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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on April 1, 2018. Elliott Baas' MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Today is an odd Sunday schedule, since only eight games are on the main slate at DraftKings. Normally, all teams will be in play on Sunday, but due to travel days we're working with a truncated slate. That means we need to get a little creative, as there is no obvious stack today.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 04/01/2018. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @ElliottBaasBB
DraftKings DFS Pitchers
Jose Quintana - vs. MIA, $11,700
Don’t let Quintana’s 4.15 ERA last season fool you, he was the same rock solid pitcher last year that he’s always been. His 3.68 FIP and 71.4% strand rate suggest that his ERA was a little inflated in 2017. He also posted a career high 26.2% strikeout rate, a big jump from his career 20.9% mark. Quintana faces a depleted Marlins lineup who’s most fearsome hitter, Justin Bour, has a career .292 wOBA against lefties. Matchups don’t get much easier than this. Another plus for Quintana is his ability to go deep into games. With all the quick hooks we’ve seen early in the season Quintana has the longevity we need in DFS. Plus the Cubs’ bullpen has been used heavily over the first couple days of the season because of Jon Lester’s short start and a 17 inning game on Friday, so they'll need some innings from Quintana.
Michael Fulmer - vs. PIT, $7,800
Fulmer compliments Quintana nicely as a number two against Pittsburgh. In 2017, the Pirates posted a .303 wOBA and 85 wRC+ against right handed pitching as a team. That was third worst in the majors ahead of just the Giants and the Padres, and they no longer have Andrew McCutchen. Fulmer doesn’t have big strikeout upside, with just a career 6.84 K/9, but he does keep the ball in the yard with a career 0.81 HR/9 and limit walks with a career 2.28 BB/9. Fulmer is also a good bet to notch a quality start, he delivered 18 of them in 25 starts last season. With the Tigers scheduled for a double header Sunday they’d love Fulmer to give them innings.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Wilson Ramos – C, vs BOS, $2,700
Ramos didn’t miss a beat last season coming off a torn ACL and switching leagues. His .188 ISO in 2017 was nearly identical to his .189 ISO during his breakout 2016 before the injury. He also slugged 11 home runs in 224 plate appearances in Tampa. He’ll be going against Hector Velazquez, who posted a suspiciously low 2.92 ERA last season in 24.2 innings despite several red flags. Velazquez had a 4.58 FIP, .258 BABIP, 1.46 HR/9, and 89.3% strand rate behind that ERA. Velazquez is a vulnerable pitcher and Ramos’ price is too good to pass up.
Justin Smoak – 1B vs NYY, $3,500
Smoak will be facing Yankees righty Sonny Gray on Sunday. Despite a 2017 bounce back from a disastrous 2016, Gray was susceptible to the long ball after going from Oakland to the Bronx. In pinstripes Gray surrendered 11 of his 19 home runs allowed in just two months, good for 1.5 HR/9. Gray also post an ugly 4.87 FIP as a Yankee, and his performance was aided by a .246 BABIP. On the flipside the switch-hitting Smoak clobbered 31 of his 38 homers against righties in 2017 with a .266 ISO and .359 wOBA. Gray’s performance and reputation push Smoak’s price down, but this is a power bat against a homer prone pitcher.
Whit Merrifield – 2B vs CWS, $4,100
In his short career Merrifield has displayed a set of skills that allow him to contribute in multiple ways. His speed and 16.5% strikeout rate make him a good bet to get hits, his .172 ISO last year shows he’s got a little pop, and his 34 steals last year lead the American League. He’s facing 24-year-old Reynaldo Lopez on Sunday, and while Lopez could become a good pitcher someday hasn’t shown any signs of his ability at the major league level. In 47.2 innings last season Lopez had a 4.72 ERA, 4.75 FIP, and 1.32 HR/9. He also had a measly 5.66 K/9 in 2017. Putting a good contact hitter like Merrifield against a pitcher that can’t get strikeouts like Lopez is a recipe for hits.
Kris Bryant – 3B vs MIA, $5,400
Bryant is worth paying up for against Marlins lefty Dillon Peters. Bryant demolishes lefties, with a career .405 wOBa and .263 ISO against southpaws. Peters struggled in his first taste of the big leagues, with a 5.17 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and horrendous 5.46 BB/9. Bryant is the pricey bat to make room for today, we just need to hope that Peters can get it over the plate.
Paul DeJong – SS vs NYM, $3,400
Opposing pitcher Steven Matz is priced surprisingly high at $8,200 given his poor 2017. Last year he had a 6.08 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 1.62 HR/9 in 66.2 innings. Of course some of his bad performance was injury related, as Matz has shown better performance in the past, but his high price makes Cardinals hitters affordable against the disabled list regular. Paul DeJong raked against lefties in his breakout 2017, with a .313 ISO, .952 OPS, and .392 wOBA against left-handed pitching last year. Even if Steven Matz is fully healthy, those numbers put DeJong in play against any lefty at this price.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Marcell Ozuna – OF vs NYM, $3,700
This is another Cardinal bat that’s underpriced against Matz. It’s not that Matz is a bad pitcher that needs to be targeted, but Cardinals hitters are priced very favorably against him. Ozuna has been excellent against lefties throughout his career, with a .356 wOBA and .835 OPS against them. He displayed a legitimate power breakout last season with a .237 ISO and 37 home runs, and is more than reasonable at $3,700.
J.D. Martinez – OF vs TB, $4,400
Martinez doesn’t get enough credit for how good his 2017 season was. Last season his .387 ISO was higher than both Aaron Judge (.343) and Giancarlo Stanton (.350). He also hit 45 home runs in 489 plate appearances, giving him a better HR/PA than Judge and Stanton too. Martinez has as much power as anyone, which makes him a great deal at this price. Opposing starter Jacob Faria had a nice 2017 with a 3.43 ERA, but his 4.12 FIP and 1.14 HR/9 make him susceptible enough for Martinez to take advantage.
Kevin Kiermaier – OF vs TB, $3,300
We need to target Hector Velazquez one more time, and Kiermaier makes for a good play. His overall numbers get dragged down because he never sits against lefties, but Kiermaier takes advantage of righties. Over his career Kiermaier has a .337 wOBA and .188 ISO against right-handed pitching. Kiermaier bats high in the order and has the ability to contribute with his bat and his legs. At $3,300 he makes for a great play against Velazquez.
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