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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 10 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 10 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We have a decent sample of eight weeks in the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 10 sorted alphabetically. The Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Titans have a bye week during Week 10. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded) or injured player (orange text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows team offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Denver Broncos.
The visual below shows offenses from the Detroit Lions to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The visual below shows offenses from the Miami Dolphins to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Finally, here is the chart sorted by the Seattle Seahawks' offense through the Washington Commanders' offense.
Best Projected Week 10 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 10 WR/CB Matchups
Week 10 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Zay Flowers vs. Isaiah Rodgers
Lamar Jackson returned in Week 9, providing optimism for the Ravens' offense. Flowers leads the team in air yards share (32.3 percent), first-read target share (33.6 percent), and yards per route run (2.42) among Ravens' pass catchers with a 50 percent route participation or higher.
Flowers faces a Vikings' pass defense, playing zone coverage at the 16th-highest rate while allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback. The Vikings' defense uses two-high looks at the highest percentage and gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback.
Among the Ravens' pass catchers who ran 10 or more routes against man coverage, Flowers led in target rate (30 percent), compared to DeAndre Hopkins (24 percent). Flowers also leads the team in target rate (24 percent) and yards per route run among their top WR/TE.
Meanwhile, Hopkins produced 3.59 yards per route run, slightly ahead of Flowers at 3.00 yards per route run against man coverage. Regardless of the coverage type, Flowers tends to be the top receiving option.
Specifically, against two-high coverage, Flowers boasts a 21 percent target-per-route rate while being the first-read on 28.8 percent of the team's targets, as seen above. Besides Justice Hill's 2.46 yards per route run, Flowers leads the team with 1.66 against two-high looks.
Mark Andrews might be the other notable option versus two-high coverage. That's evident by Andrews garnering a 23 percent target rate and a 23.8 percent first-read target share, yet producing under one yard per route run. That's mainly because Andrews' usage seems to be unreliable.
The Vikings' pass defense ranks 24th in team coverage grade. Isaiah Rodgers has been middle of the pack, allowing the 30th-most fantasy points per dropback and 20th-highest yards per route run. We discussed this in the Week 9 WR/CB Matchup article, but the Vikings' defense allows the most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes of 20 or more yards.
Guess who thrives when targeted deep? That's Flowers, who garners a team-high 35.2 percent air yards share, 41 percent target rate, and 6.18 yards per route run. We should have a spike performance from Flowers in Week 10.
Alec Pierce vs. Mike Hughes
Pierce had a career-high in targets (13) in Week 9 after 10 in Week 7. However, that was also an outlier game against the Steelers because Daniel Jones attempted a pass 50 times in Week 9, compared to 30.4 in Weeks 1-8. That said, Pierce continues to run a high percentage of routes while being their downfield threat.
That's evident in Pierce garnering a 45.4 percent air yards share while ranking second on the team in first-read target share. The Colts face a Falcons' pass defense that tends to be zone-heavy, using zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate, yet allowing the third-most fantasy points per dropback.
The Falcons' defense has been relatively beatable against zone coverage, which surprisingly favors Pierce, who leads the team in yards per route run, Average Separation Score, and win rate. Meanwhile, Tyler Warren (23 percent), Michael Pittman (25 percent), and Josh Downs (23 percent) have been leading the team in target rate against zone.
Specifically, the Falcons deploy single-high looks at the highest rate and allow the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback in those situations. Pierce leads the Colts, with a 30 percent target rate and 3.69 yards per route run against single-high looks. Pittman's 22 percent target rate and 1.60 yards per route run trail Pierce, with Warren garnering a 20 percent target rate and 2.62 yards per route run.
Pierce projects to face Mike Hughes, who allows the 41st-most fantasy points per route run and the 31st-highest yards per route run. The Falcons have been limiting fantasy points per dropback on deep passes against single-high looks, allowing the 11th-fewest. That might suggest the Falcons can contain opposing pass catchers on deep passes, so maybe the Colts need to target them in the short- and middle-areas of the field to generate big plays.
As a team, the Falcons' secondary ranks 22nd in coverage grades, so they're somewhat beatable through the air. Pierce has been shifting in a startable WR3 in most formats.
Troy Franklin vs. Darnay Holmes
After Franklin scored a career-high in fantasy points (26.9) in Week 8 against the Cowboys, he struggled with efficiency against a challenging Texans' secondary. The usage was awesome again for Franklin, ranking 12th in expected fantasy points over the past two games.
Franklin has been matching Courtland Sutton in air yards shares and first-read targets. However, Franklin's usage suggests better production, and we saw glimpses of it this year. Franklin has been the primary slot receiver for the Broncos, and that's typically a matchup to target against Darnay Holmes.
Holmes allows the fifth-most yards per slot coverage snap while allowing the 11th-highest passer rating. The Raiders' pass defense deploys zone coverage at the highest rate, while allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Raiders use Cover 3 at the second-highest percentage.
Sutton bests Franklin in yards per route run, but they both have a similar target per route rate against zone coverage. The Broncos have been scheming up RJ Harvey with a team-high 30 percent target rate and 2.01 yards per route run against zone coverage.
When we filter by Cover 3, Franklin garners a 22 percent target rate, with Sutton at 24 percent. However, Franklin's 2.26 yards per route run bests Sutton's at 1.68 against Cover 3. Bo Nix tends to rely on the tight ends against Cover 3, including Evan Engram (24 percent, 1.50 yards per route) and Adam Trautman (22 percent, 2.26 yards per route) among Broncos' pass catchers with five or more opportunities.
