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Mike's college football Week 10 expert picks and predictions. Get the best against the spread picks, betting trends, and score projections for the top matchups.
I dropped another game last week at 26-27, but I was able to cut my season deficit in half thanks to betting on the right games. I still feel that I'm heading in the right direction.
This week was supposed to be the marquee week of the season for college football. Most of the marquee glare is gone, but I see several good spots to make some money.
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 10 - (11/1/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five, not a top 10, all of them! Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction, as I am having issues locating articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you have knowledge of computers and can help locate defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
Penn State at (1) Ohio State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, I'm not going to throw any shade because I thought this was going to be a huge game as well. Now it's only interesting because it will be Penn State's first game without James Franklin on the sideline for over a decade.
Last time Penn State was a 20+ point underdog they won outright vs Wisconsin in 2013.
They were 19.5 point dogs vs Ohio State in 2016 and won outright with a game winning blocked field goal return.
Will they make it 3 in a row on Saturday? pic.twitter.com/18c5CFZoVQ
— Marty McRide (@MartyMcRide) October 31, 2025
Wouldn't this just be the most James Franklin thing ever? The team that he put together (minus Drew Allar, who is out) could somehow beat the mighty Buckeyes without him coaching the team. It's not going to happen, but it would be amusing.
Pick: Ohio State -19.5
(9) Vanderbilt at (20) Texas (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Judging by the line, Vegas is convinced that Arch Manning is playing. Judging by the absurd juice on Texas, Vegas knows that he's playing. I'll make my pick assuming the same. The juice on -2.5 is ridiculous, so buy it at -3 and take the push if you have to. Unless, of course, you're taking Vanderbilt.
Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5
(10) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at SMU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. Miami hasn't played a game outside of the state of Florida yet this season...and they still didn't make that stretch undefeated.
Pick: SMU +10.5
West Virginia at (22) Houston (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
TCU struggling to cover had nothing to do with West Virginia and everything to do with the TCU offense.
Pick: Houston -13.5
Rutgers at Illinois (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I understand this line, but the Illinois defense has struggled this year. They have struggled enough, and Rutgers has hung around with most teams.
Pick: Rutgers +13.5
Duke at Clemson (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Call me crazy, but I still think this matchup between Darian Mensah and Cade Klubnik will be entertaining. Duke's defensive philosophy is to make teams throw to beat you. Clemson might be good enough to do it.
Pick: Clemson -3.5
Central Florida at Baylor (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That hook makes me nervous since Baylor's defense has been so bad. The big games are down I-35 in Austin and up I-35 in Dallas. Most people in Texas don't even care about this game.
Pick: Baylor -3.5
UAB at Connecticut (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate betting on UConn. They are way too inconsistent. But when this team is on, look out!
Pick: Connecticut -11.5
Army at Air Force (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still see Army as the far better team.
Pick: Army +1.5
Navy at North Texas (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've seen enough of the Navy defense to know that the Mean Green may need to add another digit to the home side of the scoreboard.
Pick: North Texas -6.5
Buffalo at Bowling Green (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This may be the worst football disguised as decent football that you will ever see. Buffalo should have lost to UMass, and Bowling Green lost to Kent. There is no right answer here, besides leaving this game alone.
Pick: Bowling Green -2.5
Arizona State at Iowa State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is up five or more points after the announcement that Sam Leavitt will not play and Jordyn Tyson is doubtful. This is going to be a fun one for Cyclones fans. Jeff Sims ain't it.
Pick: Iowa State -7.5
East Carolina (-5.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one is a bit surprising. If this were at East Carolina, maybe, but not in Philly.
Pick: Temple +5.5
(16) Louisville (-10.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kyron Drones had his best game of the year last week. So did Issac Brown of Louisville. I really don't like that hook. It's enough to move me this time.
Pick: Virginia Tech +10.5
New Mexico at UNLV (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New Mexico looked good last week. Good enough to make me very nervous about this one.
Pick: UNLV -4.5
(2) Indiana (-21.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The show-no-mercy attitude of Indiana has started to permeate the betting lines. It's still not enough to move me...yet.
Pick: Indiana -21.5
(5) Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm very surprised that the line is this low. The amount of juice on Florida means a lot of sites are pushing to Georgia. I'm fine with that. Anything under 10, I'm good!
Florida Gators trends going into week 10 against Georgia
1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The O/U has gone UNDER in 9/11 games.
The O/U has gone OVER in 4/5 games vs Georgia.
The total has gone OVER in 14/19 games vs SEC Teams#CollegeFootball— The Sideline Report (@Mikebalotti__) October 31, 2025
Pick: Georgia -7.5
(12) Notre Dame (-27.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Notre Dame smoked the Hogs by more in Fayetteville.
Pick: Notre Dame -27.5
(13) Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't get this one at all. Behren Morton will play for the Red Raiders. K-State is playing better, but Texas Tech has by far the best run defense in the country. K-State is a run-first team.
