Don't Stop Believing - Carson Wentz as a Fantasy QB1 in 2021

March 29, 2021

Bruce Matson makes a case for Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz as a QB1 in fantasy football in 2021.

The Philadelphia Eagles just recently traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 second-round pick. The second-round pick will instantly turn into a 2022 first-round pick if Wentz plays 75% of the snaps or play 70% of the snaps and leads the Colts into the playoffs.

Wentz’s career has been a roller coaster and 2020 hit its lowest valley. Injuries plagued the Eagles’ offensive unit. The team had to rely on second-string pass-catchers during a large portion of the season. The train finally came off the tracks when out of sheer desperation, the team decided to bench Wentz for rookie Jalen Hurts. The following week, Hurts led the team to a 24-21 victory over the New Orleans Saints.

While Hurts is seeing his ADP rise in early mocks and his stock continues to climb, Wentz is being overlooked as a late-round backup at best. But what if a change of scenery is just what he needed to revive his career?

Ups and Downs

Before his 2020 debacle, Wentz’s career had been riddled with injuries. An ACL injury ended his season early in 2017. He was able to return to the field the following year but had the season cut short due to a vertebral fracture.

From a fantasy scoring perspective, Wentz has been very boom or bust. He has two QB1 seasons on his career along with three back-end QB2 seasons. Throughout his career, he has produced nine top-five weeks, adding up to 13.24 percent of his total games played. He landed in the top-12, QB1 status, during 47.06 percent of his games played. On just 46.75 percent of his games played, Wentz produced QB2 or worse results with seven games landing outside the top-25 at his position.

During his best season in 2017, Wentz averaged 22.06 fantasy points per game. His best performance that year equated to 27.91 fantasy points and his worst still managed to produce 16.91 fantasy points. During his other QB1 season in 2019, he averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game. However, that season was his most promising from a counting stat perspective with a total of 292.86 fantasy points.

New Supporting Cast

It’s a new year, a new team, and possibly a new Wentz. He will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. PFF graded them as the seventh-best pass-blocking unit in the league. RB Jonathan Taylor is a star in the making and a type of talent at running back that Wentz never had the opportunity of working with when he was in Philadelphia. Taylor averaged 10.3 yards after the catch per reception during his rookie season.

There’s a lot of ambiguity at the wide receiver position which could pose a threat to Wentz hitting QB1 status in 2021. T.Y. Hilton is still on the market as a free agent. The team needs Michael Pittman Jr. to step up in his second season to help the offense. Parris Campbell will need to stay healthy and stretch the field with his speed to add a new dimension to the offensive game plan.

There’s a chance the team drafts another wide receiver to enhance the depth chart. As of right now, we have to speculate from what’s on the current roster. We don’t know for sure if they will draft another receiver. However, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities and it’s a really deep wide receiver class where the Colts could bring in a player that can make an impact in the middle to later rounds of the draft.

The offensive line is the strength of the offense. If the unit can remain healthy and continue to play at a high level, we should see Wentz revert to his old ways. The extra time he will have to dissect the defense will allow him to be able to make the correct reads to get the ball out to his receivers.

We technically have never seen Wentz play with a star-studded receiving corp. Zach Ertz achieved 1,000 yards receiving in 2018, making him the only pass-catcher to hit that mark during Wentz’s tenure with the Eagles. With that being said, there shouldn’t be much of a transition process for him to get acclimated to Indianapolis’ group of receivers.

Risks

Some factors could allow Wentz to fall on his face with his new team. First off, there’s a chance that he’s on a downward spiral and there’s no chance of him reverting to old ways. Another thing to note, it might take him some time to get used to the new offensive system along with the new coaching staff and players around him.

His style of play might keep him from being a QB1 in 2021. Wentz is not a statue in the pocket, but he’s doesn’t have the mobility compared to some of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Mobility is very important, and it might prevent him from scoring in the top-three at this position, but it’s not enough to prevent him from developing into a QB1. The most rushing yards he had in a season was in 2017 when he rushed for 299 yards.

If Ryan Tannehill (QB9), Kirk Cousins (QB11), and Matt Ryan (QB12) can reach QB1 status, then Wentz’s limited rushing production won’t prevent him from hitting that mark.

Conclusion

There’s a good chance that Wentz will finish his first season with the Colts as a back-end QB1. All he has to do is gel with the offense and play to his potential. He already has two QB1 seasons under his belt, making him a likely candidate to produce in 2021. If it weren’t for injuries, he would have at least another QB1 season attached to his name.

He’s currently being drafted as a value as the 19^th quarterback off the board in FFPC drafts, making him one of the biggest discounts in fantasy. There’s no risk when it comes to draft Wentz at that price tag. Many fantasy gamers will get the opportunity to pluck him off waivers if he continues to fall at that price point. It’s easy to see how he could easily outperform his ADP.

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