RADIO
I'm going to let you in on a little secret... JB stands for "JUST BOLDNESS".
Okay that's a lie... it's actually not a secret because I use that every year in my bold predictions intro. Nevertheless welcome to the latest rendition of RotoBaller's 2020 Bold Predictions. You have now come to the stop where you will be blindsided by more boldness, and yet more accuracy, than anywhere else in the entire industry.
I hope you enjoy my rowdy predictions for 2020. When you're done, please check out the rest of my colleagues' fresh takes for the upcoming season (links at bottom).
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Rafael Devers wins AL MVP, finishes Top-10 in Fantasy (Again)
I get one Boston prediction per year as a Sox fan, and this year I am going straight to the best hitter on the team... sorry J.D. Martinez. I have long been awaiting the Rafael Devers breakout, and was slightly disappointed with what I saw from him in 2018. But then I watched this guy in the playoffs against the Yankees and Astros pitching staffs and I knew that he was still on the verge of something big. Then 2019 rolls around, and it happened. Raffy Big Scoops went ham and ended the season as the sixth-ranked player in fantasy. His 90 XBH led the league over the likes of Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, and Pete Alonso.
Am I worried about a dip in power? Not even a little. His HR/FB% was right on par with his average, plus he hit 54 doubles. 23 years young and 237 lbs, an off-season in the weight room and cages could easily convert 10 of those doubles into full trips around the bases. I am sure many think Mookie Betts being traded will have a big impact on his run production, as if Andrew Benintendi/Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and JDM isn't still an elite 1-4.
Devers will still reach 200 R+RBI, and still hit over .300 because frankly he's one of the best all-around hitters in the league right now - and he hasn't even reached his full potential yet. I understand saying a player being drafted at 21st overall is going to be really good isn't exactly bold, but I just want to stress how much of a gift that second-round ADP is going to turn out to be by season's end.
Justin Upton sets a career-high in RBI and finishes as a Top-25 OF
Justin Upton finished the 2018 season as the 20th ranked Outfielder in fantasy. He hit 30 HR while batting .257. It was his third consecutive season with at least 30 bombs. Then 2019 was derailed by knee and toe injuries and led to an abysmal offensive showing in 63 games. But reports are he had a rehab-free off-season and is fully ready for 2020. The former first overall pick is still just 32 years old, which is not young by any stretch but at the same time is the same age as David Peralta, J.D. Martinez, Michael Brantley, and even Rusney Castillo (sad face..). If indeed truly healthy, how am I not going to expect a full season of 2018 Justin Upton to resurface?
Despite the lack of production and poor statistics, 2019 actually showed me some things to get excited about, such as a 45.9 FB% that was Upton's highest since his 2008 rookie season. How about replicating his career-high 46.6 Pull% from 2018, or the still-impressive 41.1 Hard%? Upton is going to mash this season, and I haven't even gotten to the best part. I haven't even mentioned he will be hitting behind Mike Trout (.438 OBP), Anthony Rendon (.412 OBP), and some days Shohei Ohtani (.343 OBP), with the still-chugging Hall of Famer Albert Pujols in the on-deck circle behind him.
If he stays healthy, which I have no reason to doubt at this moment, Upton will cruise past his 109 RBI personal-best and finish as a top 25 OF in fantasy. He is currently being drafted as the 59th OF and RotoBaller rankings have him pegged at 46th. For a frame of reference, Michael Conforto was the 23rd ranked OF in 2019 after posting a 90/33/92/7/.257 line. As the kids say....BET.
Julio Urias breaks out and finishes as a Top-20 SP
I've waited four years for this. Since the highly-touted prospect debuted as a 19-year-old, I've been waiting for him to be an everyday starter in the Dodgers rotation. I have been patient, and even gladly utilized him as a reliever in years past, but the time has finally come. In 79.2 IP last season, Urias boasted a 2.49 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with a 9.6 K/9, albeit primarily out of the pen as a reliever. I don't need to convince anyone on the stuff, because we've all known for years now that this guy is a stud but was blocked by a crowded and talented Dodgers rotation.
My favorite thing about the stats though is the ability to avoid the long ball. He owns a 0.68 HR/9 across 184 big league innings, and just a 30.9 Hard%. Since 2016 among pitchers with at least 180 IP, his 22.1 Soft% ranks 15th best and is sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The rest of the peripherals don't scream Top-20 SP I'll give you that, but the guy hasn't been able to get in a groove since 2016 when he made 15 starts, again, as a 19-year-old. He suffered a shoulder injury in 2017 and subsequent surgery, and then a domestic violence issue that led to a suspension last season. In that rookie season, he went 5-2 with 84 K in 77 IP along with a 3.39 ERA.
