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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for April 20th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Tuesday brings a busy MLB schedule and Monkey Knife Fight is there with contests to play and win for every game on the board.
There are some fascinating pitching matchups, with Carlos Rodon and Zach Plesac squaring off in a White Sox-Indians game. Zac Gallen and Luis Castillo are on the mound with the Diamondbacks at the Reds and Corbin Burnes battles Chris Paddack when the Brewers visit the Padres.
While those look like interesting and competitive pitching matchups. It is a also a day full of pitchers with question marks. New Yankees starter Jameson Taillon has been mediocre in his first couple of starts in pinstripes. Washington’s Patrick Corbin wishes he was close to mediocre early in this season. Tampa Bay’s Rich Hill and Kansas City’s Brad Keller are a couple of pitchers who have had success in the past but have had some trouble bringing it early in 2021.
Then there is Los Angeles Angels starter Shohei Ohtani, who had to skip a couple of turns in the rotation due to a blister but he was effective enough in his first start of the season to make Tuesday’s start against the Texas Rangers interesting.
Here are some options to keep in mind when playing Tuesday’s MLB action on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Zack Wheeler LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
After striking out 10 Atlanta Braves in his first start of the season, Wheeler has four and six strikeouts, respectively, in his past two starts. He is matched up against the San Francisco Giants, a team that does tend to strike out a little more than average (27.6% on the road) so there is some opportunity there but to reach seven strikeouts. He has not been especially efficient since his first start of the season so the more conservative approach seems to make sense.
Hyun Jin Ryu MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Blue Jays ace is not an overpowering strikeout pitcher but is consistently around a strikeout per inning, so the question is whether he can go six innings against a Red Sox offense that is better than average at Fenway Park and strikes out less than average (22.0%) in home games. It might be a close call but a slight edge to Ryu.
Patrick Corbin LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
There is probably not a more disappointing pitcher early in the 2021 season, unless there was someone else that you thought might have a 21.32 ERA through his first couple of starts. Corbin’s velocity was down a bit last season and hasn’t bounced back to where it was in his first season with the Nationals, but he has walked seven in 6 1/3 innings while allowing four home runs. His batting average on balls in play is .381, which is very high, so positive regression ought to be coming but it’s a little difficult to forecast good things for Corbin after he has been rocked in his first two starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
Vladdy has been crushing the ball early in the season, hitting four home runs with a 1.174 OPS and is averaging 3.4 MKF fantasy points per road game. He goes up against a rolling Red Sox squad but they have left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound, which is a bit of an advantage for a right-handed hitter.
Adam Wainwright LESS THAN 16.5 PITCHING OUTS
Wainwright has not gone more than five innings in any of his first three starts. He recorded at least 17 outs in nine of his 10 starts last season but it’s looking like 2021 is a little different.
Nolan Arenado MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
The Cardinals’ new third baseman is off to a fine start, averaging more than 2.0 total bases per game overall and 1.9 per game on the road this season. With a favorable matchup against left-handed Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, the edge goes to Arenado.
Eduardo Rodriguez MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
Boston’s southpaw starter has 12 strikeouts in 10 innings through his first two starts this season and even though the Toronto Blue Jays strike out a little less than MLB average (23.9% on the road) there is still a pretty reasonable path for Rodriguez to find his way to at least five strikeouts, a threshold he has hit in nine straight starts going back to 2019.
Juan Soto MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
The young Nationals star has struggled at home this season, hitting .192, and yet he still has a .371 on-base percentage at home so when that gets coupled with a .462 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, Soto should be able to get on base multiple times against Wainwright and the Cardinals.
RAPID FIRE
Bryce Harper +0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Bo Bichette
Two hitters off to strong starts in 2021. Harper, the Phillies right fielder, has a 1.030 OPS and is averaging 3.0 MKF fantasy points per game. He faces the San Francisco Giants, who have Logan Webb on the mound. Bichette is not as efficient, with an .820 OPS but he is averaging 3.6 MKF fantasy points per game. Bichette is matched up against the Boston Red Sox and left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez, which makes this a close call overall. Close enough to like Harper getting an extra half MKF fantasy point.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Brad Keller LESS THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Royals starter has been regressing hard after a great but short 2020 season. He has eight strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings through three starts so he may have a hard time even getting to five strikeouts against a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that hovers around league average in strikeout rate (26.3% on the road).
Rich Hill LESS THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
The 41-year-old lefty has struggled early in the season and while he does have 13 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings part of the equation is whether the Rays will let Hill get deep enough into the game to get five strikeouts, particularly against a Royals team that has been much less likely to strike out at home (21.1%). Hill has not faced more than 22 batters in any of his first three starts for Tampa Bay and even if Hill goes 22 batters and the Royals strike out at an average rate against him, that still works out to about 4.6 strikeouts so this seems like he will be teetering on the edge.
Whit Merrifield MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Kansas City’s all-purpose threat is slugging .500 at home this season and considering he is at the top of the order, that should lead him to multiple total bases in a game and that is before considering that he has been even better against left-handed pitching, slugging .667. These are all very small samples but the early trend is enough to like Merrifield for a productive game.
Salvador Perez LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Maybe the Royals catcher is due or overdue against a left-handed pitcher (like Rich Hill) but he is 0-for-18 against left-handed pitchers so far this season so who wants to take a chance that this is the day he snaps out of that slump?
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