Early 2021 Sleepers and Draft Targets - Running Back

March 25, 2021

Bruce Matson names his top running back draft targets and sleepers for the 2021 fantasy football season.

We are months away from drafting our fantasy teams. The NFL Draft isn’t far away and free agency is about to kick off. Many fantasy gamers are not thinking about who they are going to drafting in the middle rounds of their draft next August. However, knowing the trends in March could provide some insight into what we could be seeing when drafts start getting hot and heavy in the summer.

Running back is the hardest position to nail in fantasy. There are only a handful of backs who provide consistent fantasy production. Due to injuries and volatile game scripts, it’s harder to find a top-tier asset at running back than any other position in fantasy.

Knowing which running backs are currently being undervalued can benefit fantasy managers during the early stages of the off-season. Since we are working with limited information, some players might slip a round or two further in ADP. This might provide enough initiative for some fantasy players to jump in a few leagues earlier than usual so they can grab can take advantage of some of the current discounts.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Mixon appeared in just six games last season. During that time he was running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Bengals are projected to bolster their offensive line through the draft and free agency this off-season. Since he was out of sight and out of mind last year, fantasy gamers are currently letting him slip to the third round of drafts, making him a cheap three-down back in fantasy. Fantasy gamers should expect his price to rise between now and the start of the NFL season.

Zac Taylor on Joe Mixon: Joe's good. He's working out. I know he feels really good right now.

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) March 10, 2021

Reports are stating that Mixon is healthy and should be good to go for the 2021 season. Fantasy managers should capitalize on his current injury discount. Once we see him in pads during training camp, his draft capital will rise to the second round.

Per PFF, in 2019, Mixon averaged 3.15 yards after contact per attempt. He also ranked seventh in the league with 29 carries of ten yards or more. Mixon finished the season as the RB13 with six RB1 performances. If he can stay healthy and Joe Burrow can move the needle for the offense, we should see him jump back in the RB1 ranks by the end of the season.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

Gibson exceeded expectations during his rookie season with six RB1 weeks. His 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game allowed him to finish the season as the RB14. If it wasn’t for him missing two games with a toe injury, Gibson would have easily finished the season as an RB1.

What makes him appealing is what he can bring in the receiving game. He had eight games with three or more receptions and averaged 8.5 yards after the catch per reception on the season. If it wasn’t for J.D. McKissic stealing a large market share of the passing workload out of the backfield, Gibson would have finished the season as one of the more lucrative receiving backs in the league.

Outside of McKissic stealing work, there isn’t much competition on the depth chart. The Football Team isn’t expected to spend heavy draft capital on another running back. Gibson is projected to be a three-down workhorse and is considered a deal at his current third-round price point.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Akers rushed for 390 yards and two touchdowns during his final four games of the fantasy season, earning the role of the team’s lead back for the 2021 season. He is falling to the third round in mock drafts, making him a tremendous value.

Courtesy of Playerprofiler.com

His athletic profile has RB1 written all over it. His 89^th percentile speed score makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Akers is also a good receiver out of the backfield. We didn’t get to see much of him in the passing game since he only caught 11 balls last year. His 10.4 percent target share during his days at Florida State combined with his athleticism, indicates he could be a weapon as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Even with him seeing limited usage in the passing game, he still managed to accumulate 8.36 yards after the catch per reception.

When we compare him to some of the running backs who are currently being selected in the second round of the draft, like Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift, Akers has the potential to out-produce them. He is projected to receive a heavy workload and could develop into one of the best running backs in the league.

The Rams’ offense should be clicking next season. They recently acquired Matthew Stafford via trade. Stafford will be a major upgrade over Jared Goff. The offense should be able to move the ball more efficiently and see more scoring opportunities. Akers will get more touches in the red zone. In 2020 he averaged 7.3 defenders in the box per attempt. With Stafford slinging the rock, there’s a chance he could see lighter boxes as defenses compensate to defend against a more explosive passing attack.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Pollard is currently boxed-in by Ezekiel Elliott who eats a large market share of the touches out of the backfield. He’s being drafted around the ninth round which could is coined as the handcuff-zone in drafts. When Elliott was out of the lineup, Pollard proved he could step in to be a very valuable piece in the offensive game plan. Against the San Francisco 49ers in week 15, he rushed for 69 yards and two touchdowns while catching six passes for 63 yards which elevated him to RB1 status for the week.

His involvement in the passing game makes him a dynamic threat in fantasy. During the last three weeks of the season, Pollard saw a 15 percent share of the air yards while accumulating 108 yards after the catch. It’s not outside of the realm of possibilities that we see a bump in his workload in 2021. He provides an added flair in the passing game with 8.29 yards after the catch per reception, seventh-most among running backs with 25 catches or more.

Another thing we want to consider is Elliott’s long-term viability. He turns 26 in July and has touched the ball 6,625 times during his professional career. The injury bug started to nip on his heels last season when he was dealing with hamstring and calf injuries. Not to mention he looked sluggish compared to previous seasons.

Dak Prescott being back in the fold is going to super-charge the offense. Even with Elliott as the lead back, Pollard will have the chance to deliver volatile fantasy results, making him a spot start on any given week. If Elliott misses multiple games due to injury, then Pollard will be a major candidate to be 2021’s breakout running back.

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