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Nick Mariano's 7 fantasy football breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2026. His top breakout candidates include Blake Corum, Sam LaPorta, and more.
Few players can earn the title of "league-winner" in fantasy football, but that select group will be the ones to crown royalty. Sometimes it boils down to investing in a scary health situation, pulling up a key rookie, or reading into a new offensive environment (coaching, talent, scheduling, etc.) that others haven't adjusted enough for. What will your path to glory entail?
Of course, a league-winner can also go earlier to help build your foundation up for the riskier swings later on. I'd love to say snag Jahmyr Gibbs onto your roster at all costs, but sadly, auction formats are still lagging behind the snakes. I'm not salty about getting a seventh straight crummy pick in my hometown snake league while others enjoy constant top-5 picks; why do you ask?
Anyway, perhaps later on I'll lay out my key targets in the first few rounds, but this will orbit seven league-winners out of the mid/late rounds to have some fun beyond the top of the board. Scroll down to figure out why Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, D'Andre Swift, Blake Corum, Mike Evans, Jalen Nailor, and Sam LaPorta are my seven league-winners for the 2026 fantasy football season.
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Trevor Lawrence, QB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence finished as the overall QB4 in most formats last year and was one of six QBs to clear 20 points per game. Whittle that window down to starting in Week 5, and Lawrence was *the* QB1, averaging a full point per game more than anyone else (Lawrence: 22.9, Matthew Stafford 21.9, Josh Allen 21.2).
Yet, Lawrence is currently the consensus QB11 off of draft boards, with the No. 12 slot on ESPN providing the greatest discount. Did I miss a seismic shift in what the team offers through the air? Travis Etienne does not mean that much, or else the Bhayshul Tuten hype wouldn’t be so loud.
Parker Washington is ascending (I’d have written him up if so many hadn’t already!), Jakobi Meyers brings a steady possession skill set, Brian Thomas Jr. is one year removed from an 87-1282-10 rookie campaign and still taken near the top 30 WRs, and then Travis Hunter can mix in. Brenton Strange isn’t some game-breaking TE, but he doesn’t have to be!
More about that Week 5 swing was that, being his first true rushing breakout of the season, he gave us a pair of touchdowns and 54 yards on 10 carries. He then faced the Seahawks and Rams (both losses, seven sacks in each tilt) before the Week 8 bye, so things stayed muted.
Then Jacksonville goes 9-1 down the stretch, losing only to Houston’s elite defense. The Meyers trade pans out, BTJ and Strange return from injuries, and Liam Coen’s creativity plays. Amidst the greater passing volume, Pro Football Reference shows no drop in TLaw’s on-target rate, with a three-percentage-point dip in the bad throw rate.
The first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft turns 27 in October and remains squarely in his prime. If you’re in a league where folks hoard QBs, then I’m happy to snag Lawrence near the market price. If you’re lucky enough where a 10- or 12-teamer means managers truly stick to one, then you can be one of the last to pluck a signal-caller and sit back with a smile.
Baker Mayfield, QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One never loves cherry-picking stats or simply brushing over problems, coaching hiccups, or injuries, but the 2025 Buccaneers got absolutely hammered. Offensive players who missed significant time included Evans, Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan, and Tristan Wirfs.
Mayfield was hurt even more than we’d known as last year played out. The headlines were as follows: Week 2 brought a sprained MCL and PCL, as well as a bone bruise, before a biceps tendon injury the following week. He was forced from the second half of Week 12 after an AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. Surround that with the official injury report laundry list, and…woof.
Baker Mayfield's injury list from 2025 is significant. Eight different injuries listed, putting him on injury reports for 10 of 18 weeks. And yet he didn't miss a game, only two DNP practices, nine limited. Pushed through a lot last season, just in what was listed.
Week 3:…
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) July 13, 2026
He played 17 games because that’s the gritty guy he is, completing just 63.2% of his 543 throws after excelling to 71.4% on 570 attempts in ‘25. Before everything came together to wear him down, Mayfield led the Bucs to a 5-1 start and beat the Seahawks on 29-of-33 passing for 379 yards and two scores. But the ship was taking on water, and it did sink to an 8-9 finish.
Then the team didn’t give him the contract extension he was looking for, so add another chip to his now-healthy shoulder. Only one year removed from a top-5 fantasy finish, Mayfield is underpriced and is always there for me in the end.
