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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 TOUR Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Our second Wyndham Clark outright hit in two months has given us a buffer ahead of the Tour's final stop of the season, but there are still opportunities abound at East Lake -- despite a field of just 30 names. This old-school Donald Ross design features some of the toughest rough on the PGA Tour and rapidly firming greens that will put a premium on elite ball-striking.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 8/26/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Collin Morikawa (-115 at Novig) OVER Matt Fitzpatrick
I've been one of Matt Fitzpatrick's biggest supporters through his breakout 2026, but matched up against one of the clearest course fits in the field, I'm comfortable fading him while he's in the midst of the steepest downturn of the calendar year.
Since leading the PGA Tour for much of the season on approach, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes with his irons in two of his last three starts -- including his worst single ball-striking week in three years at Bellerive (-6.25).
With Fitzpatrick's tee-to-green floor in question, and Collin in the midst of patching his greatest historical weakness, the projections become a lot more comfortable with the -115 favorite -- particularly at a venue where Morikawa came runner-up two seasons ago and finished top six in three of six appearances.
Morikawa has gained strokes on the greens in all but one of his last seven starts and currently outpaces Fitzpatrick across their last 30 rounds in each of the three strokes gained categories. I'd make the American upwards of a -135 proposition head to head.
Alex Smalley (-111 at Novig) OVER Min Woo Lee
Another case of surging recent form against a player with serious concerns in his profile: as Alex Smalley appears to be approaching a similar vein of form as the one that carried him to a runner-up at the PGA Championship and three additional top 10s through April and May.
Smalley ended his regular season with a T7 at his home course of Sedgefield, then logged two solid ball-striking performances in Memphis and St. Louis to finish T24 and T16. Notably, his familiarity with Donald Ross designs -- being a member of Sedgefield -- will come into handy around its most comparable layout on the schedule at East Lake, and on Bermudagrass courses as a whole, Smalley ranks 13th in this elite field over his last 50 rounds.
Min Woo, on the other hand, sits 27th in that same metric and comes into the week with just one finish of 45th or better across his last seven starts. His last two starts in particular have seen the Aussie lose a cumulative 12.48 shots with his driving and iron play.
I don't envision East Lake being a great stage for a bounce-back either, as Min Woo sits in the bottom five in Driving Accuracy and dead last on approach over his last 30 rounds. And considering he's taken tangible steps back in both short game metrics over the last 12 months, the safety net simply isn't there to prop up his floor on the weeks where his ball-striking isn't all the way there.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8/26/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Hideki Matsuyama WINNER (+3025 at Novig)
While many -- even at the top of the board -- come into East Lake with legitimate question marks, there is nobody in the golf world who would argue about how Hideki Matsuyama is playing. Even in spite of logging his worst result (T28) last week since the U.S. Open, Matsuyama ranked ninth of 50 players in Ball-Striking and third in Driving Accuracy.
This recent resurgence off of the tee (gained strokes in each of his last seven starts), makes Hideki one of the safest bets on the board from tee through green. For the season, the Japanese No. 1 ranks 10th on approach and 4th around the greens.
As has been the case for much of his career, the putter has held him back from an even greater run of results to start his playoffs, but zoom out over the last seven months, and its clear that this isn't the same old Hideki Matsuyama who languished well below the Tour average on the greens.
In fact, Matsuyama is currently enjoying his best overall putting season season since 2018 -- and prior to two stops in Memphis/St. Louis, had gained strokes with the flat stick in four of his last five starts.
Keep in mind that Hideki's last five wins have all come on Bermudagrass greens, and his most recent victory came two years ago at TPC Southwind -- East Lake's cleanest agronomic comp. I believe this price is far too generous for a player with the form and pedigree of Matsuyama, particularly in a 30-man field.
