RADIO
Week 5 did not really offer many surprises in terms of the overall picture of teams. We learned a few little lessons, such as the Atlanta Falcons offense is just flat-out bad on the road and we never know which Buffalo Bills team is going to show up. Entering Week 6, we, unfortunately, lose two of the most exciting offenses, in the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots, from this slate. The good news is the Jacksonville Jaguars defense are playing the Dallas Cowboys and we were not really relying on Cowboys players anyway. This week the Falcons lottery falls with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so do not be surprised to find a number of their offensive weapons below. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 6.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, early week performances, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks
Matt Ryan - ATL vs. TB (DK $6,800)
He might be the highest priced player at the position on the slate, but there is every reason to believe Ryan will be worth it. His down week against the Steelers proved that we still cannot trust him on the road even against a bad defense. This week he returns home to face yet another bad defense in the Buccaneers. In his three home games this season, Ryan is averaging 355 passing yards and 3.33 passing touchdowns per game. His current completion rate at home is 76.5% and he has a quarterback rating of 137.9. In addition, his offensive line is allowing just two sacks per game at home compared to five per game on the road. This game is likely to be a shootout with the over/under set at 57.5 in most places, the second highest line of the week. The final point is that this is a must-win game for the Falcons or they will slip to 1-5, which is virtually unrecoverable.
Jameis Winston - TB @ ATL (DK $5,800)
The Falcons defense ranks fourth against the quarterback heading into this week and actually, that number is a little misleading. The only reason they are not higher is due to their good performance against Nick Foles when they had their defense intact in Week 1. The group is completely decimated and they look a mess, unable to tackle and losing assignments. In contrast, the Buccaneers pass catchers have been on fire this year and they are coming off a bye week, giving them seven extra days to prepare to face this defense. Winston looked ugly in his first outing against the Bears, but there are extenuating circumstances. Firstly, he came in with his team chasing the game and needing to force things. Secondly, he had been away from the team three weeks and had to share practice snaps leading into Week 4. Finally, he was facing one of the best defenses in football this year, in their backyard, with the crowd right behind the team. Now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in football having had two weeks of taking starters snaps. If he doesn't perform in this game then he probably doesn't even deserve to be a starter in the NFL again.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 6 Picks
Todd Gurley - LAR @ DEN (DK $10,100)
I do not know how I cannot pick this guy. Yes, you are going to have to be clever with your lineup to fit him in but his production has been worth it. Through five games he has nine total touchdowns and two three-touchdown games. He is averaging 20.2 rushes and 3.8 receptions per game and a combined 129 yards per game. In addition, the Rams are going into Denver for this game, a team that currently ranks eighth-worst against running backs, with some questions marks. Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp left the game against Seattle with concussions and although both are expected to play Sunday I still think they might be eased back in. The other question mark is the weather in Denver this weekend. The high on Sunday is currently expected to be 28 and by game time it is likely to be slightly lower. In addition, there is a good chance this might be the first snow game of the year. That sounds like perfect conditions for a slugfest game, which features a lot of running. Exactly the type of game you pay Todd Gurley to win you.
Jordan Howard - CHI @ MIA (DK $6,500)
Howard has been disappointing this year but I think this is his bounce-back game on Sunday. The Dolphins rank fifth against running backs this season and have given up over 15 fantasy points to lead running backs each of the last two weeks. The most damming stat for me is that Joe Mixon carried the ball 22 times last week despite the Bengals trailing the entire game until the fourth quarter. Mixon's style is fairly close to Howard's and I can see the Bears utilizing Howard early in this game and then again in the second half to put the game away. This one is the pick I feel most uncertain about, because of the presence of Tarik Cohen, but the running back position is lacking depth and Howard's price here feels like a good deal to me.
