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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/15/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Wyatt Langford, Pete Alonso, and Cal Raleigh.
It's Father's Day, so I'll send a special shout-out to the rest of the dads out there who are holding it down and raising those kids right!
It's also a great day for Major League Baseball and some home run props. Let's see which hitters might ask the opposing pitcher, "Who's your daddy?" after launching a long ball.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, June 15, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/15/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, June 15:
- Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
- Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
- Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
- Mike Tauchman, Chicago White Sox
- Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Javier Baez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings/FanDuel Sportsbook)
I only get to write this column once a week, most weeks, so sometimes I get silly and recommend seven different dudes for home runs. And yeah, I am doing that again today. As usual, I am going to roll with some guys at long odds in an attempt to hit on one and make the entire day profitable with just one swing of the bat. I managed to do this earlier this year with Mike Tauchman at +700 odds, and today my longshot call comes from the early game, where the Tigers take on the Reds.
The Reds are rolling out 75-year-old lefty Wade Miley again to take his lumps, and I think this Tigers team will make quick work of him. Through two starts, Miley has a 2.6% SwStr% and 100% Z-Contact%, which means he literally can't get the ball by anyone. So why not take a shot on a hitter who is a high strikeout guy but who also has had really good power against lefties in his career?
Baez is enjoying a renaissance of sorts this season, swatting seven home runs, including one on Friday night in this series. I considered Gleyber Torres here, too, but I love the odds we are getting and the way that Baez matches up against Miley.
Taylor Ward OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)
This was a tough call as I like a lot of the Angels' righties today against Cade Povich, who has allowed 1.48 HR/9 this season. But Ward has long odds I am looking for, and better odds than Mike Trout and Jorge Soler, despite nearly equaling their combined total in home runs this season (18).
Povich is a fly-ball pitcher who has given up a ton of hard contact this season. His advanced metrics, specifically his batted ball data, is really poor across the board. He does strike some guys out, but when he gets hit, he gets hard.
The other thing going for Halos' hitters today is that the Baltimore bullpen ranks near the bottom of the league in ERA and HR/9 as well. I think we see a few Angels leave the yard today, either off Povich or the pen, let's hope that Ward is one of them.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'll keep this one pretty short and sweet since we have seven players to get to today. The polar bear (Alonso) is having a fantastic year and is mauling RHP to the tune of a .296 ISO and .606 SLG. He's lowered his strikeout rate and is making elite contact this season, which has resulted in a ton of hard-hit balls and extra base hits galore.
Shane Baz has not had the season many fantasy baseball managers were hoping for. While he has struck out his share of hitters, he's also allowed far too much loud contact, including 13 home runs already this season.
Pete Alonso is fearless.pic.twitter.com/h8QfOqG3DW
— Ben Yoel (@Ben_Yoel) June 14, 2025
Nine of those homers have come to RHH, as he's shown reverse splits this year. Righties are slugging .490 against Baz with a .361 wOBA. The Mets are hot right now, and while it's been a week since Alonso left the yard, he's still been crushing the baseball. Don't be surprised if he leaves the yard today.
Jose Altuve OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I simply had to have at least one Astros hitter in today's picks based on their matchup with Simeon Woods Richardson and his 1.70 HR/9, 6.08 xERA, and 15.9% barrel rate. The numbers on SWR are bad, and his 29% GB% tells us that he's going to continue to give up fly balls at a high rate. That's what we want to hear when looking for home runs - a pitcher who is getting hit hard and who has a fly-ball tendency.
Now, Houston has no left-handed power threats with Yordan Alvarez sidelined, but that doesn't matter too much as SWR has been equally bad to right-handed hitters this season.
Jose Altuve homers and drives in 3, the @Astros have won 14 of their last 20. pic.twitter.com/GlIiv621Lp
— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2025
Altuve has ten bombs on the season, and until yesterday's 0-4 (against Joe Ryan, I'll allow it), he was on quite a tear with four straight multi-hit games and a home run in Friday night's game. I like his chances here of turning on a fastball, and let's not forget those Crawford boxes in left field can help us out quite a bit on fly balls pulled right down the line.
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The Rangers' young outfielder has been enjoying a strong stretch of production since mid-May. His average is still catching up after a slow start, but he's up to 13 home runs on the season, including two bombs in his last four games.
Wyatt Langford’s 62.1% hard-hit% over the last 30 days is #2 in Major League Baseball!
He just added to it with a 105.5 MPH, 395 FT HR pic.twitter.com/6EdtRMBii5
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 11, 2025
Today, he and his fellow Ranger hitters will face the newly acquired Aaron Civale. Civale demanded a trade out of Milwaukee and was shipped to Chicago within a few days. He had not pitched well in Milwaukee, so I am not sure why he felt entitled to a spot in the Brewers' rotation.
Civale's 2.05 HR/9 is the worst on the slate, and he has also shown reverse splits this year, so I am going after him with the best right-handed power bat in this Texas lineup.
Mike Tauchman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+680 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Staying in the same game, I am going after another long shot bet here with the lefty leadoff hitter for the ChiSox. Kumar Rocker is back in the Texas rotation and I can't ignore how bad he's been in his limited chances this season.
Rocker has allowed a 14.3% barrel% and a 1.54 HR/9. He's been significantly worse against lefties, allowing a slash line of .444/.492/.722 and a wOBA of .514. Yikes! Three of the four home runs he has surrendered have been to lefties, too.
Tauchman leads off, but has plenty of power, too. He has four home runs already for Chicago in just about three weeks since returning from an injury that cause him to miss most of April and May.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is my first time recommending Raleigh for a HR prop, and I almost didn't do it just on principle (as I try not to recommend the most obvious plays). But I found some decent odds on FanDuel and I can't help but want to pick on Luis L. Ortiz today with one of the premier power hitters in baseball.
Cal Raleigh has been dumping baseballs into the bleachers 💪 pic.twitter.com/PRz13E84fQ
— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2025
Ortiz has displayed pretty sharp splits in his career, and while he's been better this season, he's still allowed seven home runs to LHH this season and a .346 wOBA. Raleigh has shown impressive power from both sides of the plate, but 18 of his 26 bombs have come against right-handed pitchers while hitting from the left side. It's a good matchup for him and he's been nearly unstoppable this season. I'm okay rolling with some guys like Raleigh and Alonso at lower odds today, with how many other guys we mixed in at +500 or better.
Good luck if you are tailing these bets! Thanks for reading and let's go!
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