X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The American Express Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (2023)

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The American Express. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

We talked a lot last week about Si Woo Kim's upside potential for a venue like Wailae, and while he did make my official player pool in the 'Wednesday DraftKings' article that I write every week, I can't help but feel like I let one get away in the outright market after my model laid out the cards perfectly to attack him at 50/1. Kim's top 10 win equity mark provided this ideal opportunity to take a shot on him inside the futures market, but the card got away from me because of options like Russell Knox and Justin Suh – two players that likely should have been ignored in the outright sector and replaced by the South Korean.

More than anything, it shows that even someone like myself who does this for a living isn't perfect when putting together my wagers for the week, but we must limit those blunders to avoid decreasing our edge to the point that we aren't profitable. We will try to tidy up some of those errors this week at The American Express, so let's get into what we should expect from this three-course rotation and then talk about players that will fit the mold we are targeting.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code WIN! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The American Express

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

  • A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
  • American Express Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

  • Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
  • All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
  • Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
  • Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
  • Units: +311.229 Units
  • All Totals Are Entering 2023
  • Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

  • Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

First-Round Leader Article

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

  • 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
  • Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

  • We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

  • Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

 

Every Course In California?

7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Trivialis

While I joke about The American Express incorporating every venue inside the state of California, I would be lying if I didn't encounter some trepidation with this event from a modeling perspective because of the helter-skelter approach we will face this week. The field will be required to take on a three-course rotation between Thursday to Saturday, highlighted by an abnormal 54-hole cut and Pro-am nature that prolongs rounds, and the dreaded removal of 'Stat Tracker' only amplifies the model-building dilemma since we are flying blind whenever a golfer tees it up on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta track.

The top 65 players (and ties) that make the final round on Sunday will head back to the Stadium Course – a venue they will have played during one of the opening three days, but I find this to be a week where simplifying the process improves the long-term expectation. The rollover data has been less than pertinent since each course demands something different (you don't have to look any further than how challenging it can be on a typical week to identify one stop), and even if that doesn't mean there isn't a specific skill set that might be better suited to find success, the most manageable approach stems from emphasizing the parallels.

We see some of that come to fruition when we dive into the Par 72 essence and sub-7,200 core of all three stops, and the one significant corollary between all three properties originates on the ease to score on their four par-fives. Golfers that have been able to demonstrate an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard, although the crux of the final answer still comes down to how you handle the marginally more difficult Stadium Course and nine holes that will have water come into play. Some combination of total driving (geared toward accuracy) is generally a good place to start your research if you want to avoid tournament-ending danger, and the extensive bunkering can make finding fairways imperative, especially when you realize they produce around the highest birdie percentages on tour yearly when you play from the short grass.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Stadium Club Tour Average
Driving Distance 279 283
Driving Accuracy 59% 62%
GIR Percentage 65% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 63% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.34 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Pete Dye + Jack Nicklaus Designs (17.5%) 

Strokes Gained Total On Short/Easy Courses (17.5%) 

Weighted Par-Three (16%) 

Weighted Par-Four (13%) 

Weighted Par-Five (21%) 

Weighted OTT + APP (15%) 

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group: Before we even discuss the DFS board in the $10,000 range, most gamers will likely take an extremely stars-and-scrubs approach to the week. I am not saying that is the right or wrong way to approach the event, but when we look into the guaranteed nature of this tournament yielding three rounds of golf for all players, and the fact that the Stadium Course on Sunday does have implosion potential that re-enters the mix because of water, we do get a slate that pushes the envelope for what becomes proper from a game theory perspective.

My model believes all five names in the $10,000 section are inside the top 10 of my projected output, creating a unique approach since ownership will become the great decider. That isn't something we can lock into this early in the week on a Monday, but I want everyone out there to note that the board is as stout as you can get near the top.

Jon Rahm ($10,800) - Jon, why the anger? Three top 14 finishes at this *expletive* putting contest shouldn't be viewed as anything but a positive, although my belief is that the outrage stems more from the faulty short iron proximity returns than anything to do with the flat stick. Rahm ranks 62nd in this field in his approach play from within 100 yards, but it will be challenging to find much else wrong with the profile when you go through the entire spectrum of data inside my sheet. If the 28-year-old continues hovering outside the top 10 for ownership, I will ignore the approach metrics. 

Scottie Scheffler ($10,500) - We finally saw life from Scottie Scheffler and his putter at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and the carpet-like, perfectly-manicured greens in Palm Springs might be the final piece of the puzzle for him to get himself back across the finish line for the first time since the Masters in April. Scheffler grades as one of six players in this field who ranks inside the top 30 in all six categories that I attached a weight to this week, and he joins Cantlay as the only one in the group to place inside the top 15 for all sections.