Obviously Urias won't reach 200 IP in 2020. But realistically I could see a similar workload to what Chris Paddack saw in 2019 when he pitched 140.2 innings. Paddack also possessed a similar K/9 as Urias has seen over his time in the majors. Despite the workload, Paddack finished as the 25th ranked SP in fantasy. Despite pitching for the Padres and only winning nine games, Paddack finished as the 25th ranked SP in fantasy. The Padres won 36 fewer games than the Dodgers, who just added Mookie Betts to the lineup. If you add five-six wins to Paddack's 2019 line, you have a top-20 SP.
Starlin Castro sets a career-high in HR and RBI, finishes as a Top-10 2B
So my colleagues colorfully let me know that everyone in the industry was in on this take already, but I don't care because he's still not being respected on draft day. I know he was a Marlin and all, but did you pay attention to Castro after the All-Star Break last year? At the ASB, he was hitting .245 with just six HR, so Castro decided to make a few adjustments at the plate. He then proceeded to hit .302 with 16 bombs in his last 300 PA. His strikeout and ground ball percentage decreased, and his pull and hard-hit percentages increased. I think the adjustments might just stick around.
Just as important as his new approach at the plate, Castro is also not in Miami anymore. He is now apart of the defending world champions, and should be their near-every day second baseman while also getting time at third. Dave Martinez has even discussed and tried out this spring the possibility of Castro hitting third to break up the LHB duo of Adam Eaton and Juan Soto. Can you imagine this new found power stroke with Juan Soto in the on-deck circle and Trea Turner and Adam Eaton getting on base ahead and causing chaos on the base paths?
What is with this ADP people? Castro is currently the 28th second baseman drafted in 2020. Zips projections have him at 22 HR and 90 RBI which is good for their #13 at the position. I see both of those stats as a little light, as he should push 25 and 100 and easily slide into the top 10.
Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress return to fantasy relevance and each record over 10 Saves
Both Knebel and Jeffress had monster past seasons in the Milwaukee bullpen, and then both fell off the radars in 2019. Knebel, of course, was recovering from TJS whereas Jeffress had an awful year but himself was struggling with nagging injuries to his hip and shoulder. Now Jeffress is on the Cubs, and Knebel appears to be on track to rejoin the Brewers sometime in May. I have them both surging back onto fantasy rosters in 2020, but for two very different reasons. Knebel because Josh Hader is too good, and Jeffress because Craig Kimbrel is not good enough.
In 2017 when Corey Knebel was killing it and earned 39 saves, Josh Hader posted his lowest career ERA serving as a "set up man". Of course, he was a rookie with limited scouting reports, and only pitched 47.2 innings, but it just illustrates how that bullpen can look again in 2020 once Craig Counsell realizes that like Andrew Miller's usage back in his hay-day, you want to use your best pitcher at the most important part of the game - which is not always in the 9th inning. Once Knebel is back in his groove after missing all of 2019, maybe by the All-Star break, you are going to want to pick him up because I think we are going to see numerous save opportunities for him after Hader mows down the top of the opposing lineup in the 7th/8th innings.
On the back end of this prediction, let me just lead off by saying I watched almost every Craig Kimbrel appearance for the Red Sox in 2018. I can't really explain it, but after the All-Star break that season, something changed with the closer. Despite the results not necessarily tailing off quite yet, I no longer had the usual feeling of absolute certainty when he stepped onto the mound. Then the playoffs happened, and I had no idea who this man was anymore. He won himself a ring but posted a terrifying 6.58 xFIP along the way. Obviously, I wasn't the only one concerned considering no team was willing to sign him for his asking price until after the compensation period ended, and the Cubs took the plunge in June.
Remember that 6.58 xFIP from the playoffs? Over the 20.2 IP with the Cubs last season, Kimbrel owned a 6.53 ERA. He currently owns a cool 16.20 ERA in 1.2 IP this Spring Training, allowing two taters already. To be blunt, I don't see Craig Kimbrel closing for the Cubs come July, whether its a ghost injury after struggles or a straight out role-demotion. Who will David Ross turn to in the 9th, a youngster with two saves, 9.07 K/9, and a 4.38 xFIP across 33.1 MLB innings in Rowan Wick? Or the veteran with 400 IP and 44 career saves who earned a 1.7 WAR and 2.86 xFIP in 2018 when he was last fully healthy? My money is obviously on Jeffress.
