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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 9 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We have a decent sample of eight weeks in the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 9 sorted alphabetically. The Browns, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers have a bye week during Week 9. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded) or injured player (orange text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows team offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Dallas Cowboys.
The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Rams.
The visual below shows offenses from the Los Angeles Chargers to the New York Giants.
Finally, here is the chart sorted by the Pittsburgh Steelers through the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 9 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 9 WR/CB Matchups
Week 9 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Darius Slay
Josh Downs vs. Jalen Ramsey
The Colts have been one of the better offenses through the first eight weeks. They rank second in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per rush attempt. Pittman leads the pass catchers in first-read target share at 25.7 percent, with Tyler Warren close behind at 22.5 percent. Among the Colts' pass catchers who ran a route in 50 percent of the team's dropbacks, Alec Pierce boasts the best yards per route run (2.37), ahead of Warren (2.32) and Pittman (2.02).
The Colts face a man-heavy Steelers' pass defense, using man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. They've been respectable by allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per dropback. The Steelers' pass defense specifically uses single-high coverage at the third-highest rate and deploys Cover 1 at the sixth-highest rate.
Pittman has been garnering a similar target rate against man (27 percent) and zone (25 percent) coverage. Meanwhile, Pittman also produces similarly, though we've seen a significantly better Average Separation Score against man coverage, which should bode well against the Steelers' pass defense. Not everyone can eat in the Colts' offense when they're running smoothly, but Downs also showed he can separate, produce, and win against man coverage.
Pittman garners a team-high 25 percent target per route rate with Downs at 21 percent against Cover 1, among Colts' pass catchers with five or more targets. Downs (1.66) trails Pittman (2.20) in yards per route run against Cover 1, though maybe we're underselling Pierce. Pierce boasts a 39 percent target rate and 4.18 yards per route run versus Cover 1, making him a dangerous deep league option.
Interestingly, the Steelers' pass defense ranks 26th in team coverage grades, making them one of the worst secondaries. It's worth noting that the individual matchups don't scream high-end outcomes, but the Steelers can be beatable, especially against high-end offenses like the Colts. Pittman projects to face Darius Slay, who allows the 21st-most fantasy points per route run and 21st in yards per route allowed.
Jalen Ramsey has been covering the slot more frequently in recent weeks, meaning he is projected to face the Downs. Ramsey's individual matchups have been better than Slay's, evidenced by Ramsey's 0.22 fantasy points per route and 1.00 yards per route run. Downs has the juice to beat Ramsey in coverage with his athleticism for 1-2 plays per game.
Furthermore, the Steelers' pass defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes (20+ yards) behind the Cowboys, Vikings, Bears, and Titans. The Colts' passing offense ranks 12th in deep pass percentage while ranking 13th in explosive pass percentage. We'll want a piece of the Colts' passing offense in Week 9, as the Colts and Steelers project as one of five games with an over/under of 50 points or higher. Have confidence in Pittman and Downs, with Pierce being a deep sleeper.
Travis Hunter vs. Darnay Holmes
Travis Hunter has been the Jaguars' primary slot receiver, while running the second-highest percentage of routes (72.4 percent) behind Brian Thomas Jr. There are notable differences in first-read target share and air yards share for Hunter and Thomas, yet a similar yards per route run. Many have been speculating about Hunter taking additional steps forward as they come out of their bye week.
Hunter faces a Raiders' pass defense using zone coverage at the highest rate, but they've been susceptible, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback. Though there's a difference in usage, the Raiders' pass defense allows the 12th-highest fantasy points per dropback against man coverage.
Thomas and Hunter have been more productive against man coverage, so maybe this is a trickier matchup than the numbers suggest. The Raiders use Cover 3 at the second-highest rate. Among Jaguars' pass catchers with 10 or more targets, Thomas leads the team with a 27 percent target rate, with Parker Washington (25 percent) and Hunter (20 percent) behind him when facing Cover 3.
Unfortunately, Hunter (0.74), Thomas (1.30), and Washington (1.83) have been relatively unproductive in yards per route run against Cover 3. That aligns with the man and zone coverage data and tendency. Hunter projects to face Darnay Holmes, who covers the Raiders' slot receiver. Holmes allows the fifth-most fantasy points per route and the 15th-highest yards per route run.
The Raiders' pass defense ranks 31st in team coverage grade, ahead of the Cowboys, making them a target for opposing pass catchers like Hunter in a fantasy-friendly matchup. However, it might be more of a frustrating situation if the Jaguars' passing offense struggles to move the ball.
