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Joe Gallina identifies five second-year batters who are likely to have breakout fantasy baseball seasons in 2020 and could be draft targets and sleepers.
We fantasy baseball players were treated to a large influx of talented rookie batters last season. Some like Peter Alonso and Eloy Jimenez enjoyed breakout seasons.
Phenom prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. also made his big league debut last season and based on his lofty ADP, he's considered a no brainer to have a huge second season. There are many other second-year batters whose upside and skillset puts them on the brink of producing their own breakout seasons.
Let's take a look at five of those players who are profiled below.
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Oscar Mercado (OF, CLE)
2019 stats: .269 BA, 70 Runs Scored, 15 HRs, 15 SBs in 115 games
Throughout his professional career Oscar Mercado was always recognized for his speed on the base paths. However, he spent last offseason tweaking his batting stance in order to add some pop to his swing, and the extra work paid off. He finished his first full MLB season with a .443 slugging percentage, .086 points higher than his seven-year minor league average. He hit 15 home runs, stole 15 bases, added 25 doubles, and batted .269 in his first 438 big league ABs.
Hitting from the No. 2 slot in the Indians lineup allowed Mercado to score 70 runs last season. He should continue to be a major contributor to the runs scored category in 2020 as he’s likely to once again bat towards the top of the Indians lineup. The Indians are a team that likes to run (138 stolen base attempts, fifth-most in baseball last season) and Mercado should have plenty of stolen base opportunities this season.
As the 25-year-old Mercado continues to develop his “man strength” some 20-home run, 20-stolen base seasons could eventually become the norm for Mercado.
Tommy Edman (2B/3B, STL)
2019 stats: .304 BA, 11 HRs, 15 SBs in 92 games
Tommy Edman played second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield for the Cardinals last season. In addition to being a multi-purpose fantasy asset, Edman could also be the perfect remedy for stolen base-starved fantasy players. He’s got speed and knows how to use it. He swiped 15 bases while getting caught just once last season, and Edman was successful on 85% of his 84 stolen base attempts in his minor league career.
He’s got a knack for getting on base (.350 on-base percentage for the Cards last season) and plays for a team that was tied for the fourth-most stolen base attempts last season. Based on the way Edman’s 2019 season developed provides hope that Edman is ready to break out in 2020. In his first 45 games, he posted a .241/.272/.397 triple-slash and a .669 OPS. Edman’s production increased as the season wore on, and he batted .351/.406/.578 with a .906 OPS in his final 47 games of 2019.
His ability to play several positions makes him a valuable real-life player who should get plenty of ABs this season. That obviously adds to his fantasy value as well.
Nick Solak (UT, TEX)
2019 stats: .293 BA, 5 HRs, 17 RBI, 2 SBs in 33 games
Nick Solak is another second-year player with above-average speed, a tremendous hit tool, and the ability to play multiple positions. Solak was expected to start the season as the Rangers’ left fielder while Willie Calhoun recovered from a fractured jaw. However, with the delay to the start of the season, Calhoun may not miss as much time as originally anticipated.
The Dallas Morning News recently speculated Solak could get a start per week in center field, left field, third base, second base, and DH. Solak is only UT eligible in many leagues, but if he’s called upon to replace second baseman Rougned Odor or third baseman Todd Frazier (both prone to long-term slumps), he could gain multi-position eligibility by season’s end.
Solak’s major league .293/.393/.491 triple-slash is very similar to his career minor league averages (.294/.383/.468) which bodes well for his upcoming second season in the big leagues.
Bo Bichette (SS, TOR)
2019 stats: .311 BA, 11 HRs, 21 RBI, 4 SBs in 46 games
The Blue Jays have a nice mix of talented young ballplayers who could potentially come into their own over the next couple of seasons. You have to love Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s potential, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got a lot of hype ahead of his big league debut. However, when all is said and done, Bo Bichette may eventually develop into the face of the Blue Jays franchise.
He has five-tool potential, and while his 2019 .368 BABIP will regress a bit, his skillset should still allow him to consistently provide fantasy owners with a .285 to .295 batting average, more than 20 home runs, over 80 runs scored, and upwards of 20 stolen bases over the next several seasons. In fact, those may even represent low ball projections.
The Blue Jays don’t like to run (71 stolen bases attempts last season, fourth-fewest in baseball), but Bichette is expected to bat leadoff this season and his above-average speed should help him provide fantasy owners with much-needed help in the stolen base and runs scored categories.
Keston Hiura (2B, MIL)
2019 stats: .303 BA, 19 HRs, 49 RBI, 9 SBs in 84 games
Keston Hiura also possesses five-tool potential, powered by above-average bat speed and his ability to spray the ball to all fields. His 2019 numbers are obviously impressive, however, in order to continue to produce at a high level for the long term, he’ll have to limit his strikeouts.
Even in this climate, it’s hard to maintain success if you’re striking out 31% of the time. Some analysts are concerned that he batted just .240 against left-handed pitching last season. However, this hasn’t been a long-term issue for Hiura, as evidenced by his career .290 minor league batting average against southpaws.
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