Ramon Laureano finishes as a Top-12 OF, one spot behind Austin Meadows
Laureano was a 16th round pick in 2014 and is one year older than Austin Meadows. I understand the difference between the two in terms of hype and draft position. But just because it makes sense doesn't make it right. You see, Laureano had his own little breakout in 2019 with a 79/24/67/13/.288 roto line. This was in 110 less PA than Meadows. If you pro-rate the counting stats to 591 PA it would look something like 97 R, 29 HR, 82 RBI, and 15 SB. Don't twist this as any kind of hate towards Meadows, the dude is a stud and should absolutely be drafted before Laureano.... but a five-round difference? That's just silly.
I expect big things out of the Athletics this year on their journey to win the AL West. I think a 185 R+RBI campaign is nearly a lock for Laureano out of the two-hole, which is accompanied by a 30/20 ceiling and 20/15 floor. Unlike most projection systems this season, I don't see the BA dropping out in 2020. His .288 BA last year was the exact same he posted in 176 MLB plate appearances the previous season, despite a 40 point decrease in BABIP. He possesses a trio of batted ball abilities that I personally love; line drives, driving the ball up the middle, and hard contact.
In fact, only five hitters with at least 400 PA last year owned at least a 25.0 LD%, 35.0 Cent%, and 40.0 Hard%: Joey Votto, Justin Turner, Shohei Ohtani, Giovanny Urshela, and Ramon Laureano. That is certainly not a bad group to be in when it comes to batting average. Typically the projections I have for Laureano slot him more into the OF-15 territory, but that's before the early injuries to Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and possibly Trey Mancini. So despite being currently drafted as the 29th outfielder this draft season, Laureano will quietly continue his 2019 pace and blow the projections out of the water.
Jarrod Dyson finishes ranked higher than Mallex Smith in all formats
I am not sure if people realize it, but Jarrod Dyson signed a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates last month. He will be their everyday center fielder and has even hit lead-off in several spring training games already. So why exactly is his ADP currently at 445 while Mallex Smith's is at 166? I'm not even going to do any predicting of my own here on this one, I will simply let THE BAT do it for me. Smith is projected for 69 R, 5 HR, 34 RBI, and 36 SB over 503 AB. Dyson is projected for 46/4/23/24 over 323 PA. So let's prorate those numbers up to 503 AB and what do we get: 71 R, 6 HR, 35 RBI, and 37 SB - all of which are higher than Smith.
So even if the super-smart computer projection system is admitting Jarrod Dyson will be better on a by-PA basis, how do I expect Jarrod Dyson to reach 500 PA considering last year's 452 was a career high? Because the Pirates are a dumpster fire, that's why. Last season Dyson was a fourth OF in Arizona and got some extra run with David Peralta's injury. He started for the Mariners in 2017 but had Guillermo Heredia the lefty-smasher taking AB's away and also suffered a sports hernia that ended the season prematurely. If we want to go back even further, in his last season with the Royals in 2016 Paulo Orlando decided to have a career-year and hit .302 which kept Dyson as the fourth wheel (for a tricycle) once again.
But now, in 2020, he is the best the Pirates have to man center field. Pablo Reyes is suspended for 80 games, and JT Riddle and that pesky Guillermo Heredia (again) don't offer the defensive prowess or speed-upside as Dyson. If Dyson stays healthy, I don't care how big an if that is, he will easily set a career-high in PA this season. I am in no way, shape, or form advising anyone to draft Dyson in Mallex Smith territory. Its actually the exact opposite. Do not be the guy that drafts Mallex Smith in the 14th round and then watch an opponent draft the same dude (but better?) 10+ rounds later.
Drew Pomeranz finishes the season as a Top-15 RP
Finishing the season as a reliever, Pomeranz threw 28.2 IP with a 1.88 ERA, 15.70 K/9, and a 51.1 GB%. He held opposing hitters to a .165 BA and boasted a 1.67 xFIP. The K/9 was good for third-highest among RP with 20+ IP, and only Brandon Workman also had a top-30 K/9, GB% above 50%, and an ERA below 2.00. Yes, it is a small sample size, but Pomeranz would not be the first SP to flourish after a move to the pen. You may also be worried about the LOB% sitting above 90%, but I mean if you are striking guys out at Josh Hader levels, you are going to have Josh Hader level LOB ability (which was 93%). Speaking of Hader, he was the only RP to have a higher K/BB% than bullpen-Pomeranz.