Chris Carson - SEA @ OAK (DK $4,400)
Ah, the London games, where weird stuff always seems to happen. It always feels like one team does not turn up for these games and if I have to pick between Jon Gruden or Pete Carroll having his team ready then I will go Carroll all day long. The Raiders rank eighth-worst against running back, surrendering on average over 100 yards and a touchdown per game. Carson for his part has rushed for over 100-yards in each of his last two games. The only question mark is around touches, as he appears in a time-share with Mike Davis. However, at this price, it is hard to pass up a runner as dynamic as Carson facing a defense as poor as the Raiders.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks
Mohamed Sanu - ATL vs. TB (DK $4,800)
If I am getting Gurley in my lineup, I need to save money and for that reason, I will target Sanu as the pass catcher in Atlanta to own this week. I expect Julio Jones to also have a big day, and a bounce back after last week but he is a lot more expensive. Sanu has now seen 23 targets the last three weeks, having touchdowns in two of the games and over 100-receiving yards in the other. This game is going to be another shootout, where the total likely gets into the mid-60s and the Buccaneers rank second worst against wide receivers for fantasy points this season.
DeSean Jackson - TB @ ATL (DK $5,900)
Jackson is having a monster year so far. At some point, regression is likely, given he is averaging 24.9 yards per reception and has a catch rate 12% higher than at any other time in his career, but I do not think it will be this week. The Falcons defense is ranked fifth against wide receivers this season, and I explained above why that should be higher. Jackson has been having his success against deep balls and we have seen evidence of the Falcons inexperienced safeties struggling in this regard, with John Ross' long touchdown being a prime example. Jackson may only have five receptions at a maximum this week but I think close to 100-yards and a touchdown is more than possible. Plus at this price, he is too good to pass up in a potential shootout.
Tyler Boyd - CIN vs. PIT (DK $6,000)
Boyd is coming off a down week against the Dolphins last week. To be fair the whole offense seemed to struggle against the Dolphins, who rank seventh best against wide receivers in fantasy. Last week we saw the Falcons play the Steelers and Jones was effectively eliminated by the coverage of Joe Haden. There is a good chance that we could see Haden go toe-to-toe with A.J. Green this week and if so Dalton will need to look elsewhere. When that has been the case he has gone to Boyd, who has two 100-yard receiving games and two touchdowns so far this season. As a unit the Steelers pass defense ranks fourth against receivers and the Bengals offensive line should keep Dalton clean for him to find Boyd plenty of times this week.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks
Austin Hooper - ATL vs. TB (DK $3,500)
Last week Hooper faced the second-worst defense against tight ends and this week he gets to face the worst. Hooper set season highs in targets (11), receptions (9) and yards (77) in Week 5. This week I think he can get close to those numbers again and possibly even add a touchdown as well. I expect the Falcons offense to have a lot more success this week and while Hooper might not get the same number of targets there is a good chance he sees more near or in the red zone. These two weeks may be the only time this season that it is not strictly about touchdowns for Hooper.
Antonio Gates - LAC @ CLE (DK $2,800)
Again this is thinking about how to work Gurley into a lineup. Gates is not having a great year, averaging just 21.4 yards per game and has one touchdown on the season. However, this will probably be the best pass rush the Chargers have faced and Rivers will need to get the ball out. The Browns have not been terrible against tight ends (14th worst) this season but they have not faced anyone of great reputation. The best they have faced is Jared Cook who has 110 yards and two touchdowns and Jesse James who had 60-yards on three receptions. Those numbers demonstrate that Gates can have a good day and is a player I think has a high ceiling for a bargain basement price this week.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 5 Picks
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (DK $3,300)
The Dolphins are the third worst team against fantasy defenses in terms of average fantasy points scored by the defense. The Chicago Bears are arguably the best defense in the NFL this season. The Bengals had two defensive touchdowns last week and they are perhaps the only team the Dolphins have faced who have a comparable defensive line to the Bears. I expect Khalil Mack to have a big day in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (DK $2,500)
The Jets rank 11th against fantasy defenses and despite their big week last week I think the Colts can have success. The Colts are not doing anything special but they have been having success. Before I lock this pick in on Sunday I will make sure to check the Colts inactives. If they are riddled with injuries, I might look elsewhere. However, if they have a decent unit then they are ultimately facing a rookie quarterback, and had a decent amount of success against the Patriots run game last week.
