March 12, 2017

Pierre Camus looks at ADP values for National League outfielders (OF). These players may be undervalued or overvalued for 2017 fantasy baseball drafts.

Spring Training rolls along, giving us a great chance to overreact to every at-bat. It might be a better use of our time to look at some stats from previous years and analyze current draft values instead. This time we'll check out some undervalued and overvalued NL Outfielders, to identify desirable draft targets and avoids based on ADPs.

Whether you play in an NL-only league or just want to dig a little deeper, these National League players are worth monitoring throughout the remainder of the preseason.

ADP data is taken from early NFBC rankings to determine which players may be great values, and which ones should be passed over at the outfield position.

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Undervalued NL Outfielders

Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds (Avg. pick: 154)

This surprising young slugger/All-Star/HR Derby participant wasn't even a consideration among last year's draft candidates. He likely wasn't picked up from waivers until several weeks into the 2016 season. After hitting 33 HR and 103 RBI in his first full season, you'd think he would be a hot commodity. An ADP below Carlos Gomez and Yasmany Tomas says otherwise. It must be the fact that Duvall never showed that kind of power before. Except for the three minor league seasons where he hit 30+ HR... Sure, Duvall won't win you a batting title hitting around .240, but the power is real and should only improve.

David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks (Avg. pick: 273)

He's off to a decent start this spring, hitting .278 in seven games. Most importantly, he's healthy and ready to man right field on an everyday basis. Last year was a lost cause for Peralta after numerous back and wrist injuries limited him to 48 ineffective games. As a result, he's a forgotten man on a team where A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt shine. Don't forget that Peralta hit well above .300 in his minor-league career and still has a .292 average in the majors, despite last year. His ceiling may be 20-20 in the power and speed categories, but if he can approach that while hitting for a high average, he'll be well worth a bench spot this late in the draft. 

Overvalued NL Outfielders

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds (Avg. pick: 51)

If you're the type of fantasy player that is fine spending a 5th round pick to win one category only, this feels about right to you. I'm not that guy. The moment Hamilton starts hitting closer to .300 (or at least a lot better than .260), then I might be slightly more interested. Even picking a closer this early at least helps you in ERA, WHIP, and to some extent K. Hamilton's meager average and run-scoring (69), combined with absolutely no power make it hard to stomach such a high ADP.

David Dahl, Colorado Rockies (Avg. pick: 94)

In dynasty or keeper leagues, this is a reasonable spot for Dahl. Coors bump aside, he showed well in his rookie season by hitting .315 with seven homers and five steals in 222 AB. In redraft, there is significantly more risk to making him one of your starting outfielders. Unless an injury occurs (looking at you, CarGo), Dahl is left without an everyday job in Colorado. Now that he's suffering from a stress reaction in the rib area, Dahl may even start the season on the shelf. His talent is worth a long-term investment, but don't overpay for 2017.

Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers (Avg. pick: 183)

The trendiest of sleepers this year is MLB refugee-turned-Korean slugger Eric Thames. Despite the fact he was a career .250 hitter in the majors with 21 total home runs in 633 at-bats, some are hoping he becomes the next Cecil Fielder after returning to the states. Thames was a superstar in the KBO the last three seasons, smashing 124 HR and driving in 379 runs. Then again, so was Byung Ho Park. Thames is worth a flier after the 20th round or so, but he seems to be trending higher as the season approaches. If you really think he's going to post better numbers than Marcell Ozuna or Jay Bruce, then roll those dice.

Fair Value NL Outfielders

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates (Avg. pick: 68)

This figure keeps dropping since February began, but Cutch seems to be settling in around the 20th outfielder selected. It's easy to explain away why he's no longer worthy of being an OF1, especially with six stolen bases versus seven times caught stealing. The batting average will probably rebound, however. It's easy to blame age, but he's done this once before - he hit .259 in 2011 with awfully similar power numbers to last season. Cutch should bounce back in all respects except for the speed, which keeps him from being valued any higher. Target him in the sixth or seventh round and enjoy the renaissance.

Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (Avg. pick: 38)

How do you put an ADP value on huge risk/reward? Stanton could easily lead the league in homers, but he could just as easily miss half the season. He's done each of those in the last couple of years. He has never hit less than 22 HR in a season, including his rookie year where he played 100 games and 2015, when he only took 279 AB. He's also never played more than 150 games in a season and has missed a total of 233 games over the last five years. Taking him earlier than the fourth round leans too heavily on the risk side, but if you wait much longer he'll be gone. Even in half a season, Stanton has proven dominant, so if you go with speed or pitching in the first couple of rounds, he might help balance your roster if you aren't completely risk-averse.

More Undervalued & Overvalued Picks