RADIO
The Open Championship was the last edition of Breaking $100, as I was breaking my butt across the many, many hills of Iowa on my bicycle for 7 days, finishing the 50th annual Ragbrai bicycle ride across 500 miles of this glorious state. For those of you who are into endurance bike riding, it is an absolute must. Speaking of endurance, Rory McIlroy's endurance continues to be tested on a major scale, pun intended. His last major victory was in 2014, with the next major taking place in 2024, at the place that has eluded him ever since that fateful snap hook into the trees on the 10th hole of Augusta Golf Club on Sunday in 2011.
Brian Harman and Lee Hodges, on the other hand, decided to make back-to-back weekends of golf very unexciting, as the two long shots raced away from the field both going wire-to-wire and winning by a handful of shots. In a year full of favorites taking down the tournaments, two long shots running away with consecutive tournaments has been a refreshing change of pace despite sucking all excitement out of the tournament. This week we get the final regular season event of the calendar and there are some thrilling story lines heading into the week.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($10)
Since Sepp won the JDC for us, we had Scottie Scheffler finish 3rd at the Scottish and Rory finish T6 at the Open, coming close, but not leaving with any cigar or hardware. This week we are going to be a little more conservative with the option to add somebody live at 25-1 ($5) or so. Si Woo Kim has been somebody I have been contemplating completing adding to the card, but the putter has lost -8.5 strokes in the last 4 rounds, and at 22-1 that is just too steep a price for somebody who doesn't know where the ball is going on the greens.
JT Poston ($3.38 @ +3500 on BetRivers)
JT Poston is on a proverbial heater, friends! The winner of the 2019 Wyndham Championship has rattled off two T6s and a T2 in his last four starts. Since the John Deere the "Postman" has found an expeditionary route for his iron play, gaining an average of +0.85 on approach in his last 14 rounds. If his iron play has been expeditionary, his putting has been operating at a Mach level, ripping off a run of 16 rounds where he has lost strokes putting only once, averaging +1.27 with the flat stick recently which will be a very important part of this week as scores will flirt with -20.
The only baseline ranking for Poston that sits inside the top-30 is his easy scoring strokes gained average, which is 4th. But, in his last 24 rounds he ranks 25th in APP, 23rd ARG and second in Putting, which are stark contrasts to his baseline rankings of 48th, 82nd and 35th respectively. He has always been a bit of a loser OTT, but every now and then he does tend to hang with the cool kids, albeit the shorter ones, jumping from 73rd baseline to 30th in SG OTT on courses shorter than 7,200 yards, which is exactly what Sedgefield is at roughly 7,000. You already know the address JT, deliver that DUB at the Wyndham once more for us, please!
Adam Scott ($2.64 @ +4500 on BetRivers)
We have two tweets below for Adam Scott, as the first is a representation of golfers who find themselves in contention on Sunday's (aka a total of 9 strokes gained through Saturday). 78% of winners on tour gain this magic number on route to a win, and Adam does this 10% of the time. 72% of winners gain 2+ strokes on Sunday when in contention and Adam does just that in 40% of his Sunday rounds when in contention, which is enough to have me believing that if he finds himself in the mix this weekend, he has a shot to redeem himself at a course where he missed a shorty to win in 2021.
Outside of his ability to find himself at the top of the leaderboard over his lengthy career, Adam needs to finish inside the top-8 to have a chance at making the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the 17th consecutive time, which is easily the longest run on the PGA Tour. In fact, since its introduction to the PGA calendar in 2007, he has made it into the playoffs each year, something only 6 golfers had achieved heading into 2021 Wyndham Championship, with Scott inevitably emerging as the only one of the six to keep that streak alive with a T2.
Enough of Scott's playoff history. In his last eight starts, he has four top-20s, with three of those being top-10s. His recent form is fourth in the field as a result of some well-rounded play over that span, with none of his four major SG areas sneaking into the top-10, but also no worse than 42nd (ARG), getting it done in all areas of his game. The course history with Scott is a little salt and pepper, as he has that T2 but lost -5 strokes on Saturday in 2022 to fall all the way T76 that week.
