Frank Ammirante's Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts: AFC/NFC West Edition (2025)

July 28, 2025

Frank Ammirante's players to target and avoid in the AFC West and NFC West for 2025 fantasy football leagues, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rashee Rice, and Ashton Jeanty.

We're now in the thick of fantasy football draft season, so let's dive into my targets and avoids for the AFC West and NFC West for 2025.

We'll review Underdog ADP as of July 21 to identify three targets and three avoids from each of these divisions.

With that in mind, find out why players like I'm targeting Ashton Jeanty, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and more, while also avoiding Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr, and others.

Fantasy Football AFC West Targets

Ashton Jeanty - RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Underdog ADP: 12.4 (RB5)

Ashton Jeanty is an elite running back prospect at the level of Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott. This is a projected bellcow playing in a fast-paced offense with Chip Kelly as playcaller.

Ashton Jeanty is the ninth RB to go in the Top 10 since 2010.

Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott smashed.

Leonard Fournette was solid.

Trent Richardson turned out to be a bust.

Bijan Robinson and Todd Gurley were held back by coaching.

Christian McCaffrey shared work with… pic.twitter.com/Sfm1aDayB7

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 23, 2025

Don't worry about Raheem Mostert taking away valuable touches. Expect Jeanty to be the focal point of this offense, especially since new head coach Pete Carroll loves to establish the run.

Right now, Jeanty is being drafted at the end of the first round, but he should be going higher due to his combination of talent and role. I'd take the former Boise State standout over players going ahead of him like Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Marvin Mims Jr. - WR, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: 127.4 (WR59)

Marvin Mims Jr. is a talented wideout who came on strong down the stretch of his second season in the NFL. This is a playmaker who can make things happen after the catch, which is why the Broncos gave him so many manufactured touches at the line of scrimmage.

Let's hope that Sean Payton keeps Marvin Mims Jr. heavily involved in the Broncos offense.

From Weeks 12-18:
4.21 Yards per Route Run (1st)
32.0% Targets per Route Run (4th)

*minimum 30 targets*

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 9, 2025

This feels like the case of a young player who has finally found his role in the offense. Even at 127.4 (WR59) ADP, Mims looks like a strong target due to his spike week upside.

Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Underdog ADP: 143.5 (WR62)

Quentin Johnston is the afterthought in the Chargers offense with Ladd McConkey looking like a stud and second-round rookie Tre Harris entering the fold. But don't count out Johnston, who showed some spike week potential last season.

Quentin Johnston spike weeks last year:

5-51-2
4-118-1
13-186

Pretty, pretty good.

Worth a dart throw late in best ball drafts.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 13, 2025

This appears to be a cost-effective piece for a Chargers stack in best ball or a viable end-of-bench stash in redraft leagues.

Fantasy Football AFC West Avoids

Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Underdog ADP: 36.1 (WR19)

Rashee Rice is recovering from a serious knee injury and faces an inevitable suspension that could last up to six games. Although his price has dipped, it hasn't fallen far enough to justify taking the plunge.

No, I'm not buying the dip on a player coming off a serious knee injury and now facing a guaranteed suspension. pic.twitter.com/CicglP5kyq

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 17, 2025

We already saw Xavier Worthy start to emerge during the Chiefs' playoff run. With more missed time for Rice, he could fall in the pecking order. I'd rather go with players like Mike Evans and Tetairoa McMillan at this current cost.

Update - Rice is expected to have his hearing with the NFL on September 30. As a result, Rice will now likely be able to play in the first four games of the season before any potential suspension is given. However, this could put him in danger of missing critical games during the final weeks of the season.

Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: 98.4 (QB9)

Bo Nix shattered expectations with a rock-solid rookie season, providing a nice combination of floor and upside for 2025 fantasy football drafts, especially with an upgraded backfield that includes R.J. Harvey.

Once Bo Nix got comfortable, he really started to cook:

From Weeks 5-18: 21.4 PPG (QB6)

Currently being drafted as QB10.

Still a value.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 16, 2025

This is a rare case where I actually think the price is fair, but I'm still avoiding it. The reason is simple: there are quarterbacks who I prefer to take later in drafts. I view Drake Maye and Dak Prescott as two signal-callers with similar upside, but I can wait a round to take them.

J.K. Dobbins - RB, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: 111.3 (RB35)

J.K. Dobbins surprised most observers in his return from a torn Achilles to be a dependable back for the Chargers. We saw him sign with the Broncos late in the offseason, which always raises concerns about potential role.

💥 Explosive Run Rate 💥

1. Jahmyr Gibbs 16.4%
2. Cam Akers 15.4%
3. Jordan Mason 15.0%
4. James Conner 14.4%
5. Jaleel McLaughlin 14.2%
6. Derrick Henry 13.8%
7. J.K. Dobbins 13.8%
8. Saquon Barkley 13.3

🎥 @NFL pic.twitter.com/QDWsrfle8n

— FTN Fantasy (@FTNFantasy) June 27, 2025

While Dobbins showed burst last season, there's a good chance that he shares carries with Harvey. I preferred taking Dobbins when his price was at rock bottom while he was still a free agent. Now, he's gotten too expensive. I'd rather go with someone like Rhamondre Stevenson (available 10 picks later) if I wanted a veteran in a committee.

