Dynasty Buy-Low Values for 2019 - Quarterback

February 28, 2019

Justin Carter identifies buy-low candidates at the quarterback position for dynasty league owners in 2019. These QBs could be undervalued throughout the offseason and make valuable trade candidates.

We all know that quarterback is the one position where you can wait and wait and wait and still find some good fantasy value on draft day, but that changes a little bit in dynasty leagues, because those same quarterbacks that you can get late in re-draft are probably already on someone's roster, so to get good value in year three or four of your league, you're either scouring the waiver wire, grabbing a rookie, or trying to trade for someone's backup QB.

Today, let's focus on that last part by looking at some guys who rank outside of the top-10 in RotoBaller's dynasty QB rankings but who present some good value heading into the 2019 season. These guys are likely available via trade and would be good targets heading into NFL free agency and #DraftSZN.

Below, you'll find my thoughts on three buy-low quarterback candidates for the 2019 season.

Kirk Cousins, MIN - QB12

It was not the year that Vikings fans were hoping for in 2018, but it's not time to give up on the 84 million dollar man, especially not when it comes to fantasy football.

Cousins will be 31 this season, but in quarterback terms that's still relatively young in an era where guys are putting up big numbers into their late 30s, so Cousins hasn't reached the point where I start to deduct dynasty points for age.

Here's the thing about Kirk Cousins: His 2018 numbers were actually pretty good. He threw for over 4000 yards for the fourth consecutive year. He tossed a career-high 30 touchdowns and his 10 interceptions were his fewest as a full-time starter. He did score just one touchdown on the ground after combining for 13 over the previous three years, and he only had five red zone carries after having 10 of them in 2017, but people aren't rostering Cousins for his rushing production.

Overall, Cousins was the QB13 last year because other quarterbacks picked their games up as the league re-discovered the passing game after a 2017 season where passing stats were down. That finish is disappointing, and so is the fact that the league became more pass heavy and Cousins responded by essentially playing at the same level he'd played at before, but let's note that Cousins didn't necessarily get worse in 2018, and he's still got a strong supporting cast around him moving forward.

He's also got a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Stefanski and an offensive advisor in Gary Kubiak. While Stefanski, who has spent a long time in Minnesota, doesn't really seem like someone to get excited about, Kubiak is. While his track record in terms of his quarterback's fantasy finishes isn't stellar, he did spend some time turning Matt Schaub into a top quarterback while in Houston, and he helped Joe Flacco put up good numbers in 2014. Kubiak will bring some stability to this offense, which should allow Cousins to finish as a top 10 fantasy quarterback again in 2019. Consider this past season just a blip on the radar.

Dak Prescott, DAL - QB15

Prescott might not be as cheap as the other two quarterbacks in this piece because there seems to be a growing portion of the fantasy world who understand that Prescott is a pretty good quarterback.

2018 was Prescott's worst fantasy season, but he still finished as the QB13. He threw just four interceptions over the fantasy season's final 11 games, and while he had three games with fewer than 10 fantasy points, two of those came over the season's first three games, before Prescott had Amari Cooper as his number one receiver.

I mean...look. Prescott opened the year with some rough outings, but his top receivers at that point were rookie Michael Gallup and guys like Cole Beasley and Allen Hurns. Prescott struggled because there wasn't really anyone for him to get the ball to.

Things changed. Cooper joined this team after the bye week, and from there on Prescott had just one game below 14.8 fantasy points, and just one game below 200 passing yards after opening the year by throwing for fewer than 200 in four of the season's first seven games.

Prescott's also a threat with his legs, rushing for six touchdowns on the season. Prescott isn't a big yardage guy on the ground -- his 305 rushing yards ranked ninth among quarterbacks -- but among his position, only Josh Allen ran for more scores. Prescott has some great vision as a rusher in the red zone, and with defenses keying in on Ezekiel Elliott down in that part of the field, Prescott's guaranteed to get a handful of rushing scores each season, raising his fantasy floor.

You also have to expect that the Cowboys build a strong offense around Prescott moving forward. Cooper is there. Gallup is likely to take a step forward. Cole Beasley is almost certainly gone after he made some comments about playing time that likely ruffled some feathers behind the scenes, but Dallas should look to the draft to replace him -- I've heard names like Andy Isabella thrown around on Dallas sports radio -- and should be able to find a suitable replacement. If the Blake Jarwin who showed up at the end of the year is the Blake Jarwin who shows up for the 2019 season, Prescott will have a full season with what's almost guaranteed to be the best supporting cast (apologies to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but their 2016 versions were starting to slide, and their 2017 versions continued that slide).

Josh Rosen, ARI - QB24

Over on NBA Twitter, we often refer to our, uhh, sometimes irrational love for a player who hasn't yet become what we expected as "owning real estate on [PLAYER] Island."

After the 2018 season, Rosen Island has become a pretty empty place, but I'm still happily building myself a large home right on the beach, and you can too for the low-price of "probably anything!"

The Cardinals brought in a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who honed his skills at Texas Tech as both a player and coach, and while a lot has been made of Kingsbury's off-hand remark last year that he'd take Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray with the first pick if he had it, that's not actually going to happen, right? Rosen is the quarterback in Arizona?

Rosen threw for 200 or more yards just four times during his rookie season. He threw for more than one touchdown just twice, and threw just one total touchdown over the season's final five games. He was sacked 45 times. He fumbled 10 times.

Y'all, what I'm trying to say is that 2018 was bad for Rosen. Very bad. And while Kingsbury has a strong background as an offensive-minded coach, there's no guarantee that he turns Rosen into a viable quarterback. In fact, not many people are saying that Rosen will take a step forward, which means he's pretty much bottoming out in terms of his dynasty price, and that's why you should go after him.

Coming out of UCLA, Rosen was hailed as a gifted pocket passer, a guy who could thread the ball into small windows. We saw signs of that last year, but the Cardinals entire offense was a mess. It might be a mess again, but you have to think Kingsbury devotes this offseason to improving the offensive line, and that he invests in some more weapons for Rosen. The team already added a solid tight end in Charles Clay to help provide a safety valve for Rosen, and Christian Kirk should take another step forward in his second year. If Arizona grabs another receiver early in the draft, Rosen could suddenly find himself leading an offense that's at least competent. He's still  low-end QB2 if we're talking exclusively about this season, but his future outlook interests me a lot due to the coaching change.

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