Even if you are in the business of only using "closers" in fantasy, Pomeranz makes for a great late-round handcuff to Kirby Yates. But if you are of superior intellect and operate off the JB Bullpen Method (Draft Tip #10), you will join me in scooping up Drew Pomeranz in the late rounds and enjoy the ratio dominance across what should be at least 70 innings. Seth Lugo was a top-12 RP in 2019 and only recorded six saves. Giovanny Gallegos was a top-20 RP and only recorded ONE save. Don't ignore these stud relievers -- there are four roto-pitching categories other than saves that you can use to win your leagues.
Diego Castillo finishes the season as a Top-12 RP
I'm sorry I just really love relief pitchers. Being a holds-league aficionado, I've been intrigued by Diego Castillo for the past two years now. He dominated AAA, and then had a very successful rookie season in which he owned 3.18 ERA and 10.32 K/9 over 56.2 IP. I've always viewed him as the Rays next closer, which I thought would be 2019, but then Emilio Pagan busted out a filthy slider that became unhittable and ruined it.
In 2019, Castillo himself seemed to take a small step backwards from the promising rookie campaign as his ERA and WHIP rose to 3.41 and 1.24 respectively. But if you remove the 7.1 innings when he operated as an "opener", his ERA was actually just 3.08. With those opener innings erased, Castillo was the only reliever in baseball with at least a 50 GB% and double digit K/9, with an ERA under 4.00 and HR/9 under 1.00. He also got even better as the year wore on. After the All-Star break he posted a 2.88 ERA (2.89 FIP) with a massive 11.27 K/9, and best-of-all lowered his walk rate to just 7%. He checks all the boxes. He has the strikeout upside, he prevents line drives, he limits hard-hit fly balls, and he's still only 26 years old.
Despite what I said above about Drew Pomeranz, Castillo is going to need some saves sprinkled over his stat line in order to reach RP12 in 2020. Obviously that means I am not as high on Nick Anderson as the rest of the industry. I cannot deny how amazing he looked in his first big league season, I mean a 15.23 K/9 with a 2.44 xFIP is the stuff of my dreams. But is no one else worried about a 29.5 LD% mixed with a 41.0 Hard%? Who wants to walk that tight rope in the 9th inning for every save opportunity? There is also the lack of high-leverage experience that I think Kevin Cash will take into consideration when planning his bullpen usage. According to FanGraphs Anderson pitched 15 "high-leverage innings" in 2019. In those 15 IP, he surrendered 14 ER. He'll be fantastic as a 6th/7th inning guy bridging the gap to Diego in the ninth.
Danny Santana doubles down, reaches 20/20 again
There are two things I won't stand for this draft season: Jonathan Villar hate, and Danny Santana disrespect. I don't care what he did in previous seasons, we don't just disregard 20/20 campaigns especially in today's fantasy landscape where I am scooping up all the extra speed I can find. But also, there is literally nothing you can tell me that would make me believe 2019 was a fluke for Danny Santana.
First of all, not only did he hit 28 HR and steal 21 bases, he did it in 511 PA. He is the starting Center Fielder for the Rangers in 2020 and proved he can play literally any position but catcher and pitcher (that we know of). He is going to get a full season of PA. He stole 20 bases back in 2014 for the Twins in just 430 PA so we know the speed is no fluke. I can certainly understand the hesitation in the power breakout, but once again you can't convince me it won't happen again.
Zachary Hughes wrote a very detailed article on FanGraphs that looked at just how insane Danny Santana's breakout was last year, in fact it was unprecedented. I don't want to spoil the good work Zachary did in the article so please check it out, but I will share this graph that shows the out-of-this-world transformation.
| Years | EV | LA | wOBA | xwOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-18 | 84.4 | 4.0 | 0.250 | 0.257 | |||
| 2019 | 91.4 | 13.5 | 0.352 | 0.338 |
As Zachary points out, we've never seen a damn-near seven MPH increase in EV since the stat first starting being tracked. We aren't talking about a situation where he maintained an EV and LA somewhere in that 84 MPH and 4-degree career average range - and somehow had a 50 HR/FB% and hit 28 HR. No, Santana was straight up reborn at the plate. His EV ranked in the 91st percentile in the league. The launch angle phenomenon is real, people can study their swing these days and make the adjustments needed to increase launch angle and improve exit velocity. Once that happens, how are you going to use seasons prior to the adjustment to judge future projections? It's practically moot data at that point.
Sure I expect some HR regression, but that's across the board if the juicy-juiced balls aren't coming back in 2020. But as long as a guy is hitting the ball this hard, no way in hell am I projecting less than 20 bombs. He is literally a gift at his ADP (13th round) this year, ESPECIALLY considering you can have a 20/20 guy slot in at first base.
