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Blake Snell's 2025 fantasy baseball outlook after signing with the Dodgers. Andy discusses the fantasy baseball impact of Blake Snell's new deal for 2025.
After taking most of the 2023 offseason to find his new ball club, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell wasted little time this winter and quickly found a home with the reigning World Series champions.
On November 30, Snell and the Dodgers agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract with a $52 million signing bonus. Similar to Shohei Ohtani’s contract, this contract also includes several deferrals, allowing the Dodgers to continue bolstering their roster.
While this deal increases Los Angeles’ chances of becoming the first repeat World Series winner in over two decades, what does it mean for fantasy baseball? In this piece, I will analyze Snell’s performance last season and see if he can remain an elite starting pitcher in Los Angeles. If you have any questions about any offseason moves and trends, feel free to chat with me on X @A_Smith_FS.
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Blake Snell 2024 Season Review
After winning the 2023 NL Cy Young, Snell received a nice payday late into the offseason, signing a two-year deal worth $62 million with the San Francisco Giants. However, this contract had an opt-out after the first season, which allowed Snell to test free agency again following the 2024 campaign.
Signing with the Giants in the back half of March did not help him get off to the best start last season. Through April, the southpaw held a poor 11.57 ERA and 1.97 WHIP and was quickly moved to the injured list with a left adductor strain.
He did not fare much better in May, logging just seven ⅓ innings and posting an 8.59 ERA and 2.05 WHIP.
Snell then faced another roadblock as he suffered a groin strain in early June and did not return to the big league mound until mid-July.
However, following the Midsummer Classic, the southpaw rekindled his 2023-Cy Young self and was one of the most valuable pitchers down the stretch. In fact, according to the FanGraphs 2024 Player Rater, Snell was the most valuable pitcher during the second half in standard scoring.
Blake Snell in my opinion was the best combination of production & contract length of the top SP
Going to say this as clearly as I can…
Blake Snell does NOT have
- An inning problem
- A walk/control problemDodgers got the top arm & the rich get richerpic.twitter.com/Q4anXjAy7E
— OC (@OCBaseball814) November 27, 2024
During this span, Snell pitched to the tune of an incredible 1.45 ERA and near-perfect 0.85 WHIP across 68 ⅓ frames. He struck out 103 batters with just 27 free passes.
The 32-year-old showed a similar pattern during his 2023 Cy Young campaign, but not as drastic. Across his first 45 frames in 2023, Snell posted a high 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. However, over his remaining 135 innings, the left-hander held a stellar 1.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
While these slow starts could be frustrating, especially in weekly H2H formats, Snell always finds his footing and is usually one of, if not the most valuable starting pitchers in the back half of the summer.
A Look Under The Hood
Despite his rough start to the season, Snell finished the 2024 season with very impressive metrics. The southpaw placed in the 96th and 98th percentiles in xERA and xBA, respectively. In addition, he posted a strong .250 xwOBA.
When it came to generating whiffs, Snell finished with a stellar 37.7% whiff rate and 34.7% K rate, which placed him in the 99th percentile among qualified pitchers in both categories.
In fact, these numbers were an improvement over his 2023 Cy Young production. In 2023, he posted a .300 xwOBA (50 points higher than in 2024) and a 31.5% K rate (three percentage points lower than in 2024). In addition, this past summer, he lowered his walk rate by three percentage points compared to his hefty 13.3% from 2023.
While Snell did log 76 more innings in 2023, it is still promising to see him continue to showcase elite metrics despite the several injuries he sustained at the start of the 2024 season.
Looking at his individual pitches, his four-seamer showed great improvement last season. In 2023, his fastball generated a mediocre .288 xBA and .500 xSLG, while in 2024, it improved greatly and generated an excellent .194 xBA and .341 xSLG.
The Dodgers have officially signed Blake Snell to a five-year contract.
Snell is a strikeout machine. Here’s every Blake Snell strikeout on a fastball in 2024.
For someone who walks a lot of
guys, his fastball command can be elite. He Ks seven in a row looking in this video. pic.twitter.com/rldrcjFR4h— Jacob Brownson (@brownsonjacob2) December 1, 2024
However, due to the injuries, his fastball did not carry as large of a sample size this past summer, but he still relied on it quite often. In 2023, he threw it 48.6% of the time and this past summer he relied on it 46.4% of the time.
While in 2023, he relied on his breaking balls and off-speed pitches to generate whiffs and outs, his most-used fastball did most of the work in 2024.
With his already elite curveball, which has generated a near-perfect .164 SLG and .170 SLG each of the past two seasons, and a fastball that continues to improve, Snell could be in an even greater position to succeed in 2025.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Joining a stacked Dodgers roster, Snell could be in line to match his previous career-high in wins (21) he set in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
In addition, according to Baseball Savant, his new home park should not overly affect his production as he was expected to allow just one more home run pitching in Dodger Stadium compared to San Francisco. During the 2023 season, his home run count would have only increased by three if pitching in Los Angeles.
However, his signing does affect the rest of the Dodger rotation. Given the several injuries this rotation sustained in 2024, Snell could end up operating as the “workhorse,” which may not be ideal given his own injury history.
Last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow missed substantial time, while Shohei Ohtani could not even take the mound. In addition, other starters, such as Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, have injury concerns heading into the 2025 season. This could set up Snell to operate as the ace for most of the summer with Ohtani, Glasnow, and potentially Yamamoto on a strict innings limit.
In addition, adding Snell and also potentially being in the running for NPB star Roki Sasaki, many of the younger arms in the Los Angeles system, such as Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, and Emmet Sheehan (when he returns in the second half of 2025) may face an uphill battle to see a rotation spot for an extended period this upcoming season.
This is especially true for Miller, who looked like a budding star in 2023 after holding a solid 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his rookie campaign but took a significant step back in 2024, posting a rough 8.52 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.
Given Snell’s elite strikeout upside and continually improving metrics, fantasy managers should confidently draft him this upcoming season. While the injury bug will usually bite Snell, he typically rebounds well and finishes the season at his highest form.
Blake Snell has 15 strikeouts tonight, a new career high! pic.twitter.com/vBVxUiaf7p
— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2024
Being drafted with a current ADP of 53.90 on NFBC and as the No. 12 SP off the board, fantasy managers should view him as a high-upside SP2 who could very well finish as an SP1 if he can get off to a strong start and avoid lengthy IL stints. If fantasy managers plan on drafting Snell, they should consider pairing him with a proven innings eater earlier in the draft in case Snell gets off to another slow start.
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