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Expert Week 4 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is here. Sunday’s slate boasts an international matchup in Dublin, Ireland, along with several cross-conference matchups. As of this writing, there are zero 50+ point over/under games and only a single game within a point of that (Colts at Rams, 49.5 points at Draftkings Sportsbook).
Last week, our Anytime TD picks had two more hits in George Pickens and Travis Etienne Jr., finishing in the positive again at +0.5 units (one unit bets).
This column aims to pinpoint positive expected value touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
Omarion Hampton, RB - Los Angeles Chargers (-125)
Hampton had a slower start to the fantasy season, tallying only 72 yards in his first two games. A season-ending injury to veteran Najee Harris thrust the rookie into workhorse mode in week 3 against a tough Broncos defense, where he tallied 129 total yards and his first NFL touchdown.
Hampton and the Chargers visit the Giants on Sunday, who are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA. They have allowed four different running backs to score on them already, and Hampton is likely to be the fifth. He is the only Chargers back with any red zone carries (10). Jim Harbaugh has also shown trust in the 22-year-old at the goal line, giving him four carries inside the five-yard line thus far.
With no competition in the back field, Hampton is likely to be called on once more when Los Angeles gets in the red zone; the team is averaging 3.3 red zone trips per game (a top-12 mark).
Nico Collins, WR - Houston Texans (+105)
This is a pick looking to get ahead of the market on the Texans, who have been miserable on offense through three games. Houston has started the season 0-3, scoring an average of 12.6 points per game. Their star receiver has been the lone bright spot, scoring two of the team’s three touchdowns and tallying his first 100-yard receiving game of the season last week against the Jags.
The Texans get another divisional matchup on Sunday as they host the Titans. Tennessee has allowed a touchdown to the opposing team’s WR1 in each of its first three games. Collins is tied for ninth among pass catchers in red zone targets as well, with nine.
This could be a get-right game for CJ Stroud and the Texans, who will need to spotlight Collins to get in the win column. Woody Marks is also in play this week for an anytime TD (+205).
Bucky Irving, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115)
Bucky Irving is an excellent play this weekend. He is a volume-heavy workhorse, ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts with 56. While you would think that makes this a chalky play, the +115 price tag on DK accounts for a lack of touchdown production from the Tampa Bay running game to date. Bucky’s sole touchdown of the season so far came through the air last week against the Falcons.
The Buccs face off against the Eagles this Sunday, who are heading into the weekend with a litany of injuries to their front seven. Despite boasting big names across the defense, Philadelphia is giving up an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-worst in the NFL).
Bucky Irving is a WORKHORSE 😤 pic.twitter.com/M8vDzXuyLq
— PFF Fantasy (@PFF_Fantasy) September 24, 2025
While Irving has shown big-play ability to score from outside the red zone in the past, this will be an important factor in him reaching paydirt on Sunday. The second-year back is the only running back within the top-12 in attempts to not record a rush in the red zone to date. Look for that to change on Sunday if Tampa Bay decides to attack the Eagles’ current defensive weakness.
Davante Adams, WR - Los Angeles (+115)
Adams has had an impressive start to his 2025 campaign, scoring two touchdowns already in this young season and showing a strong rapport with Matthew Stafford despite offseason injuries keeping them from throwing in the offseason.
Adams is a wizard at getting open off the line of scrimmage, especially in the red zone. He is seventh in the NFL in total targets and first in red zone targets with 11 (tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown). His matchup with the Colts this week has the highest point total of the slate at 49.5 points, according to DK.
Last week, Adams tallied his third straight game with at least eight targets. Despite the early production, he has yet to unlock his potential this year, evidenced by a 44.8% catch rate. If he can maintain a healthy red zone target share and increase his catch rate, he will continue to be an excellent pick to score any week. Adams is a great bet for the first touchdown or as a multi-touchdown pick.
Jake Ferguson, TE - Dallas Cowboys (+175)
Jake Ferguson has raised eyebrows in the first month of the season, entering Week 4 second among all pass catchers in catches, including 26 targets in his last two games. His 32 targets have included high-value looks as well, with two end zone targets. He is likely to get additional red zone looks this coming week against the Packers with star receiver CeeDee Lamb out nursing an ankle injury that will likely keep him out for an extended period.
The Cowboys have a matchup with Green Bay next on the schedule. The last time Ferguson played against the Packers in 2023, he scored three touchdowns. While this year’s iteration of the Packers have an intimidating defense with Micah Parsons making an immediate impact, they have been susceptible to TEs. Green Bay ranks fifth-worst in fantasy points against opposing tight ends.
While Ferguson has yet to score a touchdown despite the massive workload, the absence of Lamb against a defense that has given up considerable production to the position bodes well for his anytime TD likelihood.
Chris Olave, WR - New Orleans Saints (+275)
Betting on the Saints this season is not for the faint of heart, but Olave is a great pick for bettors looking for longer odds but great expected value. Despite a sputtering offense, the Saints’ star receiver leads the NFL in targets with 36, including a healthy 10 red zone targets and four end zone targets.
The Saints are up against the Bills this week in the game with the highest spread of the slate (Buffalo -14.5). Given the likely passing game script, there is every reason for Olave to extend his target lead this week, giving him an excellent opportunity for a touchdown. Despite the volume and attention he has been getting from QB Spencer Rattler, there are eight players in this game with shorter anytime TD odds than him. He is a better bet than his 26.7% implied probability would tell you. Don’t hesitate to bet on Olave this week, despite how the Saints fare.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Pick
Kareem Hunt, RB - Kansas City Chiefs (+1200)
Hunt is a below-the-radar sneaky pick for the first touchdown in the Ravens-Chiefs game Sunday afternoon. Baltimore has given up the most rushing touchdowns and the sixth-most rushing attempts in their three games this season. Hunt is the only Chiefs rusher with a carry inside the five-yard line, and the only Chiefs back with a touchdown.
A successful opening game script for Kansas City would include leaning on the run to lengthen their time of possession and set the tone. If they are the team to strike first, they should be leaning more heavily into the run game to start. Hunt is the best bet to find paydirt if that comes to fruition.
