Deeper Draft Sleepers - Wide Receivers

September 8, 2020

Bruce Matson analyzes deeper draft sleepers at wide receiver for 2020 fantasy football drafts. These WRs could be breakouts and undervalued picks based on ADP.

Most fantasy managers are done with their drafts and are waiting for the season to start. For those of you who are still drafting or are already looking to the waiver wire for help, just know there are plenty of late-round sleepers at wide receiver who could provide a boost to your fantasy team.

A lot of these players can be considered diamonds in the rough and could be sitting there waiting for you to pick them up off the waiver wire.

Let’s take a look at some deep sleepers for the 2020 season.

Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts

Injuries prevented Campbell from taking off during his rookie season last year. He is in a good spot for this season where he is projected to command a large percentage of the snaps out of the slot for the Indianapolis Colts. During his final season at Ohio State, he saw 86.81 percent of his receptions from the slot, making his role in this current offense the perfect situation for his set of skills. Campbell has the potential to be one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands. He had 809 yards after the catch during his senior season. Philip Rivers is very accurate when targeting the short to intermediate sectors of the football field where Campbell is expected to see most of his targets.

What makes him dangerous after the catch is his home run hitting speed. He ran an electric 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine and he also measured in with a 97th percentile burst score. The athletic metrics translate to the tape. He can quickly change gears and pull away from the entire defense once he hits the open field. His long speed can also be used to stretch the defense, making him a multifaceted asset for the Colts’ offense.

We didn’t see him get used much during his rookie season. Since we don’t have a preseason, we don’t fully know how he’s truly transitioning to the NFL game. However, his 177 ADP price tag makes him worth the risk. More than likely, he got drafted with a mid to late-round pick in your fantasy draft. Even if he’s currently being rostered by another manager in your league, he’s still worth monitoring just in case he has a slow start to the season and gets released to the waiver wire in your league. Some players churn out production at the beginning of the season and others need a few weeks to get a better feel of what their offense is trying to do on the field.

Steven Sims, Washington Football Team

Sims is flying under the radar with an ADP of 279, making him the WR69 selected in drafts. He’s an afterthought in most leagues, but he could hold standalone value this season.

Courtesy of Rotoviz

After recording a mini breakout in 2019 where he posted 15 or more fantasy points during the last three weeks of the season, Sims is going unnoticed in most fantasy drafts. During the last five weeks of the season, Sims saw a 26 percent target share while also receiving a 29 percent share of the air yards. The work rate is enough to propel him into being a fantasy-relevant asset if he can establish a foothold as one of the team’s key contributors in the passing game.

The Washington Football team is expecting to be trailing in a lot of their games this season, creating numerous game scripts where they will need to lean on the pass to remain competitive. More passing volume means more opportunities for Sims.

With him going undrafted in many fantasy drafts, Sims might be best left on the waiver wire. Fantasy managers should monitor his progress throughout the season just in case they need to pluck him off waivers.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals

Ross’ career has been a colossal disappointment. During his three-year career, he has only been able to churn out 49 catches for 716 yards and ten touchdowns. Injuries have been an issue since his inception into the league, causing him to appear in just 24 games. With Ross rarely ever on the field, his fantasy value is nonexistent since he has been out of sight and out of mind.

Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

Speed kills and Ross has enough speed to burn just about every defensive back in the league. As we all know, Joe Burrow will be the team’s new starting quarterback. He has a big arm and he’s accurate with the deep ball, which plays into Ross’ skill set.

Cincinnati likes to use him as the team’s deep threat. Last year, when on the field, he owned a 34 percent share of the team’s air yards while seeing a 15.6 average depth of target. He just needs to convert one or two deep targets per game to be productive in fantasy.

Courtesy of Rotoviz

We saw what Ross is capable of when he posted back to back WR1 weeks during the start of the season in 2019. In those two games, he was targeted 20 times, seeing 247 air yards. This led to him catching 11 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns. Things looked very prosperous for Ross before he missed eight straight games due to a broken collar bone.

If it weren’t for the injuries and the fact that he has a lot of competition for snaps and targets this year in the offense, Ross would be a more popular draft choice in the later rounds of drafts. Not to mention the team didn’t pick up the fifth-year option of his rookie deal.

His deep speed will present him with an honest chance of seeing a sizable snap share. However, the addition of Tee Higgins along with Auden Tate balling out in training camp means Ross will need to prove his worth to the offense as soon as possible.

If he was a reliable option, he would be a trendy mid to late-round draft choice. Since he’s spent most of his career missing from the starting lineup due to injuries, he has become more of a forgotten asset. The market’s lack of awareness could be our gain since he is falling in drafts to a 182 ADP in drafts. There’s also a chance that he’s currently on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues.

We don’t know what a full season of Ross running routes on the field looks like. He could have WR1 potential. The risk is very limited considering his price tag is borderline free.

Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams drafted Jefferson in the second round of this year’s draft. Even though he was drafted in the top-100, he still flew under the radar in both redraft and dynasty. This was mainly because he lacked the prolific college production compared to his peers from this year’s draft class.

What makes Jefferson a deep sleeper in fantasy is the lack of competition on the Rams’ roster. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds are the returning starters from the previous season. The team traded away Brandin Cooks to the Houston Texans, leaving 72 vacated targets. If Kupp or Woods were to go down with an injury, Jefferson would see a massive increase in snap share and targets.

Even with the veterans still on the field, we could see a breakout from Jefferson during his rookie season. Reports are stating that he has been phenomenal in camp and is geared to be a contributor to the team early this season. Due to his play, he could command targets early in the season.

The Rams led the league with a 20.79 play rate while trailing by seven or more points, which is a situation where the team tends to lean toward the pass. In 2019, the Rams ranked second in the league with a 62 percent pass rate. The offense should be facing similar game scripts this season, allowing them to pass the ball just as much as last year while also keeping an up-tempo course of an attack.

On average, he is currently going off the board as WR88 in drafts, making him a super deep flier in fantasy. He’s not even a draftable option in most leagues. Jefferson is a player you either mark your flag with that last pick of your draft or a player you keep close tabs on so you’re not late to the party when it comes time to pluck him off the waiver wire.

Andy Isabella, Arizona Cardinals

After a rookie season where Isabella could only muster nine catches for 189 yards and one touchdown, it appears he has faded into obscurity during the offseason. In drafts, he is currently being selected as the WR97, making him free in redraft leagues.

Courtesy of Playerprofiler

Fantasy general managers need to realize Isabella has a lot of potential in one of the most prolific offenses in the league. He has a multifaceted skill set that will allow him to take snaps in the slot and on the outside as a deep threat. At the combine, he registered a 4.31 40-yard dash, which insists that he has more than enough speed to stretch the field. During his senior season at UMass, 32.67 percent of his receptions came from the slot.

Arizona wants to run a fast-paced offense where they spread the ball around to all their playmakers. Last season, the team ranked fourth in the league with a 28.35-second play rate while in neutral game script. The team will try and replicate that approach this year and will more than likely be more successful at sustaining drives due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.

The competition for targets is preventing Isabella from developing into a household name. Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald will see a large portion of the snaps. However, if Isabella can earn more of a snap share this year, then he could see some fantasy-relevant weeks.

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