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Kyle's free NFL betting picks for Super Bowl LX of the 2025-26 NFL season and expert predictions for Super Bowl LX. His NFL best bets for Super Bowl LX and his favorite plays.
The week of the big game has arrived. We're treated to an enticing matchup between two teams that won 14 games apiece in the regular season. Their combined win total ties for the second-most wins in Super Bowl history, along with the 2022 Eagles and Chiefs and the 1998 Falcons and Broncos.
This Super Bowl features the top two teams by weighted DVOA, with the Seahawks holding a sizable advantage over the rest of the league in this metric and profiling as a historically great team. The Patriots defense, however, has been on a historic run of its own in the playoffs, becoming the 13th team in the Super Bowl era to allow 26 points or fewer across a three-game span in the playoffs. While some of that success can be attributed to the shaky opposing QB play and the weather conditions, the New England defense is still a very good unit.
In this piece, we'll take a deeper look at historical numbers and trends before digging into some matchup-specific stats to see where each team may hold an edge. Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are our best bets for Super Bowl LX.
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Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots (O/U 45.5)
We have a rematch from Super Bowl XLIX in this one. Famously, the Patriots won 28-24, with Malcolm Butler intercepting Russell Wilson on the goal line with 20 seconds left.
February 1, 2015
THE MALCOLM BUTLER PLAY
The stunning conclusion of Super Bowl XLIX — #Patriots and #Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch is stopped at the one, setting the stage for one of NFL history's most shocking moments.
Seattle eschews the run and Russell Wilson's pass is picked… pic.twitter.com/lpTRKY1E8U
— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) February 1, 2026
Looking at Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) and Strength of Schedule (SoS) metrics gives further insight into each team. SRS combines a team's point differential and strength of schedule and assigns a rating to each team, with 0 being average.
SoS measures the combined winning percentage of each team's opponents played that season, with a higher SoS representing a tougher schedule and a lower number signaling an easier one.
The Seahawks led the NFL with a 12.85 SRS this season, indicating they are roughly 13 points better than a league-average team, while the Patriots sit at 5.51, sixth in the league. Historically, Seattle's SRS ranks 14th all-time among 120 Super Bowl teams, while New England ranks 29th lowest.
The 7.34 difference in SRS is one of the largest in Super Bowl history, the 15th biggest, and the widest gap since Super Bowl XLIII between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals in the 2008 season.
The Patriots notoriously had one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, with their opponents in the regular season combining for just a .391 winning percentage, easily the lowest in the league. Their -4.49 SoS ranks as the third lowest among Super Bowl teams, trailing only the 1970 Baltimore Colts, who won, and the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who lost.
The Seahawks' strength of schedule was 1.61, the seventh toughest in the league this season, and ranks 30th all-time among Super Bowl teams. The 6.1 difference in SoS is the second biggest in Super Bowl history, only behind Super Bowl V in 1970.
the offensive and defensive efficiency of every super bowl team since 2014 with the 2025 seahawks and 2025 patriots included! pic.twitter.com/XOTinXd59O
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 1, 2026
Turning to the matchup, it's a fun one if you like deep shots and explosive plays. New England finished the regular season with the most explosive offense in football at 8.1%, with Seattle ranking fourth at 7.4%.
Drake Maye (15.6) and Sam Darnold (16.6) ranked first and second in yards per attempt, and completion percentage on throws 15+ yards downfield, with Maye completing a league-high 60.5% of passes and Darnold just behind at 57.6% (minimum 60 attempts).
The obvious focal point of Seattle's passing game is superstar wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who posted a historic season with 1,793 yards, the 15th season with 1,700 or more yards in the Super Bowl era. He accounted for an absurd 44.1% of Seattle's receiving yards, by far the most in the league.
UPDATED: Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards without leading the NFL in yards on any route, per @NextGenStats.
JSN's route production this season (NFL rank)…
🔹Go – 279 (5th)
🔹Out – 267 (2nd)
🔹Post – 265 (2nd)
🔹Slant – 226 (2nd)
🔹Cross – 187 (6th)… https://t.co/I9IIPXfYag— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 30, 2026
New England is capable of limiting JSN with star cornerback Christian Gonzalez, as it has allowed the second-fewest passes per game to opposing WR1s this season.
However, teams have had success when they do target their top receiver against the Patriots, generating the second-highest DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Seattle moves JSN around quite a bit, and the Patriots have typically kept their cornerbacks on the same side, but that matchup will certainly be one to keep an eye on when they line up against each other.
Another area where New England could have an edge is on third downs. The Patriots have blitzed on 45 dropbacks on third down since Week 10, the most in the league. They've allowed just a 1.79 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), third best in that span. Over that same stretch, Darnold ranked 31st out of 33 QBs with a 1.21 ANY/A against the blitz on third down, only ahead of Max Brosmer and Tua Tagovailoa (minimum 10 dropbacks).