D'Andre Swift, RB - Chicago Bears
Oh no, what’s happened to me? Swift enjoyed career-best marks with 1,087 rushing yards and nine scores in Year 1 of the Ben Johnson Chi-Town experience, adding another 299 yards and a 10th TD on 34 catches.
He may not be a workhorse with Kyle Monangai in town, but I don’t need all of that at this ADP. And Swift still held a 58.3% rate of inside-the-five carries to Monangai’s 38.5% clip. He also edged the rookie on missed tackles forced per attempt, success rate, and explosive run rate.
We have to shout out his teammates Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland for drawing the primary buzz this offseason, with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze no slouches either. The Bears are a top-10 offense that could find another gear with Johnson now knowing who he’s working with.
Following along with training camp reports from ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, the August 9 session saw her say, “D'Andre Swift has looked terrific through the first two weeks and was seemingly everywhere Sunday: in the run game, passing game and taking a direct snap during 11-on-11 reps.”
Direct snap is an automatic perk-up situation for me. Then the following report for August 11 brought this: “In the first move-the-ball period, Swift got loose and found his way down the right sideline for a 62-yard TD.” I just can't get away from Swift, especially when I've targeted WR early.
Blake Corum, RB - Los Angeles Rams
Instead of more Keaton Mitchell propaganda or talking up my J.K. Dobbins shares, I’ll go with LA’s No. 2 (aka the No. 1B) RB. This doesn’t mean I’m out on Kyren Williams, though I can’t say I love the price gap. After Corum shined in Year 2, Sean McVay has said the rusher will be a “big factor” in 2026, with offseason reports of a 50/50 timeshare going around.
I don’t need to remind everyone that McVay’s trust in Williams is baked in, because obviously the market is not buying the 50/50 speak at face value. However, we did get a whopping 5.14 yards per carry on 145 totes last year (746 yards, six TDs) at 8.5 attempts per game. That mark rose to 10.5 rushes per game from Week 7 on.
Though he never topped a 46% snap share, rising above 40% just once, the raw volume and high-scoring ways made that smaller piece of a delicious pie more valuable than others seeing more reps. Their 30.5 points per game was nearly two points higher than the next team, and their 394.6 yards per game also paced the league. Now Myles Garrett makes the defense more potent for positive gamescripts? Okay!
It doesn’t hurt that during fantasy managers’ stretch run in Weeks 13-16, Corum put up an insane 328 yards and five scores on just 44 carries (7.5 YPC). He’s doing all of this next to Kyren. The real “upside wins championships” ceiling notion that you buy into is: what if Williams goes down? You can squirrel away Jarquez Hunter, but Corum is suddenly a top-5 RB.
Williams and Corum were No. 1 and 2 on Pro Football Reference’s success rate leaderboard (this run game works!). Corum has yet to fumble in his career, which reflects strong hands shown in college, while Williams has fumbled seven times in the last two seasons. His explosive rush rate was 50% higher than Williams’ production, providing lightning after Williams wears an opponent down.
If last year’s 65/35 split leans more 55/45, then we’re cooking. If Williams is unavailable, we’re flying. The enthusiasm may not be as high in full PPR formats, where Williams is still a clear favorite, but Corum gaining ground in that department would simply be a sweetener at this point. Ripping off massive gains with a bloated lead is perfectly fine by me.
Blake Corum rumbles 48 yards for the TD!
LARvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/aroS7jo0iI
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
Mike Evans, WR - San Francisco 49ers
Evans has to be one of the best receivers that Kyle Shanahan has been able to scheme for in recent years, and I need to be in on that. There’s nothing I can say to convince those who are hard “out” on him due to the injury risk, because I am not Miss Cleo, but I’ll posit that the risk is comfortably baked in at cost.
Evans and Davante Adams are going to be the “dusty” age-33 WRs who shine as red-zone threats in robust offensive environments. As we discussed with Mayfield, Evans’ 2025 production was dragged down by not only his IR stint, but the overall second-half slog.
Only three TDs and 368 yards with a career-worst 48.4% catch rate is not a new normal. His turning 14 games into 74-1004-11 the year before is a more accurate representation of his play over the 2020-24 era, especially if you want to fold in some missed games.