Holmes has been one of the worst cornerbacks, allowing the sixth-highest fantasy points per route run and the eighth-most yards per route. We rarely cover receivers playing on Thursday night, but Franklin should be valued closer to Sutton based on their usage, especially against a softer slot matchup.
Week 10 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
DK Metcalf vs. Donte Jackson
The Chargers' secondary has been solid, ranking fourth in team coverage grade behind the Packers, Chiefs, and Rams. They traded away Ja'Sir Taylor to the Jets, which likely has more of an impact on Calvin Austin and the tight ends. Metcalf has been leading the Steelers' pass catchers in air yards share, first-read target rate, and yards per route run.
The Chargers' pass defense tends to be more zone-heavy, using zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate, yet they allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback. They also tend to use two-high coverages at the sixth-highest percentage while giving up the sixth-lowest fantasy points per dropback.
Metcalf has been sneakily producing a team-high 2.84 yards per route run against zone coverage, ahead of Jaylen Warren. Typically, we find tight ends and running backs with better numbers against zone, though Metcalf has shown he can win against man coverage in the past.
Metcalf's 1.97 yards per route run trails Pat Freiermuth at 2.13 against two-high looks. Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith leads the team in target rate (22 percent), compared to Metcalf at 15 percent and Freiermuth's 18 percent target per route rate versus two-high coverages. It might be risky because Metcalf possesses the athleticism to produce well on 1-2 big plays.
Metcalf projects to face Donte Jackson, who allows the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route run and the fifth-fewest yards per route run. Furthermore, the Chargers' pass defense allows the sixth-lowest fantasy points per dropback on deep passes while deploying zone coverage and the ninth-fewest against two-high looks.
Metcalf ranks second on the team in target rate (39 percent) behind Austin (46 percent). Meanwhile, Metcalf's 3.87 yards per route run bests Austin's 1.69 among the Steelers' pass catchers with five or more deep targets. This matchup projects like a strength against strength-type matchup, so there might be some volatility in Metcalf's downgraded matchup in Week 10.
Khalil Shakir vs. Minkah Fitzpatrick
Somehow, the Dolphins' pass defense continues to limit fantasy points to opposing receivers, especially in the slot. The Dolphins' pass defense allows the 25th-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot. Part of the issue involves opposing offenses ranking 30th in targets to the slot.
Shakir ranks second behind Dalton Kincaid in target per route rate, with a nearly identical first-read target share to Keon Coleman. Based on Shakir's usage, he has been one of the more efficient pass catchers, averaging over two fantasy points above expectation.
The Dolphins' defense deploys man coverage at the 14th-highest rate, yet allows the most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, they allow the 13th-most fantasy points per dropback against zone coverage. That's typically where Shakir thrives against zone coverage.
Kincaid leads the Bills' pass catchers in yards per route run while tying Shakir in target rate (28 percent) against zone coverage. Wildly enough, Kincaid leads the team in yards per route against man coverage while besting Coleman in target rate, making it a friendly matchup for the tight end.
Specifically, the Dolphins 'pass defense deploys two-high looks at the fifth-highest rate while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. Kincaid crushes it against two-high, garnering a 28 percent target rate and producing 3.02 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Shakir earns a 23 percent target rate, yet only 1.38 yards per route against two-high looks.
The Dolphins use safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in the slot most often. Fitzpatrick allows the fifth-lowest yards per slot coverage snap. Furthermore, Fitzpatrick allows the lowest fantasy points per route run and yards per route, adding to the concern about Shakir's matchup.
That's still a relatively decent target rate against two-high, so it might be similar to Week 9, where Shakir garners the volume but lacks the efficiency. The Bills have the highest implied total in Week 10 at 30.5 points while being 9.5-point favorites against the Dolphins. We've seen the Dolphins upset a highly favored team before, but be cautious about hoping variance hits for Shakir in Week 10.
Parker Washington vs. Jalen Pitre
With Travis Hunter on injured reserve and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially missing time, Parker Washington automatically becomes one of their top pass catchers. The Jaguars added Jakobi Meyers and can't wait for Brenton Strange to return soon. Add in Dyami Brown's concussion late in Week 9, and the Jaguars will be digging into their depth.
Washington's usage suggests better production. That's evident in Washington's higher expected fantasy points than the actual outcomes, though that seems to be a trend for the entire Jaguars' pass catchers. We've seen Washington's usage increase over the past two weeks, which makes us wonder why we might be downgrading him in Week 10.
In PPR leagues, Washington could be a Shakir-light type player, garnering a high target rate while being fed with targets on a team that's been hurt by injuries. Washington faces a Texans' pass defense that allows the 25th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. They prefer to use zone coverage at the second-highest rate while giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback.
Washington leads the team in target rate against zone coverage, while averaging 1.61 yards per route run. Meyers, their new addition, can also produce against zone coverage, though there might be some overlap in their skill sets.
Furthermore, the Texans' pass defense tends to use a mixture of two-high (No. 11) and single-high (No. 22). However, the Texans' defense allows the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback against two-high and the fifth-lowest versus single-high looks.
Against two-high, Washington struggles, with a lowly 0.81 yards per route run while garnering a 21 percent target rate. Unfortunately, the Jaguars' pass catchers who tend to produce well against two-high have been or will be sidelined by injuries. Like the Dolphins, the Texans have safety Jalen Pitre cover the slot most often.
Pitre allows the 29th-highest yards per slot coverage snap, yet the sixth-lowest passer rating allowed. Furthermore, Pitre gave up the 28th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 13th-fewest yards per route run. Besides the matchup between the Browns and Jets, the Jaguars and Texans project as one of the lowest over/unders in Week 10.
Washington's usage suggests we should trust him in lineups, but there's a low probability of a boom performance against the Texans.
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