Sticking on the defensive side for New England, it has been the league's top unit against play action since Week 10, allowing a league-low 37.9 yards per game and just 4.85 yards per attempt in that span, per Fantasy Points Data.
Meanwhile, working play action off its run game has been Seattle's bread and butter all season. Darnold posted the best big-time throw rate (10.1%) and the second-highest Y/A (11.0) on play-action passes this season. This sets up a classic strength-on-strength matchup.
When New England has the ball, the league's most explosive offense will have a challenge generating those chunk plays against this Seahawks defense. Seattle was a bit more gettable through the air, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive pass rate (8.0%), along with the lowest explosive rush rate (7.1%) this season. It will be challenging for the Patriots to run the ball against this unit. The Seahawks allowed a league-best 3.8 yards per carry despite stacking the box on just 12.6% of plays, second lowest in the league.
Maye has struggled in the playoffs against stiffer competition, posting just a 31.5% passing success rate, the lowest for a QB in the playoffs since Mark Brunell in 2005 (minimum 50 attempts). It also marks the lowest success rate ever by a QB to reach the Super Bowl, surpassing the previous low of 33.7% by Trent Dilfer with the Baltimore Ravens in 2000.
New England's offensive line is notably weaker than the typical Super Bowl team, reminiscent of the 2021 Bengals with Joe Burrow, who is the only QB to take more sacks than Maye in a single postseason with 19 across four games. The Patriots are also just the sixth team to make the Super Bowl after allowing at least 48 sacks in the regular season, with those teams holding a 2-3 record in the game.
The Seahawks were the only team to have 5 players with 12+ QB hits each during the 2025 season
🔹Leonard Williams - 22
🔹DeMarcus Lawrence - 20
🔹Uchenna Nwosu - 15
🔹Byron Murphy II - 13
🔹Derick Hall - 13Drake Maye was hit the 8th-most in the NFL@Seahawks | #SuperBowlLX
— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) February 3, 2026
Both teams boast strong pass-rushing units, particularly up the middle with the defensive tackles. The Seahawks and Patriots are the only two teams with a pair of defensive tackles inside the top 10 for total pressures this season, with Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II for Seattle and Christian Barmore and Milton Williams for New England, per PFF.
And the head coach battle between the two Mikes is a fascinating one, as Mike Macdonald has quickly emerged as arguably the best head coach in football, living up to the "defensive Sean McVay" comparisons, while Mike Vrabel has his team in the Super Bowl in his first season in charge.
Seahawks are currently 4.5-pt favorites vs. Patriots in Super Bowl 60:
Dating back to Super Bowl 30 -- 30 years ago -- We've had sixteen SB's close with a spread of 4.5 or more...
The underdog is 12-2-2 ATS in those games, covering 7 in a row ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/OtqUl4BQXm
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) January 28, 2026
There are plenty of Super Bowl trends that favor the underdog, with dogs covering in the last five games. However, Seattle has advantages all over the field, even though there are a few avenues where New England may have an edge.
And it has to be mentioned that the Darnold stinker game is always in the back of your mind, especially against the Patriots, as it is the same guy who led the NFL in turnovers in the regular season.
But Darnold is coming off an excellent performance in the NFC Championship. We will side with Seattle to win and cover in what projects to be a lower scoring game. Seahawks 27, Patriots 17.
Picks: Seahawks -4.5 (-101 NOVIG), Under 45.5 (-105 NOVIG)
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Other Super Bowl Bets and Props
First Quarter Under 8.5 Points (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook
Seattle has been led by its defense all season, and New England is in the midst of a dominant playoff run. Teams in the Super Bowl typically start slower and more conservatively after standing around in pregame for longer than usual, in addition to expected nerves.
We'll expect a similar slow start out of the gate for both teams. The first quarter has gone under 8.5 points in six of the last 10 Super Bowls and four of the last five.
Drake Maye Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook
Maye's legs have been a bright spot for him despite his overall struggles in the playoffs. He's rushed for 66, 10, and 65 rushing yards in the three playoff games, reaching 10 rushing attempts in two of the three games after doing so only twice in 17 regular-season games.
The second-year QB has only hit this mark in seven out of 20 games this season (35%), and the Seahawks have only allowed two QBs to surpass this mark in 19 games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (-102 NOVIG)
JSN is Darnold's go-to target in nearly every situation. That doesn't change against the blitz, which New England has leaned more into in the playoffs. Since Week 10, JSN's target share jumps from 30.6% to 35.4% when defenses blitz.
He's scored in both playoff games so far, and his target share in the red zone has surged to 33.3% since Week 16, almost double the next closest Seattle pass-catcher at 18.5%. The superstar wideout is poised to stamp his name in this game in a 2021 Cooper Kupp-like fashion, making +600 odds for Super Bowl MVP an intriguing option.
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