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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for April 2nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Friday’s Major League Baseball schedule is not nearly as busy as Opening Day but Monkey Knife Fight has contests to keep the second day of the season exciting.
The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox had their opener postponed due to rain, so they are going Friday afternoon while the rest of the games are under the lights, with a tilt towards late games as there are games in Colorado, Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego and Seattle.
Here are some Star Shootout angles to keep in mind when playing MLB action Friday on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Mookie Betts MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Last season, Betts accumulated 123 total bases in 55 games, an average of 2.24 per game and today’s game is in Colorado, which does not reduce the likelihood of Betts getting at least a couple of bases. He had a single and a double in the opener and while Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela was effective last season, his previous track record was pretty suspect.
Corey Seager MORE THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
Injuries had sent Seager’s career into a hole during the 2018 season but he started to climb out of it in 2019 before firmly re-establishing himself as a star in 2020, with his best regular season numbers followed by winning the MVP in the National League Championship Series and the World Series. Even so, he had 79 runs plus RBI in 52 games last season, which is just 1.52 per game, so this is really counting on Friday’s game in Colorado being a hitter-friendly location in order for Seager to put up numbers.
Trevor Bauer LESS THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
Bauer had an incredible season in 2020; a 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Regression is coming because those numbers were too good to last and even in that outstanding season, he recorded nine or more strikeouts in six of 11 starts. Bauer has one career start in Colorado and he lasted just 3 1/3 innings so counting on at least nine strikeouts is rather optimistic even against a Rockies team that might not be very good.
Pablo Lopez MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Marlins starter had a breakthrough season in 2020 and still managed six or more strikeouts in six of 11 games. He does get the benefit of a home start against a Tampa Bay team that, for as successful as they were in 2020, also had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball (26.9%).
Ryan Yarbrough MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
While Yarbrough does not have a huge strikeout rate (7.1 K/9 last season) he did record at least five strikeouts in six of 11 starts, and for a Rays team that likes to limit pitchers from going a third time through the batting order, Yarbrough pitched more than six innings in four of those six starts.
C.J. Cron LESS THAN 2.5 FANTASY POINTS
Cron is a good candidate for a bounce-back season as he missed most of last season with an injury and now has the benefit of playing home games in Colorado but counting on at least three fantasy points against the Dodgers and Trevor Bauer is a bit optimistic, even if Cron delivered five fantasy points on Opening Day.
RAPID FIRE
Cody Bellinger +0.5 fantasy points vs. Will Smith
The records show that Bellinger had a single and a double on Opening Day but his single was really a home run in which he inadvertently passed teammate Justin Turner on the basepaths. Even though Smith is a very productive hitting catcher, Bellinger is a lively underdog getting an extra half fantasy point in this matchup.
STAR SHOOTOUT - NIGHT GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Blake Snell LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
Does the move to San Diego mean going deeper into games for Snell? He has more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings for three straight seasons and yet he didn’t go six innings in any of his starts in 2020. He only had seven or more strikeouts three times in 11 starts and while his usage should be different this season, it might be asking a lot for at least seven strikeouts right away.
Andrew Heaney MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Health is always the big concern with the Angels starter but over the past four seasons he is averaging 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a White Sox team that had a higher-than-average strikeout rate (25.2%) last season so that is a decent opportunity as long as Heaney can make it through his start without getting hurt.
Jesus Luzardo LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Oakland’s promising young left-hander struck out a batter per inning last season but that resulted in six or more strikeouts five times in a dozen starts. He is also facing a Houston Astros team that, even without trash can assistance, had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (19.7%) last season.
Dallas Keuchel MORE THAN 16.5 TOTAL PITCHING OUTS
The veteran White Sox starter is not overpowering but the modern version of the crafty lefty. He recorded at least 17 outs (5 2/3 IP) in six of 11 starts last season and that included going 5 1/3 in his first two starts of the season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
In 2020, Tatis had 128 total bases in 59 games, good for 2.17 total bases per game. A home game against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks is not reason to expect less production out of the rising Padres star.
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