Fantasy Football NFC West Targets

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks

Underdog ADP: 32.2 (WR17)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a third-year wideout with first-round draft capital coming off a season where he showed significant improvements down the stretch.

Weeks 9-18:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 15.0 PPG (WR10)
Drake London: 13.8 PPG (WR14)

You can get JSN 15 picks later than London.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 4, 2025

Now the Seahawks have replaced DK Metcalf with Cooper Kupp. The former Ram is clearly declining, as highlighted by his poor finish to last season. With that in mind, there's a good chance that JSN will be absolutely peppered with targets this year. You're able to get a potential WR1 at the end of the third round, making this look like one of the best values this year.

George Kittle - TE, San Francisco 49ers

Underdog ADP: 38.9 (TE3)

George Kittle is another one of the best values in fantasy football drafts this season. We just saw him finish as TE1 in fantasy points per game. Now you can get him 15+ picks later than Brock Bowers.

George Kittle has played 13 games without Deebo Samuel since 2019, and Kittle averaged 16.1 PPR points over that span. Kittle has also played 12 games without Brandon Aiyuk since 2020, and Kittle averaged 14.6 PPR points over that span.

— Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg) July 19, 2025

With Deebo Samuel Sr. in Washington, Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL, and Ricky Pearsall still unproven, the 49ers will rely upon Kittle as one of their top targets. Don't be surprised if the 49ers' star repeats as TE1 this season.

Kenneth Walker - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Underdog ADP: 51.3 (RB16)

Kenneth Walker is an explosive runner who will benefit from an upgrade in scheme now that Klint Kubiak has been hired as the Seahawks' offensive coordinator. This is a run-friendly offense with a playcaller who comes from the Shanahan coaching tree.

Kenneth Walker vs Zach Charbonnet touches in 10 games together last year:

22-10
16-7
12-5
22-6
16-8
13-7
28-10
16-5
20-6
18-6

Double Charb’s touches (or more) in 9/10 games.

PFF’s 3rd highest-graded rusher last year – behind only D. Henry & Bijan.

THIS IS NOT A “COMMITTEE.” pic.twitter.com/KEpqK5BZM6

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFFWrld) July 17, 2025

Expect Walker to continue to dominate touches in this backfield. With improved rushing efficiency, there's a legit chance that this could be Walker's best season. I'd rather take Walker than the following running backs who go ahead of him: Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and Omarion Hampton.

Fantasy Football NFC West Avoids

Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Arizona Cardinals

Underdog ADP: 27.4 (WR14)

Harrison had one of the most disappointing rookie seasons in recent memory, failing to get to 1,000 yards despite going as an early second-round pick in fantasy football drafts.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Year 2 breakout?

👇Film was fine. Not great, not bad. Cleaned up as the season went on.

Negatives:
🔻Struggled separating vertically
🔻50/50 ball L's (can fluctuate a lot year-to-year)

Positives:
🔺Smooth vs press
🔺Fantastic feel for space at 22 year old https://t.co/OsJB4XAbz6

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 20, 2025

This doesn't mean that Harrison can't develop into the elite wideout that we all envisioned. However, the problem is that we're not getting a significant enough discount on the price.

Despite finishing as WR42 in fantasy points per game, Harrison is being selected as WR14 this season. Part of the reason why he was disappointing as a rookie was due to poor usage from offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who had him lined up out wide as a deep threat too often.

But the Cardinals haven't made changes to their coaching staff, so why should we assume that this usage will change? I'd rather go with DJ Moore -- who has a proven track record -- nearly 20 picks later.

Cooper Kupp - WR, Seattle Seahawks

Underdog ADP: 95.3 (WR51)

I mentioned how Cooper Kupp struggled down the stretch last season. In his previous three games, he combined for only 53 yards. As a veteran who has dealt with injuries and now is entering his age-32 season, it's hard to feel confident in a bounce-back.

Nobody ran more routes from the slot last year than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He ran 483 of his 576 routes from the slot (83.9%).

Cooper Kupp was 15th in Slot% at 64.8%.

Khalil Shakir ran 73.1% (10th) of his routes from the slot while Elijah Moore was at 56.1%.

(@FantasyPtsData)

— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) July 21, 2025

Kupp is a poor fit next to JSN, who excels in the slot. I'd rather go with younger players like Jayden Higgins at this price.

Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals

Underdog ADP: 95.4 (QB8)

Kyler Murray is a relatively safe play at quarterback, but I don't see the upside we've grown used to from the days when Kliff Kingsbury was his playcaller.

Kyler Murray fantasy PPG:

with Kliff Kingsbury as playcaller:

2019: 18.6
2020: 24.4
2021: 22.2
2022: 20.7

with Drew Petzing as playcaller:

2023: 18.9
2024: 18.1

I don't trust the Cardinals coaching staff.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 16, 2025

The Cardinals are building their team to focus more on their defense and running game. While Murray provides you with a nice floor, I'd rather swing for the fences on Caleb Williams later in the draft.

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