RADIO
Thunder Dan analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 14 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Hey, what's the pitching guy doing writing about hitters this week? I'm just pinch-hitting for the usual author, Kevin Larson, and attempting to bring you the same level of analysis that he does every week.
Welcome back to another edition of our Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season. We'll come in and help you with identifying who's a breakout that's going to help your roster win more this season. The advanced stats tell all, and we'll use them to the best of our abilities.
With that said, let's dive into another group of hitters who are breaking out. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, June 29, and rostership percentages are all courtesy of Yahoo!
Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SUMMER, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW
Caleb Durbin, 2B/3B - Boston Red Sox
2026 Stats: .231/.286/.387 - 7 HR, 35 RBI, 31 R, 9 SB
34% Rostered
Durbin's overall numbers are still pretty mediocre, but he's been an entirely different hitter over the last month (an incredibly productive one) after looking absolutely lost at the plate for the first two months of the season.
Durbin smashed his seventh home run of the year last night, and six of those seven bombs have come just this month as he's slashed .325/.360/.974.
Caleb Durbin adds on for the @RedSox! pic.twitter.com/TU232UPoaw
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2026
Durbin was down so bad that he sought outside consultation on his swing, spending some time at the Gradum facility, as the folks at Gradum were happy to let us know with this victory lap.
After Caleb Durbin battled through a tough stretch to start the season, here’s how he’s looking after working with Gradum!
The results over the last 30 days:
🚀 .302 AVG
🚀 35 Hits
🚀 8 Doubles
🚀 5 Home Runs
🚀 20 RBIs
🚀 .932 OPS pic.twitter.com/jMZyL7scnJ— Gradum Gswing™️ (@GradumGswing) June 26, 2026
So what changed in his approach, and can Durbin continue this success for the remainder of the season?
If we look at the month swing metrics for Durbin, we see some major differences in June. First of all, he's increased his bat speed by over two mph against fastballs and 1.5 mph against breaking balls.
Durbin has always been a pull hitter, but he's turning on pitches even more quickly in June with a 50.7% Pull%. Unfortunately, pulling the ball without elevating it doesn't do much for a hitter, as pulled ground balls end up as outs more often than not.
It appears that the key change that Durbin has made to his swing is an increased launch angle that is allowing him to drive the ball in the air more often.
A 7% increase in launch angle on fastballs and breaking balls in June is substantial. And the batted ball data shows that his redesigned swing is getting the intended results. His ground ball rate in June is just 36.6% after being 50% in May and 61% in April. He's raised his fly ball rate to 40.8% this month, and pulled fly balls end up becoming - you guessed it - home runs!
Durbin already has a 60-grade hit tool, and while he's never going to generate a ton of power with his diminutive frame, he's playing in a great home ballpark for right-handed hitters who can pull the ball in the air with the Green Monster out in left field.
Durbin already was contributing in steals, so his increased production in the rest of his offensive stats has made him a very valuable five-category asset in fantasy baseball.
Verdict: I am buying into the breakout here, especially since we now have a full month of data that supports Durbin's increased production. With eligibility at two very weak infield positions, Durbin is a must-roster player in any format right now, even if he's just slotting into your utility slot or serving as depth on your roster.
Sam Antonacci, 2B/3B/OF - Chicago White Sox
2026 Stats: .292/.391/.413 - 4 HR, 22 RBI, 43 R, 11 SB
49% Rostered
Another young hitter with a 60-grade hit tool is Chicago rookie Sam Antonacci. The former fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft spent only one full season in the minor leagues and played only 14 games at Triple-A this year before being called up in April.
Antonacci has been a run-scoring machine while leading off for the surprising White Sox this season. His .391 OBP is ideal for a leadoff hitter, and he's a player who makes a lot of contact with only a 14.8% K%. The only thing that hasn't translated as well from his minor league profile is a 7.6% BB%, but there's reason to believe that number will go up with more MLB experience, as he was at 13% or better at every stage of ascension through the minors.
Antonacci doesn't profile as a guy who will hit for much power, but the elite launch angle sweet spot metrics are a good sign that he could maximize his power with a solid swing path. The big thing here is the plate discipline, though, as he's not chasing pitches out of the zone and forcing pitchers to throw him strikes, while making solid contact quite often.
Sam Antonacci has quietly had a good rookie season.
His current 650 PA pace...
103 Runs
10 Home Runs
55 RBI
28 Steals
.292 AVG
.391 OBP
.411 SLG#WhiteSoxpic.twitter.com/CZWP3Sr1YX— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 29, 2026
We saw several other rookies start slowly this season (Konnor Griffin, for example), only to start hitting the ball harder and get better results once they had those first 100 at-bats under their belts. Antonacci has a .920 OPS and a 162 wRC+ in June.
He's not elevating the ball for home runs that often, but his 23.8% line drive rate is a promising number, especially when those line drives have resulted in 37 hits (an .841 average), including eight doubles and a triple.
Verdict: Antonacci is trending in the right direction in every way, finishing the month of June with better power numbers, while also hitting for average, getting on base, and scoring runs. He's not an elite base-stealer, but his 75 sprint speed and 73% success rate on steal attempts translate to at least a 20-steal season.
If you snagged him off the wire recently, congrats! I think he's well on his way to being a very productive major league player and a solid fantasy option.
A.J. Ewing, 2B/OF - New York Mets
2026 Stats: .275/.363/.416 - 4 HR, 19 RBI, 17 R, 8 SB
19% Rostered
The Mets haven't had too much to smile about this season, but the emergence of youngsters Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing could be viewed as a silver lining of what is looking like an otherwise disastrous season. The 21-year-old Ewing, the Mets' top prospect, has been manning center field for the Mets since his call-up in early May and is starting to show more consistency at the plate.
A.J. Ewing ties the game for the @Mets 🍎 pic.twitter.com/IPhzJVoZsD
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2026
Ewing is hitting .317 with two home runs and 10 RBI over the last two weeks. After striking out at a 32% clip in May, he's lowered that to a much more reasonable 18.2% in June while posting a .872 OPS this month.
It's pretty common to see rookies swinging far too often at breaking balls outside the zone, and that was definitely an issue for Ewing when he first came up. It's good to see him cut down that chase rate on breaking balls. That drastic 15% improvement is likely a major reason why he's been able to cut down on the strikeouts so dramatically.
Ewing has also increased the quality of contact that he's making when he does hit the baseball, too. Specifically, he's hitting fastballs and offspeed pitches much harder this month, which is a great sign that he's settling in against major league pitchers and getting fooled far less often.
We can see those superior batted-ball results reflected in his rolling xwOBA, too, as he's been flirting with .400 now for the past week.
Ewing has 98th-percentile sprint speed and stole 70 bases in the minors in 2025. He had 17 steals in 30 minor league games this season before being called up and has another eight with the big league club. He's been thrown out six times, but 14 attempts is what we love to see, and I would expect him to continue to be aggressive on the basepaths.
Verdict: The power is still developing, but Ewing's hit tool is impressive as he hit .315 in 2025 and .339 this year in the minors. He's making more contact and better-quality contact recently, which, when paired with his elite speed, makes him a very compelling fantasy option. I'm in on Ewing as a young player to buy, and his second base eligibility feels like a cheat code for as long as he can keep it.
Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Stats: .289/.360/.778 - 6 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB
15% Rostered
Valdez is a late inclusion to the article, because as a Pirates fan, I couldn't leave him out after he slugged his sixth home run last night. He's now homered in four straight games and is showing the type of power that has Pirates fans (and fantasy managers alike) flushed with excitement.
Esmerlyn Valdez's power has reached new heights in The Show!
The @Pirates' No. 9 prospect joined an exclusive group after homering in his fourth straight game: https://t.co/lkJtUHC6dU pic.twitter.com/uu8rUCrhlz
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 30, 2026
The power is impressive, especially if you have seen some of these bombs that he's hitting (one went like 470 feet to left-center field the other night). Valdez seemingly came out of nowhere, hitting 26 home runs in the low minors in 2025 and then forcing the Pirates' hand to promote him this year by hitting 13 more long balls at Triple-A in 237 at-bats.
The negatives here are that the power has come with 38% K% and 40% Whiff%. But his 21.5% K% at Triple-A suggests that he should be much better over a larger sample (let's not forget he's only 50 plate appearances into his MLB career). A 10% walk rate is a good start, and he walked quite a bit in the minor leagues, too. That number could go up as he learns better plate discipline and MLB pitchers pitch him more carefully because of his power.
The biggest question for me is, "Will the Pirates continue to play him every day even when they get healthy?" Right now, Spencer Horwitz and Oneil Cruz are both on the IL, creating demand in the outfield and at DH.
Marcell Ozuna is also still on the roster and is pretty redundant to Valdez as a power-hitting righty. I am not sure if the Pirates are willing to waive Ozuna and keep Valdez on their roster long term, but they probably should, considering how poorly Ozuna has hit.
Verdict: Feel free to ride the hot hand and add Valdez now, but there's no guarantee that he'll keep it up, as we are dealing with very small sample sizes in his data (at the MLB and Triple-A levels). He has some short-term job security, but could be demoted to Triple-A again at some point in the future when the Pirates get healthy, and he slows down at the plate.
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