Update: Unfortunately, Hunter landed on injured reserve with a knee injury, so the second-half breakout will be delayed.
Kayshon Boutte vs. Mike Hughes
Kayshon Boutte ranks ninth in FPOE/G, similar to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, meaning they're both more efficient than their usage suggests. The main difference involves Bourne averaging under 10 expected fantasy points per game among the players with the highest FPOE/G heading into Week 9.
Boutte leads the team in routes (70.9 percent) and air yards share (28.3 percent). However, Boutte trails Stefon Diggs in first-read target share and yards per route run (2.60). Based on Boutte's usage, he has been connecting with less probable plays to outperform the expected metrics.
The Falcons' pass defense uses zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate, but they allow the third-most fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Falcons' pass defense deploys Cover 3 at the highest rate, over half the time (50.5 percent). Boutte garners a team-high 2.43 yards per route run against zone, with Diggs close behind (2.20), suggesting Drake Maye should look toward Boutte and Diggs in Week 9.
Boutte's numbers against Cover 3 have been decent, with a 20 percent target rate and 2.54 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Diggs leads the team with 2.79 yards per route run, while having a target per route rate of 23 percent. Furthermore, the Falcons use single-high looks for a whopping 72 percent of the time (No. 1), ahead of the Browns (64.8 percent) and Steelers (63 percent) in 2025.
Diggs earns a 26 percent target rate, with Boutte earning a 17 percent target per route percentage against single-high coverage. Both Diggs (3.21) and Boutte (2.10) average more than 2.00 yards per route run against single-high, making it a softer matchup to attack in Week 9. The Falcons have been below-average, with the 18th-best team coverage grade.
Boutte projects to face Mike Hughes, allowing the 27th-most fantasy points per route and the 27th-highest yards per route run. Hughes has been one of the worst Falcons' cornerbacks, though there could be regression for Boutte at some point based on the WR4-type usage.
We'll finish with this final note, though we're dealing with a small sample. The Falcons' pass defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes while using zone coverage. On deep passes against zone, Boutte leads the team with a 64 percent target per route rate and 15.54 yards per route run.
When we remove zone coverage, Boutte continues to lead the Patriots with a 50 percent target rate and 11.94 yards per route, while accounting for 41.4 percent of the team's receiving yards. It can be a volatile role for Boutte, but there should be one more upcoming boom week.
Jameson Williams vs. Isaiah Rodgers
We'll give you all a bonus one since Hunter landed on injured reserve. Williams has been running routes at a similar rate to Amon-Ra St. Brown, with a near-identical air yards share. However, St. Brown boasts an elite first-read target share while Williams has been one of the many secondary options in the passing game.
The Vikings' pass defense allows the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback against man coverage, which they run at the 19th-highest rate. They deploy two-high looks at the highest percentage (69.4 percent), which is over seven points above the Seahawks' rate (62 percent). However, the Vikings' pass defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback while deploying two-high looks.
Williams hasn't been productive, with under one yard per route run (0.84) while garnering an 18 percent target rate against man coverage. The Lions' Offensive Coordinator, John Morton, discussed how they need to do a better job of feeding Williams. That said, Williams continues to show he can separate and win against man coverage, but the targets and yards haven't been there.
The Vikings tend to play more man coverage (No. 6) when opposing offenses target them on deep passes (20+ yards). That said, the Vikings' pass defense allows the most fantasy points per dropback, ahead of the Bears, Titans, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins against deep passes.
Guess which Lions' pass catcher tends to be targeted most often on deep passes? That's Williams, who leads the team on deep passes of 20+ yards with a 69 percent target per route rate and 5.23 yards per route run. Meanwhile, St. Brown garners a 17 percent target rate and 1.50 yards per route run on deep passes. Passing volume might be an issue, especially because the Lions are 8.5-point favorites, with one of the highest game totals at 48.5 points.
It's risky, but Williams should be lined up for a boom spot in Week 9.
Saturday Update: Jeff Okudah, the original matchup, was ruled out, so Isaiah Rodgers should cover Williams more in coverage. The individual matchup might be less friendly compared to Okudah, but the deep target potential makes him an upside choice for fantasy managers.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Elic Ayomanor vs. Donte Jackson
The Titans' pass defense ranks 31st in EPA per dropback and 24th in passing success rate. Ayomanor possesses the raw tools, with an 82nd percentile Speed Score and 84th percentile Explosive Score. Interestingly, Ayomanor leads the team in route percentage and expected fantasy points (xFP) per game among their pass catchers. He nearly matches Calvin Ridley in air yards share and first-read target percentage.
