March 7, 2016

Tony Peters looks at five MLB first basemen to target in his fantasy baseball draft strategy as deep sleepers. These hitters are potential fantasy bargains.

There are some positions in fantasy baseball where one should avoid getting cute and creative as much as possible. First base is one of them. But drafts are a funny thing: one rarely knows how they will play out. That's before one mentions leagues with flex positions, such as UTIL or MI. Personally, I have made that mistake more than once in recent years, and ended up sifting through the first base clearance bin because of it. Whatever reason you find yourself digging for first basemen sleepers, here are five to keep in mind on draft day.

All stats and rankings discussed going forward were taken from two sets of numbers: first basemen with 700 or more at-bats between 2014 and 2015 (totaling 35 players) and first basemen with at least 350 at-bats in 2015 (totaling 37). Rotoballer first basemen rankings are listed next to each player's name.

Editor's note: Read about more draft values and sleepers with our daily updated list. Make sure to also bookmark our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place. Filter, sort, and export various rankings for various leagues - mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty, keeper values, and more. And it's all 100% free!

Digging Deeper at First Base

Steve Pearce (RotoBaller 1B Rank - 44th)

Pearce has long been a fantasy tease. Starting his career with Pittsburgh, the potential of his power and patience coming to fruition in the Majors has long kept him floating around the league. Things finally came together for Pearce during his second stint with Baltimore. With them, he enjoyed his best season in 2014, hitting .293 with 21 home runs and 49 RBI in 338 at-bats. Then 2015 came and sucked the wind out of his momentum with help from both injuries and ineffectiveness.

Tampa Bay signed Pearce to serve as insurance behind incumbent first baseman James Loney (himself a Rays trade candidate) and newly-acquired DH Logan Morrison. While there is no reason to suggest betting on Pearce collecting over 500 at-bats this season (a feat he has yet to accomplish in the Majors), neither player above him on the depth chart is particularly good. Pearce ranks seventh in slugging percentage over the last two seasons with a mark of .494, a point higher than 2015 home run champ Chris Davis, to go along with his 11th-ranked wRC+ of 129. Considering that those rankings include last year's disappointing season, Pearce could be one of the more productive sleepers of 2016.

Pedro Alvarez (RotoBaller 1B Rank - 25th)

Unlike other sleepers on this list, Alvarez comes with two big caveats: he still is without a team and his placement here is based on him landing in the AL, hopefully to exclusively DH. If he ends up in a different situation than that, disregard this as his defensive failings have all but ruined his chances of seeing significant field time again. Any team foolish enough to do so would have already signed him up. Yet, all it takes is an injury or run of ineffectiveness to convince a team to quickly flip from that mindset to one that would try to fit his bat into their lineup.

Update 3/8: Alvarez has signed with the Orioles, and is expected to serve as their DH.

Despite significant defensive and strikeout issues, Alvarez was able to stay a fixture in the Pirates lineup and be one of their top run producers. Over the past two seasons, Alvarez ranks 13th in home runs among first basemen with 45 and 19th in RBI with 133. Sure, his batting average and strikeout totals also rank high in the wrong directions during that time, but his 25th-best wRC+ (including 19th-best last year) is proof he can still generate runs at an above-average clip. If he isn't signed come draft day, remember him as a player to watch during the season.

Joe Mauer (RotoBaller 1B Rank - 45th)

The days of Joe Mauer the All-Star are long gone as Mauer the first baseman is very distinctly average. In fantasy baseball, Mauer's light bat has dropped him out of our top 40 first baseman, pushing him down to 45th. One look at last year's line of a .265 batting average, 10 home runs and 66 RBI and it's very easy to understand why.

Stack Mauer's stats over the past two seasons next to peers though, and one will find he still offers plenty of fantasy value relative to his current draft positioning. He ranks 14th in runs with 129, 16th in batting average with .270 and 22nd in RBI with 121. With his batting average on grounders dropping nearly 40 points off his career average last year, Mauer could even experience a slight uptick in production. As our 45th-best first baseman, Mauer need only reach his floor to prove a bargain though.

Mark Canha (RotoBaller 1B Rank - 40th)

No one bats an eye anymore when Oakland thinks outside of the box. Those types of baseball decisions are simply par for the course at this point, in this post-Pittball world. Fantasy owners definitely took notice of the A's latest score at the Major League level though, as 2015 Rule 5 pick Mark Canha helped fill in around the diamond and in the lineup. If Canha can improve on what was a strong rookie season, fantasy owners won't see him ranked this low again.

Granted, the sample size is only one season and 441 at-bats large, but Canha has already shown middle-of-the-lineup potential. Among first basemen in 2015, he finished the season ranked in the top 25 in wRC+ (22nd, 106), slugging percentage (23rd, .426) and RBI (20th, 70). Canha's stats also compare to his fellow 2015 rookies well, as his ranking in RBI (fourth), home runs (ninth) and hits (10th) provide additional positive reinforcement. What does not are the presences of veterans Coco Crisp, Billy Butler and Yonder Alonso, all of whom are standing in the way of Canha acquiring significant playing time. Thankfully for Canha and fantasy owners, Oakland isn't a team to keep a young, productive player blocked, so expect them to eventually find a regular spot for him.

Yonder Alonso (RotoBaller 1B Rank - 39th)

Carrying with him a similar skill set to the aforementioned Mauer, Alonso is hoping to keep himself healthy and on the field in 2016 after having spent significant portions of his career on the DL since becoming a MLB regular with the Padres in 2012. After an offseason trade brought him to Oakland to be their starting first baseman, Alonzo might be on his last chance to prove he can be counted on as a starter in both real life and fantasy.

Luckily for all of those involved, the ability to hit has never really been an issue for Alonzo, outside of home run power. He ranks within the top 25 first basemen in batting average (21st, .264) and OBP (25th, .329). His 2015 marks of a .282 batting average (7th) and .361 OBP (7th as well) are helping buoying those rankings, which bodes well for his upcoming season as his 2014 numbers were a lot less rosy. Oakland is hoping that they have bought low on what could be a classic Oakland trade chip in Alonzo, but unlike his former team, the Athletics have what is very likely a superior player in sophomore Mark Canha behind him, so the leash isn't long. That volatility degrades his sleeper status a bit, but all signs point to a solid season from Alonzo in 2016.

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