Throw a Paredes! Fantasy Baseball Hitters With Improved Home Park Factors

March 21, 2025

Kevin discusses fantasy baseball hitter sleepers, draft targets who switched teams and have improved 2025 home park factors. They should hit better in their new parks.

"They say home is where the heart is, but God I love hitting in Coors Field." Wait, that's not how that Taylor Swift song goes.

It's no secret that some ballparks are better to hit in than others. One of the most exciting aspects of an MLB offseason for fantasy players is when a hitter gets a new home ballpark that should allow for them to have more offensive success.

Today, we're looking at a few hitters who got nice home ballpark upgrades going into the 2025 season. They could outperform their draft day costs, and make for nice fantasy baseball value picks in the middle and later rounds.

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Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, Houston Astros

When the news broke this offseason that the Astros were trading for Isaac Paredes, it felt like it was a deal crafted specifically by fantasy baseball players.

Following a breakout 2023 season, Paredes fell back to earth a bit in 2024, partially due to being traded midseason to the Cubs where playing half his games in Wrigley was terrible for his offensive profile. He hit 19 home runs last year, but his xHR was only 13 if he played all of his games on the North Side of Chicago.

Now hitting in Daikin Park (the artist formerly known as Minute Maid Park), Paredes is in for a big bounce-back season. We've seen right-handed hitters like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and George Springer pepper the Crawford Boxes with home runs over the years and Paredes will look to do the same this season with his extreme pulled fly-ball approach.

In 2024, he pulled the ball 51.9 percent of the time, the third most in the league behind Altuve and Rhys Hoskins. His xHR if he played all his games in Houston would've been 26, the highest among all parks.

His 2024 spray chart from last year overlaid with his new home park shows a lot of balls hit to the track that will be in the seats in 2025. Playing in this ballpark tailor-made for his approach makes Paredes a solid mid-round starting option at either corner infield spot with big power upside.

While never actually playing in Wrigley Field, the other hitter the Astros received in the Kyle Tucker trade should also be a beneficiary of being a right handed hitter in Houston. Cam Smith has been on a hitting rampage since being drafted 14th overall in last summer's MLB Draft. He had a 179 WRC+ across three levels of the minors last season (A, A+, AA) and a 243 WRC+ this spring. While it hasn't been reported yet if he'll break camp with the big league team, it's looking more and more like he'll be the Astros' starting right fielder this season.

Smith is a great dart throw at the end of your fantasy drafts, especially if he starts the season in the majors. If he starts the season in the minors, he'll be at the top of every waiver wire column the week he gets called up.

Cody Bellinger, OF, New York Yankees

Another power hitter leaving Wrigley Field for greener pastures this season is Cody Bellinger. Like Paredes, Bellinger is coming off a down year where he only hit 18 home runs but his xHR in Yankee Stadium would've been 24. The famous short porch in right field makes Yankee Stadium third in HR Park Factor for left-handed hitters.

While his pull rate is not as extreme as Paredes', Bellinger also pulls the ball fairly often (43.0 percent of the time in 2024). We shouldn't expect to see MVP Cody Bellinger again but a mid-career resurgence could be in the cards for the legacy Yankee as Bellinger will be playing for the franchise that his father, Clay, won two World Series rings with in the 90s.

His 2024 spray chart overlaid with Yankee Stadium shows that Belli may have been born to be a Yankee in more than one way. The ballpark change seems to be baked into his price going as a top 100 pick, but if your league is worried about his lackluster 2024, Bellinger is a great starting option in the OF or at 1B.

Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Let me know if you've heard this one before: former All-Star slugger coming off a rough year in a tough home ballpark signs a one-year, prove-it deal with the Dodgers. The Dodgers signing of Michael Conforto this offseason is reminiscent of their signing of Teoscar Hernandez last offseason. Hernandez had a career resurgence on the World Series champions after having one of the worst seasons of his career playing half of his games in Seattle's T-Mobile Park, which is notorious for being one of the league's worst ballparks for power hitters.

The Dodgers will look to replicate this scenario this season with Conforto. The former Mets All-Star is coming off of two subpar seasons in San Francisco (.824 OPS on Mets, .740 OPS on Giants). While some of this decrease in production can be attributed to age and battling injuries, Conforto also very clearly did not like hitting at Oracle Park. Last season, he had a .632 OPS at home compared to a .852 OPS on the road. He also hit 17 of his 20 HRs on the road.

While any ballpark would likely have been an improvement for Conforto's fantasy stock, hitting in Dodger Stadium should be a sizable improvement. Dodger Stadium ranks second in the league in HR park factor compared to Oracle Park which ranks dead last (just because Barry Bonds made hitting homers in San Francisco look easy doesn't mean it is). Now that he gets to hit in the loaded Dodger lineup in a much better home ballpark, Conforto is a good late-round fifth outfielder or bench piece for your fantasy teams.

Austin Hays, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Whenever a hitter goes to the Reds, it should always make fantasy players' ears perk up a little bit. Great American "Small" Park has been a hitter's paradise for years, ranking third in overall Park Factor and first for HR (three-year rolling average).

2024 was nothing short of a disaster season for Austin Hays. Following an injury-riddled first half of the season in Baltimore, Hays was traded to the Phillies where he struggled for playing time and hit poorly when he was in the lineup.

Over the last few seasons, Baltimore has not been a fun place for right-handed hitters. Camden Yards also used to be known as a hitter's ballpark, but before the 2022 season, they pushed their left field wall WAY back (were they sick of Gleyber Torres homering there all the time?), crushing the power numbers of right-handed batters. The move to Cincinnati should be a breath of fresh air for Hays.

In his last full season in 2023, he hit 16 homers, but his xHR at Great American would've been 28. Hays is a solid flyer at the end of drafts as he is currently slated to play every day and bat fourth in the Reds lineup behind Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz.

Tampa Bay Rays Lefties

I'm cheating a little on this last one. We talked about the right field at Yankee Stadium but what if we add the Florida heat and humidity to the flight of the balls? That's what we'll be getting in "Swamp-brenner" Field this year as the Rays will be playing their home games at Steinbrenner Field, which has identical dimensions to Yankee Stadium.

The Trop has notoriously been one of the worst places to hit, ranking second to last in overall Park Factor, so any ballpark change would likely be an upgrade for Rays hitters. But this is a BIG upgrade, especially for lefties. Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda should be the biggest beneficiaries and they all make for great late-round sleeper picks.

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