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Pranav's fantasy baseball bust candidates to avoid at ADP in 2025 drafts. His overvalued hitters from the NL include Trea Turner, Bryce Turang, CJ Abrams, more.
Welcome back RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball bust candidates and overvalued hitter ADPs from the National League. Running the same old league formats can get a little boring sometimes; a fun way to spice them up is by opting for an NL-only league. In these formats, the player pool comprises only players on National League teams.
This league format can be a lot of fun but also anxiety-inducing when you learn how high-stakes draft season can feel. There are so few players available that making a misstep may doom your whole season. To guide you in this format, I'll outline hitters in NL-only leagues who possess greater risk this season.
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CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals
In the first half of the season, CJ Abrams looked like the kind of hitter you'd lock into the top 20 of a fantasy baseball draft for the next decade. Through 81 games, Abrams slashed .280/.350/.506 with 14 home runs, 56 runs, 46 RBI, and 14 stolen bases.
He entered the 2024 season with concerns based around a low walk rate (5.2 percent in 2024) and poor exit velocity statistics (35.9 percent hard-hit rate), but the first half of 2025 saw an impressive 8 percent walk rate and 43.1 percent hard-hit rate.
But then the bottom fell out. In his next 57 games, he slashed .196/.261/.324 with six home runs, 23 runs, 19 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. He also held a 24.1 percent strikeout rate, 4.6 percent walk rate, and 36.2 percent hard-hit rate.
After an all-nighter at a casino caused Abrams to come relatively close to missing a 1 p.m. game, he was demoted to Triple-A. A demotion of that sort won't come into play going into the 2025 season, but it has the potential to flare up.
Ultimately, Abrams has now had two inconsistent seasons with effort problems and awful defense (-17 OAA). The talented 24-year-old is on relatively thin ice in the Nationals clubhouse, and his lack of consistent effort makes it difficult to fully trust him in fantasy baseball.
The five-category appeal isn't fiction, but it isn't yet a foregone conclusion. His ADP of 49 in standard leagues may seem like a somewhat decent value, but when translated to the NL-only league format, he's too expensive to take a massive gamble on.
Brice Turang, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang is really fast.
You may want to draft Brice Turang because he is really fast.
You should not draft Turang at his current ADP, even if he is really fast.
In his sophomore season, Turang slashed .254/.316/.349 with seven home runs, 72 runs, 57 RBI, and 50 stolen bases. Despite league-wide inflation of stolen base totals, he was only among three players to reach 50 steals (Elly De La Cruz and Shohei Ohtani being the other names), offering fantasy value.
The 25-year-old's 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed will hold up, and the odds are that he'll be among the league leaders in the stolen base category. However, he doesn't offer enough in other categories to justify his expensive 139 ADP (the fifth second baseman off the board in NL-only leagues).
Despite a mammoth 619 plate appearances in 2024, Turang only mustered up seven home runs. A 4.5 xHR total, 2.4 percent barrel rate, 29.7 percent hard-hit rate, and .340 xSLG all but confirm that he's unlikely to even eclipse that total.
And while it's unlikely he loses much playing time to rookies Tyler Black and Caleb Durbin, the left-handed Turang's abysmal .262 wOBA against left-handed pitchers leaves him liable to cede a few plate appearances (especially to the recently-acquired speedy right-handed Durbin).
Caleb Durbin, the @Brewers' new No. 15 prospect, stole 29 bases in 24 AFL games this year for the Fall League record! pic.twitter.com/GXOdeV3OXd
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) December 13, 2024
Unless you punted on stolen bases, Turang doesn't have enough to justify drafting him at his 137 ADP in standard leagues (fifth second baseman off the board in NL-only leagues). He's also dealing with arm fatigue, which doesn't help anything.
Bryson Stott, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
Bryson Stott is also fast (29.1 ft/sec), but that resulted in markedly fewer steals than someone like Brice Turang. In 2024, Stott slashed .245/.315/.356 with 11 home runs, 65 runs, 57 RBI, and 32 stolen bases through 148 games.
Stott's 169 ADP in standard leagues puts him only 32 picks behind the overvalued Turang, despite an 18-steal gap.
He doesn't hold much of an advantage over Turang in other areas, with 10 xHR, 3.6 percent barrel rate, 30.8 percent hard-hit rate, .363 xSLG, and a .306 xwOBA.
A bottom-of-the-order hitter on this Phillies squad, Stott shouldn't be under consideration in the mid-100s. Equally speedy options such as Nico Hoerner (189 ADP) and Maikel Garcia (210 ADP) should be available several picks after Stott.
There were 6 hitters with 94+% zone contact last season (500+ PA):
Steven Kwan: 14 HR / .133 ISO
Luis Arraez: 4 HR / .078 ISO
Nico Hoerner: 7 HR / .100 ISO
Mookie Betts: 19 HR / .202 ISO
Vinnie Pasquantino: 19 HR / .183 ISO
Sal Frelick: 2 HR / .076 ISOMost hitters who make…
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 25, 2025
Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
You can't go too wrong with Trea Turner, but you should be worried about his relatively lackluster performance in 2024. Through 121 games, he slashed .295/.338/.469 with 21 home runs, 88 runs, 62 RBI, and 19 stolen bases.
The 32-year-old's .318 xwOBA mark compared to a .349 wOBA mark is the most glaring red flag in his profile. A .264 xBA is likely the primary driver for his low xwOBA, so there could be some regression in the average category in 2025.
Hitting near the top of the lineup in a stacked Phillies lineup, the three-time All-Star should see plenty of run opportunities. However, the primary concern is the relatively low steal count in 2025. Much of Turner's fantasy appeal has been centered around his steal output (e.g., 46 steals in just 98 games in 2017).
He hasn't gotten slower, with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint speed putting him among the league's best in 2025. It is an approach issue; he spoke about his tendency to emphasize runs over steals in a recent interview, stating that he has always desired to stay on base for big bats like Bryce Harper.
While he isn't likely to fall off a cliff in 2025, certain weaknesses may become more noticeable in his 11th season. Turner's 25 ADP in standard leagues means he'll be off the board by the end of the second round in NL-only leagues. If you want to fill the shortstop position early, there's far more value in big bats like De La Cruz, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor.
Keibert Ruiz, C, Washington Nationals
With no viable alternatives, the Washington Nationals are likely to give a boatload of plate appearances to Keibert Ruiz. While he certainly played well enough in 2022 and 2023 to warrant the cheap long-term the Nationals handed him, his 2024 season wasn't up to par.
Through 127 games, Ruiz slashed .229/.260/.359 with 13 home runs, 46 runs, 57 RBI, three stolen bases, and a .268 wOBA. Of course, a .279 xwOBA and unusually low .232 BABIP prevent any stinging criticism, but any version of the 26-year-old's 2024 season looks awful.
We're likely to see only slight improvement in 2025, with ATC projecting a .243/.288/.383 line with 13 home runs, 47 runs, 57 RBI, and three stolen bases through 123 games.
With a 201 ADP in standard drafts, he is the ninth catcher off the board in 2025 NL-only drafts. If you decide to punt on the catching position, you still won't have to settle for Ruiz, considering starting players like Ivan Herrera and Joey Bart are still available after pick 201.
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