RADIO
Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his RBC Heritage DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Hideki Matsuyama finally made himself a major champion, capturing the 2021 Masters in spectacular fashion. While it has seemed like a long time coming for one of the best ball-strikers in the world, it is important to remember that the Japanese sensation is still under the age of 30. Perhaps the triumph will catapult him into a different level of weekly production now that he has the weight of his nation off his back, but that is an answer we will have to get in time.
As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the RBC Heritage. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have another successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RBC Heritage
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Harbour Town
7,099 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
After being the second tournament back from COVID-19, the RBC Heritage returns to its usual stop on the schedule. Initially built in 1969, Harbour Town is a Pete Dye track that Jack Nicklaus partially designed. That combination provides the strategical layout that you might expect, and even though the property was Nicklaus' first time helping to develop a course, it was masterfully pieced together by all parties involved.
Measuring in at just under 7,100 yards, don't be confused by its lack of length. Tree-lined fairways will help to disguise some of the heavy wind that can come into play, but the coastal layout is unforgiving, with gusts and sand traps always looming around the corner. Narrow landing areas off the tee will place a heavy emphasis on finding the short grass, and it is one of the many reasons why Harbour Town always produces one of the lowest driving distances on tour.
Precision iron play will be at a premium, as the course features some of the smallest greens on tour. That point is emphasized by golfers hitting under 58% of greens in regulation, making scrambling and around the green prowess a must. The three par-threes measure between 175-200 yards, and all produce birdies at under a 12 percent rate. On top of that, even though all three par-fives are reachable in two shots, the small putting surfaces yield an eagle frequency of just 2.7%, 2.0% and 0.4%, respectively. Par-four scoring will be needed with 11 holes taking place in that range each day, and golfers that can create opportunities from between 125 to 200 yards will be rewarded handsomely.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Harbour Town | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 267 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 57% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.39 | 0.56 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 13/1, Patrick Cantlay at 17/1 and Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa at 22/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted Ball Striking 20%
- Weighted Par-Four Scoring L50 20%
- Proximity 125-200 Yards 15%
- ATG + Sand Save 15%
- Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye L50 10%
- Strokes Gained Total Bermuda L50 10%
- Strokes Gained Total Moderate To Severe Wind L50 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($11,600)
The price tag and current form will provide skepticism for most regarding Dustin Johnson, but it feels like a relatively good spot to take a shot in GPP contests. The big-hitting American ranks first compared to the field on Pete Dye tracks over his previous 50 rounds and also places inside the top-five in strokes gained approach, weighted par-four scoring, overall birdie or better percentage and strokes gained tee to green.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,900)
After burning the DFS industry at the Masters with his missed cut, what will be the consensus around Patrick Cantlay? In my opinion, anything other than a sense of optimism feels like a mistake, as Cantlay has finished third, seventh and third here in his three career trips. It is hard to argue against most gamers preferring to drop down to Webb Simpson to save a few dollars, but the 29-year-old feels like someone you need to consider in all builds.
Webb Simpson ($10,700)
Perhaps the safest of the $10,000 group, Webb Simpson has a lot of going for him at the RBC Heritage. Always a threat when given a Bermuda test, especially that of the shorter variety, the American ranks first in my model for strokes gained total on Bermuda, strokes gained total in moderate to severe wind, par-four average, overall birdie percentage and scrambling. Simpson will be popular, but it is hard to find too many faults for the event's defending champion.
Collin Morikawa ($10,500)
When the putter cooperates, we know Collin Morikawa is a threat to take home any title. The young American already features four wins on tour in just over 40 starts, but the recent form hasn't been quite as good lately - even if he does have a victory at the WGC Concession thrown into the mix. If we remove that triumph, Morikawa has failed to crack the top-15 in the last 10 weeks of PGA Tour action, but I don't believe that is a reason to remove him from your GPP player pool. Cash-game participants might want to look the other way, but Morikawa's irons and accuracy off the tee will always make him a threat at a venue that removes distance from the equation.