They face a Chargers' pass defense, running the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage while allowing the sixth-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Chargers deploy two-high looks at the sixth-highest percentage. Ridley has been leading the team in yards per route run and target rate against zone coverage. However, Ayomanor showed below-average underlying metrics against zone defenses.
Against two-high looks, Ridley leads the team in target rate (27 percent), with Ayomanor (18) and Chimere Dike (19) trailing him. Ridley might be a sleeper heading into Week 9, though Ayomanor posts a below-average 0.75 yards per route run against two-high coverage.
The Chargers' secondary ranks fifth in team coverage grades. Ayomanor projects to face Donte Jackson, allowing the 10th-lowest fantasy points per route run. There should be negative scripts and potential passing volume in the Titans' favor to balance the projected struggles with the Chargers' secondary.
Darnell Mooney vs. Christian Gonzalez
Without Drake London last week, the Falcons' offense looked dreadful against a beatable Dolphins' defense. Injuries and an unexpected game script, like Week 8, caused Mooney to be one of the most inefficient receivers. Mooney has been the fifth-worst receiver in fantasy points over expected per game.
Mooney trails London in air yards share (29.5 percent) and first-read target share (20.8 percent). The Patriots' pass defense uses man coverage at the 10th-highest rate, yet allows the second-most fantasy points per dropback. That suggests the Patriots' pass defense can be beaten, though those numbers improved since Week 4 when Christian Gonzalez returned.
In Weeks 4-8, the Patriots' pass defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback when using man coverage. While that might not seem like an improvement, they're ninth-best in team coverage grade in 2025.
Mooney has tied for a team-high 27 percent target rate against man coverage, but Kyle Pitts Sr. weirdly leads the team in yards per route run. London has been the top target earner (36 percent) and producer (3.38) in yards per route run against zone coverage, though we know he can be productive against any coverage. If London plays, Gonzalez might cover him often. However, Marcus Jones, who covers the slot most often for the Patriots, has also been a challenging matchup.
If Mooney faces Gonzalez, he allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per coverage route and the eighth-lowest yards per route run. Jones allows the 43rd-most fantasy points per route and the 41st-most yards per route run, which would be slightly better than the league average. Specifically in the slot, where Mooney ran most of his routes, Jones allowed the 12th-lowest yards per slot coverage snap and the third-lowest passer rating against among qualified slot cornerbacks.
Be cautious about Mooney, even if London and Michael Penix Jr. return.
Keon Coleman vs. Trent McDuffie
The game between the Bills and Chiefs has the second-highest point total (51.5 to 52.5) in Week 9, so we could see offensive explosions, meaning Coleman could be part of that formula. Coleman leads the team in route participation, air yards share, and first-read target share. However, Coleman ranks fourth in yards per route run among the top Bills' pass catchers with a route rate at 40 percent or higher.
The Chiefs' pass defense allows the fewest fantasy points per dropback against man coverage while using man coverage at the 14th-highest rate. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allow the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback when deploying zone coverage. Specifically, they utilize two-high looks at the seventh-highest rate and allow the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback.
Interestingly, Dalton Kincaid has been leading the team in yards per route run among their top pass catchers, not including Elijah Moore's small sample. Khalil Shakir and Kincaid garner a similar target rate against zone coverage, with Coleman and Kincaid earning a similar target per route rate versus man.
Kincaid (24 percent), Shakir (22 percent), Coleman (22 percent), and Joshua Palmer (20 percent) lead the team in target per route rate against two-high looks. Besides Shakir's 1.17 yards per route run, the other three have been relatively decent against two-high coverage. That's evident in Kincaid's 2.11 yards per route, compared to Coleman at 1.78 and Palmer with 1.96 when facing two high.
Coleman faces a Chiefs' secondary that ranks first in team coverage grades, making them a challenging matchup regardless of whether Trent McDuffie or Jaylen Watson covers him. McDuffie allows the 25th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 16th-lowest yards per route run. Watson has been even better, allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route.
The Chiefs' passing defense tends to be more vulnerable against the slot, with Chamarri Conner allowing the 20th-highest yards per slot coverage snap and the eighth-highest passer rating allowed. That's where Shakir thrives, not Coleman.
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