RADIO
We talked a lot last week about Si Woo Kim's upside potential for a venue like Wailae, and while he did make my official player pool in the 'Wednesday DraftKings' article that I write every week, I can't help but feel like I let one get away in the outright market after my model laid out the cards perfectly to attack him at 50/1. Kim's top 10 win equity mark provided this ideal opportunity to take a shot on him inside the futures market, but the card got away from me because of options like Russell Knox and Justin Suh – two players that likely should have been ignored in the outright sector and replaced by the South Korean.
More than anything, it shows that even someone like myself who does this for a living isn't perfect when putting together my wagers for the week, but we must limit those blunders to avoid decreasing our edge to the point that we aren't profitable. We will try to tidy up some of those errors this week at The American Express, so let's get into what we should expect from this three-course rotation and then talk about players that will fit the mold we are targeting.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The American Express
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- American Express Link
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
- Units: +311.229 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2023
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
Premium Discord Access
- Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.
- $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.
Every Course In California?
7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Trivialis
While I joke about The American Express incorporating every venue inside the state of California, I would be lying if I didn't encounter some trepidation with this event from a modeling perspective because of the helter-skelter approach we will face this week. The field will be required to take on a three-course rotation between Thursday to Saturday, highlighted by an abnormal 54-hole cut and Pro-am nature that prolongs rounds, and the dreaded removal of 'Stat Tracker' only amplifies the model-building dilemma since we are flying blind whenever a golfer tees it up on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta track.
The top 65 players (and ties) that make the final round on Sunday will head back to the Stadium Course – a venue they will have played during one of the opening three days, but I find this to be a week where simplifying the process improves the long-term expectation. The rollover data has been less than pertinent since each course demands something different (you don't have to look any further than how challenging it can be on a typical week to identify one stop), and even if that doesn't mean there isn't a specific skill set that might be better suited to find success, the most manageable approach stems from emphasizing the parallels.
We see some of that come to fruition when we dive into the Par 72 essence and sub-7,200 core of all three stops, and the one significant corollary between all three properties originates on the ease to score on their four par-fives. Golfers that have been able to demonstrate an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard, although the crux of the final answer still comes down to how you handle the marginally more difficult Stadium Course and nine holes that will have water come into play. Some combination of total driving (geared toward accuracy) is generally a good place to start your research if you want to avoid tournament-ending danger, and the extensive bunkering can make finding fairways imperative, especially when you realize they produce around the highest birdie percentages on tour yearly when you play from the short grass.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Stadium Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 279 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 59% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 63% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.34 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Pete Dye + Jack Nicklaus Designs (17.5%)
Strokes Gained Total On Short/Easy Courses (17.5%)
Weighted Par-Three (16%)
Weighted Par-Four (13%)
Weighted Par-Five (21%)
Weighted OTT + APP (15%)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group: Before we even discuss the DFS board in the $10,000 range, most gamers will likely take an extremely stars-and-scrubs approach to the week. I am not saying that is the right or wrong way to approach the event, but when we look into the guaranteed nature of this tournament yielding three rounds of golf for all players, and the fact that the Stadium Course on Sunday does have implosion potential that re-enters the mix because of water, we do get a slate that pushes the envelope for what becomes proper from a game theory perspective.
My model believes all five names in the $10,000 section are inside the top 10 of my projected output, creating a unique approach since ownership will become the great decider. That isn't something we can lock into this early in the week on a Monday, but I want everyone out there to note that the board is as stout as you can get near the top.
Jon Rahm ($10,800) - Jon, why the anger? Three top 14 finishes at this *expletive* putting contest shouldn't be viewed as anything but a positive, although my belief is that the outrage stems more from the faulty short iron proximity returns than anything to do with the flat stick. Rahm ranks 62nd in this field in his approach play from within 100 yards, but it will be challenging to find much else wrong with the profile when you go through the entire spectrum of data inside my sheet. If the 28-year-old continues hovering outside the top 10 for ownership, I will ignore the approach metrics.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,500) - We finally saw life from Scottie Scheffler and his putter at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and the carpet-like, perfectly-manicured greens in Palm Springs might be the final piece of the puzzle for him to get himself back across the finish line for the first time since the Masters in April. Scheffler grades as one of six players in this field who ranks inside the top 30 in all six categories that I attached a weight to this week, and he joins Cantlay as the only one in the group to place inside the top 15 for all sections.
