whole and already established himself as a go-to target for Love.

Love should end the season with over 4,000 passing yards and very well may throw for over 30 touchdowns. As such, it seems ludicrous that his projected top-2 wide receivers are being drafted as low as they are. At least one, if not both, of these players will outperform their ADP in 2024. Both possess serious upside that other players in that range simply do not have.

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