Tony Finau ($10,200) - None of this answers how we should handle Finau at his popular ownership mark at this week's American Express, but those playing in season-long leagues might want to grab the American before his price becomes unobtainable. My model believed he should have been the second name off the board in drafts because of his combination of increased events and percentage of purses won, and I like the concept of taking pretty much all other pieces that were picked above him and trying to get an upgrade elsewhere, OR using the reverse of that mentality and using your own 2-for-1 to work a deal.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,100) - From a statistical perspective, there is a reason Patrick Cantlay has finished ninth, second, and ninth here when dating back to 2018. Cantlay graded inside the top 10 in all categories I weighed, including when I dove into recent form and the aforementioned course history returns, and the profile is strong if we can avoid runaway ownership over the next few days. I assume he eventually makes my player pool because of the top-ranked output in my model, but let's keep an eye on it for now.

Xander Schauffele ($10,000) - It is one of those situations where the back injury will plummet Xander Schauffele's usage rate, but let's see where we are in a few days before making a decision. If the returns remain near what they are now, Schauffele has legitimate tournament-winning GPP upside at sub-six percent.

 

As of Monday:


Early Rankings For Group: 

Ownership will be what filters out this group. It is too early to say.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: 

Sungjae Im ($9,800) - I believe this is an excellent bounce-back opportunity for Sungjae Im, but I want to mention how my model noticed an alarming trend regarding his approach numbers. During the last 20 times that Im has started a new streak of losing strokes with his irons -- something he did by dropping 2.7 to the field at Waialae, we have seen him continue that downward path 15 times within one of his subsequent two starts. That means good form continues when he is striking the ball well, and bad results have a habit of compounding, but four top-12 finishes in his career at the AMEX should generate a better floor than he had last weekend.

Will Zalatoris ($9,600) - Whether the answer is Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Brian Harman, Aaron Wise or another route in the $9,000s, we have a handful of solutions we will need to provide throughout the week. Our aggression in the $10,000s will likely be the ultimate decider for how many names we can take here, but my early lean does want to stack the top of the board, even if others are taking a similar approach -- albeit for different reasons. I like Zalatoris' upside, but are we better off playing Finau for $600 more? Let's get back to that over the next few days. 

Si Woo Kim ($9,200) - The consensus is going to be that Si Woo Kim's victory has moved him into a territory where he is too expensive, but I am not sure I buy that answer. Sure, we would have gotten him in the $8,000s if it weren't for his triumph in Hawaii, but my model is only using 10% of its weight toward recent form, suggesting the price tag is warranted for the 2021 champion of the event.

 

As of Monday:

Early Rankings For Group:

Waiting for ownership.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Cameron Davis ($8,800) - We'll see where the dust settles on Wednesday, but I do anticipate that my ownership projection will trickle down over the next few days. Eighteen percent is what I have as his expected final mark -- a total that would 100% keep me in the game for the week when it comes to playability. Davis' weighted par-five scoring and proximity rank him in the top five of this field. 

Taylor Pendrith ($8,000) - If Scottie Scheffler is my favorite target up top because of his leverage, Taylor Pendrith is my preferred play in the $8,000s for the same reason. Pendrith's win equity upside reminds me a little of what we saw last weekend when Si Woo Kim was able to get the job done in a much softer field, but even if the Canadian doesn't ultimately climb the ladder to the very top rung, the contrarian nature of this selection is beyond enticing for what he provides. Theegala will generate a similar mentality if we want to go boom-or-bust versus stars-and-scrubs, which I prefer since it still allows us playability from the first few names on the board but generates the leverage in a varying path.

 

As of Monday:

Early Rankings For Group: 

Stay tuned for my Wednesday article.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive into over the next few days.

I haven't made a decision yet on Justin Rose ($7,900), but if we go through the seven names from Harris English down to Emiliano Grillo on that list, that is where my early lean would be for DFS plays at the American Express.

Harris English ($7,600), Rickie Fowler ($7,800), Joel Dahmen ($7,600), Alex Smalley ($7,500), Thomas Detry ($7,600), Will Gordon ($7,400) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,600). 

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

This group is why I am not thrilled to play a stars-and-scrubs build, especially when we consider everyone might lean into that route. I'll pick and choose my spots, but I will not find myself exponentially overweight in this section.

 

Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:

$10,000 - Scottie Scheffler ($10,500)
$9,000 - Si Woo Kim ($9,200)
$8,000 - Taylor Pendrith ($8,000)
$7,000 - Harris English ($7,600)
$6,000 - Stewart Cink ($6,800)

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP