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Dave's Week 10 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 10 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
We are officially entering the second half of the 2025 NFL season. It always amazes me how fast the season unfolds after months of hard work and preparation, but here we are.
As we move deeper into the year, we typically see the sportsbooks get sharper in terms of setting player prop lines. That is certainly the case for some of the best matchups of the week. However, there are still values out there. We will do our best to highlight some of those and attempt to win some cash.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player props for Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 10 Passing Prop Bets
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 206.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .34 Units to Win .3 Units
Lawrence failed to take advantage of a plus matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders last week. He continued to struggle with consistency and threw another awful red-zone interception.
Pola-Mao picks off Lawrence in the end zone!
JAXvsLV on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/o3gTg3rIjn
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2025
Now, Jacksonville takes on a Houston Texans defense that is arguably the best in the NFL. Houston ranks first in FTN Fantasy's defensive passing DVOA and allows just 177.5 passing yards per game.
This looks like another spot where Lawrence will continue to struggle, and it does not help that Jacksonville will be missing both Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. in this game. I'll be fading Lawrence here and would play this number down to 200.5.
Daniel Jones UNDER 243.5 Passing Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .56 Units to Win .5 Units
Jones had his worst game of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers and threw three interceptions. Given the fact that the Steelers' defense has not exactly been a powerhouse in 2025, that game should serve as a reminder that Jones is still prone to a disastrous outing.
The Colts will try to get Jonathan Taylor back on track in Week 10 and attempt to ride their stellar ground game to a victory over the Atlanta Falcons. It would be a good move and a smart way to help Jones recover from his Week 9 debacle.
The Falcons' season is quickly going sideways, and that's largely because the team's performance has wildly fluctuated from week to week. I think the Colts could pull away from Atlanta early in this game and therefore negate any reason to rely on Jones' arm. So I'll be fading the Colts QB1 this weekend.
Baker Mayfield OVER Passing 242.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .46 Units to Win .4 Units
The Baker Mayfield for MVP chants had a heavy dose of cold water thrown on them after his last two games. Some of that is due to a slew of injuries that have impacted Tampa Bay's wide receiver corps. Despite those injuries, this is a spot where Mayfield could pop for a strong game.
New England may be 7-2, but its pass defense has been a liability. The Patriots rank 28th in defensive passing DVOA and have allowed the seventh-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, per Fantasy Football Today.
With the Bucky Irving set to miss this weekend's game, Tampa Bay will be forced to rely on Rachaad White as its RB1. That could be problematic for the ground game because White has been one of the worst running backs in the league, and New England boasts a strong run defense. That combination could force Mayfield to air it out more often.
I think Mayfield is live to crack 300+ yards here and believe we'll see his best performance in nearly a month.
Week 10 Rushing Prop Bets
Quinshon Judkins OVER 17.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
New York's run defense is likely to take a hit after the team dealt defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys earlier this week. Williams is PFF's second-highest graded defensive tackle in terms of rushing defense, so we cannot overstate how big a loss this is to the Jets' run defense.
The sportsbooks are well aware of this fact, though, and most of Judkins' rushing props reflect that. However, this is still a matchup I want to attack and believe Judkins' longest rush prop is the way to do so.
With the Browns boasting one of the best defenses in the NFL, we could see the Jets' offense struggle regardless of who starts at quarterback. That would mean Cleveland will be playing with a lead and would ensure plenty of opportunities for Judkins to break off a long run.
De’Von Achane OVER 16.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
This week is a great spot to attack some of Achane's rushing props. The Buffalo Bills have been one of the biggest run funnels in the NFL so far in 2025. Buffalo ranks 30th in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Buffalo has also allowed the fifth-most explosive rushing yards in the league.
I don't mind playing the over on Achane's rushing yards line of 62.5 because that is a very low total for a back of his caliber in a plus matchup. However, the Bills are listed as 9.5-point favorites in this game, and there is a possibility they pull away early and Achane fails to hit that low total because Miami is forced to abandon the run.
That scenario feels likely, and it's for that reason I prefer to play Achane through his longest rush prop. We know he has game-breaking speed and can rip off a 30-yard run anytime he touches the football. So, I'll bank on him to do just that in this game.
Breece Hall UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .34 Units to Win .3 Units
I previously mentioned how the Browns have one of the best run defenses in the league, and the stats back that up. Cleveland ranks first in defensive rushing DVOA, first in PFF rushing defense grade, and has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs this year.
The Jets' ground game will likely have trouble gaining traction in this matchup, and that will hinder Hall's ability to post a strong rushing total. The only way I can see Hall surpassing this line is if he rips off a 50 or 60-yard touchdown run, and I don't see that happening here
Week 10 Receiving Prop Bets
Zay Flowers OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-117) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.17 Units to Win 1 Unit
The Ravens take on the Minnesota Vikings' aggressive, blitz-heavy defense in Week 10. Lamar Jackson should be capable of making the necessary adjustments at the line of scrimmage to handle the Vikings' defense, and Flowers could be a major beneficiary.
Baltimore frequently designs and targets Flowers in the screen game and in the short/intermediate areas of the field, as evidenced by his 33.6% first-read rate per Fantasy Points Data Suite. The Vikings also rank 24th in PFF's pass coverage grade, so this is a spot where we could see Flowers pop for a splash play down the field, too.
This game has sneaky shootout potential, and I think we are getting a nice value here on Flowers' yardage total. Throw in the fact that Flowers draws a plus matchup in RotoBaller's Week 10 WR/CB Matchup Chart, and taking the over here becomes an easy play.
Jordan Addison OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Since I believe this game between the Vikings and Ravens could morph into a high-scoring affair, I wanted to also find a way to attack the Vikings' passing offense. Addison is the best value on the board at this number.
Even though the Ravens defense has played better since their Week 7 bye, the Vikings trio of pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson is the best group of skill players the Ravens have faced since their bye. J.J. McCarthy had a strong outing against the Detroit Lions in Week 9, and he could keep that momentum rolling against a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st in defensive passing DVOA and allows the fifth-most passing yards per game, too
I expect McCarthy to do just that, and as a result, believe Addison is live for a huge performance.
Jameson Williams OVER 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .46 Units to Win .4 Units
Williams has been a bit of a disappointment, considering many analysts thought the fourth-year wideout was primed for a career year. However, he remains clearly behind WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown in the pecking order for targets. Williams is coming off a solid 4-66-1 outing against the Minnesota Vikings last week, and he could keep that momentum rolling in Week 10 against the Washington Commanders.
Washington's secondary has been awful, and the team ranks 24th in defensive passing DVOA and 31st in PFF's pass coverage grade. The Commanders have also allowed the second-most yards to wide receivers this season.
Jared Goff and the Detroit passing attack should face little resistance moving the ball in this game. Williams is live for a few splash plays here, and ultimately, I think we see him and Goff connect on at least one deep pass. I also don't mind taking a shot on Williams anytime touchdown prop as well.
Kyle Pitts Sr. OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .6 Units to Win .5 Units
Pitts let us down in this column last week, but we are going to take another crack at him here. The Colts' defense has performed well so far in 2025, but they have been very vulnerable against opposing tight ends. Indianapolis ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends and allows an average of 76.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
Pitts has also seen seven or more targets in three straight games and continues to see a ton of playing time. We are very close to seeing a monster performance from Pitts. With the Falcons likely playing from behind here, this could be the game where we finally see it happen.
Marvin Harrison Jr. UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1 Unit
Harrison is fresh off a 7-96-1 performance on Monday Night Football. Jacoby Brissett taking over as the Cardinals' starting quarterback seems to have been a good move for Harrison's production. However, Harrison draws a brutal matchup this weekend.
The Seattle Seahawks have been fantastic at limiting wide receiver production. Seattle ranks fourth in defensive passing DVOA and second in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Expect the Cardinals' passing attack to hit a roadblock here after excelling against the Dallas Cowboys' porous pass defense last week.
This sets up as an ideal time to fade Harrison following a strong performance in primetime.
Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Kyle Monangai Anytime Touchdown (+155) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6 Units
I had been looking for a way to attack Monangai's props this weekend, as this is another great matchup for him. The New York Giants rank dead last in defensive rushing DVOA and have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
There's a very good chance he finds the endzone again, and this is a perfect match-up for him to do so. With D'Andre Swift's status now up in the air, getting this bet at plus odds feels like a steal, so I am throwing some money on Monangai to score this weekend.
Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (+160) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6 Units
While Walker continues to split carries with fellow running back Zach Charbonnet, an interesting development occurred last week. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Walker received 67% of the team's carries inside the five-yard line last week, while Charbonnet did not receive a touch from inside the five-yard line. This seems to suggest that the team could be preparing to ramp up Walker's workload and might continue experimenting with him as the preferred goal-line back.
Even though the Cardinals are not a plus matchup on paper, I think Walker is live to find the endzone in this game. I'll take a stab at him continuing to get high usage around the goal line and think this line is great value at plus odds.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Check back later for several long-shot plays!
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 10 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Trevor Lawrence UNDER 206.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Daniel Jones UNDER 243.5 Passing Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Baker Mayfield OVER Passing 242.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Quinshon Judkins OVER 17.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
- De’Von Achane OVER 16.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Breece Hall UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Zay Flowers OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-117) Caesars Sportsbook
- Jordan Addison OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Jameson Williams OVER 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kyle Pitts OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Marvin Harrison Jr. UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kyle Monangai Anytime Touchdown (+155) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (+160) FanDuel Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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