Pick: Texas Tech -7.5
Michigan State at Minnesota (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Minnesota is still the better team, but this line is in the tank. It's down two points already, and there is zero juice on the Gophers. That makes me nervous enough to lower the bet.
Pick: Minnesota -3.5
Pittsburgh (-14.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the half, but I have zero reason to pick Stanford.
Pick: Pittsburgh -14.5
Delaware at Liberty (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Why? This seems off. Liberty's home field isn't that much of an advantage.
Pick: Delaware +3.5
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rodney Tisdale Jr., who led WKU to victory last week and won C-USA Freshman of the week in the process, has been named the starter for this week’s game vs. New Mexico State.
Maverick McIvor still banged up apparently pic.twitter.com/QQcACAOWLQ
— Barstool Western (@BarstoolWestern) October 27, 2025
With the way that Rodney Tisdale Jr. looked last week, I'm still comfortable with this line.
Pick: Western Kentucky -8.5
Fresno State at Boise State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like much of anything about this line. Boise has beaten on lesser teams and struggled against good ones. That said, I think UNLV is better than Fresno, and the Rebels still got smoked on the Smurf Turf.
Pick: Boise State -17.5
Old Dominion (-16.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
ODU has struggled lately, and they're on the road. I don't know about this one.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +16.5
Louisiana at South Alabama (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low with all of the talent on the South Alabama offense (QB Bishop Davenport, RB Kentrel Bullock, and WR Devin Voisin).
Pick: South Alabama -3.5
(15) Virginia (-5.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This seems high for a Virginia spread. If they can't take it to overtime or win on an unlikely play in the last two minutes, I'm not sure the Wahoos will know how to react...
Pick: Virginia -5.5
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs are going to have problems with Taylen Green. Likely, there will be too many problems to overcome.
Pick: Arkansas -4.5
Oklahoma State at Kansas (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Really? With that defense? I can't trust this at all.
Pick: Oklahoma State +24.5
Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Western at home for anything under a touchdown. These are not even teams.
Pick: Western Michigan -5.5
South Carolina at (7) Mississippi (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That feels a little high at first sight, but the Carolina defense has struggled, especially on the road.
Pick: Mississippi -12.5
Purdue at (21) Michigan (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know...Michigan isn't built to cover these lines.
Pick: Purdue +21.5
Arizona (-4.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Utah stomped the Ralphies in Salt Lake with a backup quarterback last week. Vegas did watch that game, right?
Pick: Arizona -4.5
Wyoming at San Diego State (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aztecs are demolishing every Mountain West team right now. This feels low.
Pick: San Diego State +10.5
(8) Georgia Tech (-5.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Brent Key finally turned Haynes King loose. This could be a fun month for Tech fans.
Pick: Georgia Tech -5.5
(18) Oklahoma at (14) Tennessee (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I could see a close game. I could see a blowout. The only thing that would actually surprise me is an Oklahoma win. John Mateer in the second half against Mississippi was brutal to watch.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
(23) USC (-4.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Chilly Lincoln forecast? Dana Holgorsen says bring it.
USC brings 530 yards a game; Nebraska brings a defense that hasn’t allowed 400 yet.
Cold weather, hot matchup. 🌡️🔥 #Huskers #GBRhttps://t.co/Bc7byJRE8u pic.twitter.com/qAjlkLwm8Y— Steven Sipple (@steven_sipple) October 28, 2025
It's supposed to be 48 degrees at kickoff and down into the high 30s after halftime. USC has been practicing in a 90-degree heat wave. The last time the Trojans played a game at 48 degrees was against Notre Dame in 2023. They got blown out.
Pick: Nebraska +4.5
Kentucky at Auburn (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What? 10.5? Can Auburn even score that many?
Pick: Kentucky +10.5
Washington State (-3.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Oregon State can't pass and can't play defense. It looks like a Pac-2 title for Wazzu.
Pick: Washington State -3.5
Wake Forest at Florida State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This seems way, way off. Wake has won three of the last four, and FSU hasn't won a conference game in 13 months.
Pick: Wake Forest +9.5
Arkansas State at Troy (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the hook, but Arkansas State has not played well on the road.
Pick: Troy -7.5
(17) Cincinnati at (24) Utah (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is a ton of juice on the Cincinnati side. Utah has almost none. Vegas is begging us to bet on Utah. It feels like a sucker bet.
Pick: Cincinnati +10.5
Hawaii at San Jose State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Don't mind me, I'm just here for the quarterback showdown between Micah Alejado and Walker Eget.
Pick: San Jose State -1.5
16 of my 52 bets were for two points, so I'm still part chicken. The seven minimum bets will say the same. We still have some good spots with 17 three-point bets and 10 four-point bets. I only maxed two out this week.