Tony Finau ($10,200) - None of this answers how we should handle Finau at his popular ownership mark at this week's American Express, but those playing in season-long leagues might want to grab the American before his price becomes unobtainable. My model believed he should have been the second name off the board in drafts because of his combination of increased events and percentage of purses won, and I like the concept of taking pretty much all other pieces that were picked above him and trying to get an upgrade elsewhere, OR using the reverse of that mentality and using your own 2-for-1 to work a deal.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,100) - From a statistical perspective, there is a reason Patrick Cantlay has finished ninth, second, and ninth here when dating back to 2018. Cantlay graded inside the top 10 in all categories I weighed, including when I dove into recent form and the aforementioned course history returns, and the profile is strong if we can avoid runaway ownership over the next few days. I assume he eventually makes my player pool because of the top-ranked output in my model, but let's keep an eye on it for now.
Xander Schauffele ($10,000) - It is one of those situations where the back injury will plummet Xander Schauffele's usage rate, but let's see where we are in a few days before making a decision. If the returns remain near what they are now, Schauffele has legitimate tournament-winning GPP upside at sub-six percent.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
Ownership will be what filters out this group. It is too early to say.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Early thoughts on the group:
Sungjae Im ($9,800) - I believe this is an excellent bounce-back opportunity for Sungjae Im, but I want to mention how my model noticed an alarming trend regarding his approach numbers. During the last 20 times that Im has started a new streak of losing strokes with his irons -- something he did by dropping 2.7 to the field at Waialae, we have seen him continue that downward path 15 times within one of his subsequent two starts. That means good form continues when he is striking the ball well, and bad results have a habit of compounding, but four top-12 finishes in his career at the AMEX should generate a better floor than he had last weekend.
Will Zalatoris ($9,600) - Whether the answer is Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Brian Harman, Aaron Wise or another route in the $9,000s, we have a handful of solutions we will need to provide throughout the week. Our aggression in the $10,000s will likely be the ultimate decider for how many names we can take here, but my early lean does want to stack the top of the board, even if others are taking a similar approach -- albeit for different reasons. I like Zalatoris' upside, but are we better off playing Finau for $600 more? Let's get back to that over the next few days.
Si Woo Kim ($9,200) - The consensus is going to be that Si Woo Kim's victory has moved him into a territory where he is too expensive, but I am not sure I buy that answer. Sure, we would have gotten him in the $8,000s if it weren't for his triumph in Hawaii, but my model is only using 10% of its weight toward recent form, suggesting the price tag is warranted for the 2021 champion of the event.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
Waiting for ownership.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Cameron Davis ($8,800) - We'll see where the dust settles on Wednesday, but I do anticipate that my ownership projection will trickle down over the next few days. Eighteen percent is what I have as his expected final mark -- a total that would 100% keep me in the game for the week when it comes to playability. Davis' weighted par-five scoring and proximity rank him in the top five of this field.
Taylor Pendrith ($8,000) - If Scottie Scheffler is my favorite target up top because of his leverage, Taylor Pendrith is my preferred play in the $8,000s for the same reason. Pendrith's win equity upside reminds me a little of what we saw last weekend when Si Woo Kim was able to get the job done in a much softer field, but even if the Canadian doesn't ultimately climb the ladder to the very top rung, the contrarian nature of this selection is beyond enticing for what he provides. Theegala will generate a similar mentality if we want to go boom-or-bust versus stars-and-scrubs, which I prefer since it still allows us playability from the first few names on the board but generates the leverage in a varying path.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
Stay tuned for my Wednesday article.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive into over the next few days.
I haven't made a decision yet on Justin Rose ($7,900), but if we go through the seven names from Harris English down to Emiliano Grillo on that list, that is where my early lean would be for DFS plays at the American Express.
Harris English ($7,600), Rickie Fowler ($7,800), Joel Dahmen ($7,600), Alex Smalley ($7,500), Thomas Detry ($7,600), Will Gordon ($7,400) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,600).
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.
This group is why I am not thrilled to play a stars-and-scrubs build, especially when we consider everyone might lean into that route. I'll pick and choose my spots, but I will not find myself exponentially overweight in this section.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Scottie Scheffler ($10,500)
$9,000 - Si Woo Kim ($9,200)
$8,000 - Taylor Pendrith ($8,000)
$7,000 - Harris English ($7,600)
$6,000 - Stewart Cink ($6,800)
Win Big With RotoBaller
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