Why be so confident about the catch rate rebounding? Well, not only do I have more confidence in Shanahan’s offense finding creative ways to utilize Evans and his elite separation, but Brock Purdy is a fantastic slinger to pair with Evans. Per PFR’s on-target leaderboard, Purdy was easily No. 1 at 82.2%, with Allen second at 79.9%.
We’ve already got Ricky Pearsall out for the year and George Kittle working back from a torn Achilles, which further narrows the target-share outcomes toward the top of Evans’ range. A little quad soreness to open training camp doesn’t frighten me. It doesn’t feel good, but I appreciate their being careful and not pushing anything in August.
If anything, it’s helped maintain the tantalizing price point. De'Zhaun Stribling hype is neat, and his ADP is appropriately soaring, but not so much for Evans. His ESPN ADP is 97 as the 92nd player, going behind both Pittsburgh WRs, which feels oh so wrong. I’ll enjoy the double-digit TD role for a future Hall of Famer before folks internalize what Shanny can do with this skill set.
Jalen Nailor, WR - Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders saw fit to give Nailor a three-year contract worth roughly $35 million, with $23M guaranteed, to bring some juice to an underwhelming receiver room. Klint Kubiak will surely orient the offense around Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, but Nailor has no serious barriers to WR reps.
Tre Tucker was a 2023 third-rounder who has shown flashes, but it’s a low floor. Jack Bech was plucked in the second round last year, but only saw 29 targets as the Raiders used Meyers and Tyler Lockett when available. Dont'e Thornton Jr. never got going, and Malik Benson has some offseason hype, but has much to prove as a Day 3 pick.
So now we have Nailor, who ranked 25th out of 84 receivers (min. 250 routes run) in average separation score per Fantasy Points Data Suite. We’re out to paint Nailor’s talent, especially with how sideways the 2025 Vikings went, which led to only 29 catches for 444 yards and four TDs on 53 targets. He caught an eerily similar 28 balls for 414 yards and six scores in ‘24 on 11 fewer targets.
The broader picture you want to gather here is that even as the No. 3 WR on an up-and-down squad, Nailor made splash plays for 10 TDs and a 15.1 Yards-Per-Reception figure on 57 catches. He could easily be the most explosive WR for Kubiak and shouldn’t see the sideline in a thin group, yet he sits with a cheap WR61 ADP. Yeah, I’ll find out if this translates for a few pennies.
Sam LaPorta, TE - Detroit Lions
The one-sentence elevator pitch is “TD/health regression candidate with a regular role on a premier offense with dome games galore and no defense on the other side of the ball.” We’ve got a fourth-year TE coming off a back injury who set the bar ridiculously high as a rookie, which is the perfect recipe for a sweet value.
In nine games, LaPorta caught 40-of-49 targets for 489 yards and three scores before a herniated disc from the constant hits ended his season. No one else could rise into his cleats, as all other TEs combined for just 43 targets with subpar production.
But back in 2024, when LaPorta logged a 60-726-7 line over 16 games, he was the clear No. 2 in the red zone. His 19 red-zone targets trailed Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 31, but that gap tightened to 10-9 in favor of St. Brown when it came to end-zone targets. In the nine games LaPorta played last year, he and Gibbs had 6-7 RZ looks behind ARSB (16), with a 16.9% first-read rate (second most).
The runway for LaPorta to rejoin ARSB, Gibbs, and Williams as the Four Lions of the Target Apocalypse is clear. Isiah Pacheco is a downgrade from David Montgomery, and Isaac TeSlaa is not having an encouraging camp, with the team looking for a more well-rounded skill set and route tree to blossom.
Then you have new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing coming over from Arizona, so you know he’s got ideas from utilizing Trey McBride. Detroit, and all of us, will benefit from a refresher on what LaPorta brings to the table.
Sam LaPorta Reminding the Lions What They Missedhttps://t.co/Vpdb8PAc79
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 12, 2026
Detroit will travel to Buffalo and Carolina in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively, but the weather should still be awfully comfortable then. Week 9 is the next outdoor game, but early November in Miami is still clear. They’re then in domes until Week 17 in Chicago! The only West Coast travel ask is Week 5 in Arizona, which is followed by the Week 6 bye. What a clean schedule. I need it!
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