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Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Ben Rolfe takes a look at QB, RB, WR, and TE who were outliers in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season compared to last year's numbers.
Finding consistency in fantasy sports is hugely important if you want to have a shot at winning your leagues. Players with high variability week-to-week have their purpose, but if you rely too much on them you are going to find yourself frustrated some weeks. If fantasy football had roto style leagues like baseball, or you are in best-ball leagues, then those high-variance players are gold. In a standard league with the playoff format, relying on high-variance guys is not going to be a way to win your leagues year-after-year. You may strike it lucky and get two or three great weeks or you may find many of your guys flop and your season is over. The ideal mix is to have a core of consistent guys you can rely on and then have a couple of boom-or-bust type players on the fringes of your team, who can start depending on matchups and other factors.
The information I am going to use in this articles comes from the brilliant FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Addison developed some brilliant tools last season for assessing players consistency. Personally, as a scientist, I am enthralled by statistics and applying them to fantasy sports is something I have been doing for a long time, meaning I jumped at the chance to write this article and carry on the great work Addison did last year. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here).
Before we begin, I bet some of you are wondering how you calculate consistency after one week. Well, you cannot really, but what you can do is look at how players from Week 1 compare to their consistency ratings from 2017. Who outperformed their 2017 numbers? Who under-performed? Is there any reason for this sudden change in performance? Those are questions I will answer in this article in an attempt to look for players who may suddenly be bad news for fantasy owners, or about to be a fantasy gold mine.
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Quarterbacks
The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2017 COR from largest to smallest. In general Week 1 was a very good week for quarterbacks and it will be interesting to see if that is something that carries over. One name of interest was Drew Brees who had a great Week 1. Despite being consistent in 2017, he never really had huge weeks like the one he had against the Buccaneers. If that continues in 2018 then he could be a fantasy gold mine for owners who took a gamble on a bounce back this year.
Staying near the top the performances of Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan in Week 1 were extremely concerning. All three were extremely consistent in 2017 but struggled in Week 1. Whether they can bounce back this week could make a huge difference in how they are viewed going forward.
Slightly lower on the list are Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. These two had polar opposite performances in Week 1 but inconsistency is likely what we will see from them all season. The same could probably be said of Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor, who both finished with a COR below 50 last season. Both had good fantasy returns in week 1 for various reasons so it will be interesting to see if they can back that up in Week 2.
Running Backs
The name near the top of the list with the most disappointing Week 1 is LeSean McCoy, ignoring Le'Veon Bell, but that was largely expected given his personal situation and the state of the Bills offense. If you gambled on McCoy, he could be a tough player to start until he shows he has a big week in him. Another player near the top of the list who struggled in Week 1 is Duke Johnson, but with three running backs in the mix in Cleveland that is an issue that may not get sorted soon.
A little bit further down the list are some names who had a good Week 1. Joe Mixon got the majority of the carries for Cincinnati and did well, which should be a good sign for his fantasy owners going forward. Isaiah Crowell also had a good week but he relied on two touchdowns and a big 60+ yard gain. He likely still remains in a timeshare with Bilal Powell which could make him an inconsistent option week-to-week. The same goes for Dion Lewis, who performed well and made Derrick Henry look like an extremely slow option. If he can assert himself as the number one then he could be a great play on a weekly basis.
Wide Receivers
DeSean Jackson was so bad in 2017 he does not even make the list. Jackson had a huge two-touchdown game in week 1 but is already likely to miss week 2 with a concussion. Even when healthy Jackson is going to be a tough player to trust week-to-week. The same can be said for Kenny Stills, who will rely on long catches and touchdowns, meaning he is unlikely to provide consistency and Randall Cobb, who could struggle for consistency once again if Aaron Rodgers misses time. Emmanuel Sanders is a name from lower on the list to keep an eye on. Case Keenum did wonders with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in 2017 and there is no reason Sanders cannot have consistency this season.
For the most part, the players higher on the list did well in week 1. Jarvis Landry is a name that stands out for me. He was targeted a lot for the Browns, and some of them were quite deep down the field. Marvin Jones is another name high up on this list who struggled in week 1. However, he saw a couple of deep passes that he just failed to reach which could have led to a big day. He saw eight targets in the game, which means I expect him to be relatively consistent going forward this season.
Tight Ends
The biggest shock from the top of this list was the performance of Travis Kelce. We have no idea whether the big arm of Patrick Mahomes and the route running of Kelce can combine successfully. Kelce flourished with Alex Smith and his relatively low-risk offense, but he could struggle for consistency if Mahomes continues to look downfield as much as he did in week 1. Zack Ertz created his own problems with drops which means he underperformed compared to his usual consistent self. I do not expect that to continue going forward.
In terms of players, I think did well. Jack Doyle should continue to have great consistency as one of Andrew Luck's most reliable set of hands. Among the names such as Will Dissly, Jared Cook, Eric Ebron and Jesse James, we will have to see who is able to have another strong week in week 2. If any of them see a bulk of targets and fantasy points again then they may be worth investing in. My favorite among that group would be Ebron to emerge as Luck's red zone threat but even that may be a hard role to be consistent in.