Cameron Smith ($10,200)
If I were to fade anyone in this range, it most likely would be Cameron Smith. The Aussie has failed to crack the top-25 here in four starts, and while he is a different player than he was a few years ago, some of the Bermuda and Pete Dyde statistics have me worried about how he fits the track. I believe an argument can be made for GPP participants to give him a shot, but it will take MME contests to work him into my player pool.
Daniel Berger ($10,000)
Let's get last week's Masters debacle out of our head for Daniel Berger. To me, Berger is a golfer that always performs better at your precision tests that are under 7,200 yards, and it is not as if we haven't seen this exact story here as of late, with the American missing the cut at the Waste Management and taking down Pebble Beach in his next start. It is a bold claim to expect that sort of production again, but I do think DK participants can roster Berger with some level of ease.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
There are some options to consider in this territory, but it is not as if we can't find a few negatives when breaking down the group. Will Zalatoris ($9,700) and Corey Conners ($9,300) have played an overwhelming amount of golf in the last 10 weeks, and that is before we even consider the grueling four days they had in contention at Augusta. I worry slightly that Paul Casey ($9,200) might be on the other side of the tracks after compiling top-10 finish after top-10 finish before his recent cold run, and I have similar concerns for Sungjae Im ($9.000), who continued to struggle with his irons at the Masters. I believe Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,100) makes the most sense for cash-game builds, and it would be Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500) that most intrigues me as a GPP target.
$8,000 Range
I think the $8,000 range is where you want to be from a contrarian sense, but the funny thing about that is it still features the current highest projected owned player in Abraham Ancer ($8,900). There are two frames of mind when it comes to Ancer this week:
#1. The ownership should be viewed as a secondary concern because of his immaculate fit for the venue
#2. Ancer's lack of win upside exponentially decreases his playability at 20% ownership in GPP builds.
Unfortunately, the issue with the question is that the 30-year-old golfer most likely won't burn lineups to the ground with a missed cut, but I always lean towards pivoting when I don't think a player is going to win in these top-15 price tag type spots. Ancer makes perfect sense as a safe cash-game player, but his recent finishes of 26th, 23rd, 18th, 22nd and 18th won't exactly scream win equity to the naked eye.
The fortunate part of trying to look elsewhere is that the $8,000 section is riddled with potential. Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800) is arguably my favorite GPP target on the board, and the entire group of Brian Harman ($8,700), Sergio Garcia ($8,600), Shane Lowry ($8,500), Harris English ($8,400) Billy Horschel ($8,200), Kevin Na ($8,100) and Matt Kuchar ($8,000) can all have strong cases made for them in one sense or another. I'd let game type drive me for where I will go in this range, but I want to make it clear that Ancer is far from a fade. It will just come down to how aggressive you want to get on his ownership. I see no reason for playing him anywhere near his consensus mark, which means I will likely find myself underweight because of the negative trends I mentioned previously.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$7,000 Range
There are many spots to go in the $7,000 section, but here are a few of my favorite plays.
Kevin Kisner ($7,700) - He enters the week under the radar after missed cut at Players and Masters, but I think Harbour Town provides him a better chance to find success. Kisner has provided two top-11s here in the last four years and ranks eighth in my model for driving accuracy.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700) - Bezuidenhout is one of the best values I have on the board and becomes even more intriguing because of his low ownership total. His 28th here last season shows that he likes the track, and he grades out as my number 1 player when it comes to strokes gained around the green.
Ian Poulter ($7,600) -It is sometimes difficult to ignore course history, and Ian Poulter brings it out in full effect, posting four straight top-14s at the track.
Kevin Streelman ($7,300) -A sneaky option to win this event, Kevin Streelman isn't getting as much traction as he should because of his missed cut here last season. It is worth noting that his failed venture came right after the COVID return, meaning his 6th and 7th in the previous two years should be a better indicator.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Ryan Moore ($6,900), Chase Seiffert ($6,700), Ben Martin ($6,400), Scott Piercy ($6,300), Will Gordon ($6,500)
***Plays are not limited to those options, but they are some of the ones that popped in my initial model.
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