Scott ranks 10th in my model for safety, which includes stats for the 2023 season, but if I crank up the recency bias and include upside in the metrics, he jumps to 3rd! At 45-1 that is just too good a profile to pass up at that number. Scott is top 5 in birdie % and has been an exceptional wedge player for most of his career, which he will have to lean on once again this week if he hopes to head down to Memphis for the SEVENTEENTH time in a row! Continue to make history, you handsome blob of pastel!
Aaron Rai ($2.38 @ +5000 on BetMGM)
We have not spoken about accuracy off the tee yet, as we have addressed Adam Scott and JT Poston, both of whom sit 135th and 57th in that department, with hopes that the other areas of their game can shine through that muggy cloud of inaccuracy. Aaron Rai, however, is 5th ON TOUR and third in this field in driving accuracy, which, in theory, should set him up really well for approach shots that need to be precise, accurate, and predominantly from the fairway if you are looking to get to -20 this week. Box #1, checked!
Box #2 is approach play, where he ranks 7th over the last 24 rounds and 13th on a weighted basis in 2023, both timeframes checking that box, and combined with his driver, he is ranked as the fourth-best ball striker in the field. Rai has historically been a grinder, lacking the ability to make enough putts for birdie to get in the mix in these birdie fests, but that narrative seems to be a thing of the past now...
Box #3 is the ability to make putts / birdies, which Rai ranks 115th and 34th this calendar year. However, over the last dozen rounds his putter has averaged half a stroke on the greens, having lost strokes in only two of those rounds. On the birdie front, he ranks 10th in the field over the last two-dozen rounds in birdies or better gained, which is a reflection of that putter converting on a few more birdie putts. Check that box, but in pencil, as we are relying on a little more recent results to get us into the winner's circle. With elite accuracy off the tee, incredible iron play, and a putter that has rejuvenated his birdie rate, A A Ron is done messing up, and is on track to get. it. done!
Adam Schenk ($1.61 @ +7500 on DraftKings)
If you have never watched the movie Bridesmaids, please, do it! It's hilarious. Almost as hilarious as Adam Schenk's ability to shimmy into that unflattering hot pink dress 5 separate occasions recently. He has two 2nd-place finishes this year, along with a 4th and two 7ths. Four of those finishes have taken place in his last seven starts, either missing the cut or finishing no worse than 7th. The guy either shuts down the dance floor at the wedding or blacks out before dinner is served - which, for an outright, is exactly what we are looking for.
Just like Scott, but in much more drastic fashion, Schenk jumps from 46th in the 2023 calendar model to 6th in the upside/recency model. Prior to his second place at the Valspar Schenk had not finished better than T20, which is definitely skewing his season long numbers. Recently, he is the 6th best iron player in the field and has gained the 10th most total strokes. His putter is capable of going nuclear at any given moment, having gained 2+ strokes putting in 6 of his last 38 rounds of golf, while averaging +0.74 strokes putting in his last 22 rounds.
The driver is going to be a concern from a historical accuracy standpoint, but he hit 73% of his fairways at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he finished 2nd, which is a course that typically takes driver out your hand for the long hitters, similar to Sedgefield. His game is trending really hard right now, and he has been a bridesmaid one too many times this summer. No better place to throw on a white wedding dress and book that honeymoon suite at a Wyndham Hotel after winning the Wyndham Championship!
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($80)
This Week's Placements
We are going to be spending a full $80 on the below card.
- Sungjae Im $8 T20 +130
- Denny McCarthy $8 T20 +160
- Aaron Rai $8 T20 +200
- Adam Scott $8 T20 +210
- Adam Hadwin $8 T20 +250
- Brandon Wu $8 T20 +360
- Stephan Jaeger $8 T40 -110
- Eric Cole $8 T40 +150
- Kevin Yu T40 +175 (the model loves him but he breaks it each week)
- Dylan Wu $8 T40 +200
Matchups ($0)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. But, no matchups this week.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Adam Schenk $5 +750 Top 10
With four top-7s in his last seven starts, Adam Schenk makes the Farewell Fiver this week at a hefty +750. No need to bet him T40 or anything like that, as his upside and volatility make a T10 bet seem like the obvious angle of attack to his placement market. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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