Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Farmers Insurance Open

Between Sunday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast with Matt Miller (currently posted on our Twitter page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Torrey Pines. This Tuesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Farmers Insurance Open outright betting card.

The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 21 outright winners (a 21.6% hit rate), for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week), and an aggregate ROI of 43.3%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable), betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open!

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card

Max Homa (+1350)

Still thinking about this birdie Max Homa made at the 230-yard par-3 16th.

The 16th played as the toughest hole at Torrey Pines in the final round, yielding just three birdies on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/ItudWkbjPG

— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) January 29, 2023

In a week where many of the most highly touted names come in the form of exciting new prospects with a limited history around these links, I've opted to go in a bit of a different direction to start my card. Reigning Farmers Champion Max Homa may not possess the same metronomic reliability as fellow favorites Collin Morikawa or Xander Schauffele, but he has proven that when he returns to a venue that suits his eye, Max is still more than capable of lapping a field from tee-to-green. Specifically, Homa has shown an affinity for the Tour's longest, most demanding venues, as the best five approach weeks over his last two seasons have come at the likes of Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Southern Hills, and yes, Torrey Pines.

Homa gained 8.4 shots on Approach in just three rounds on the South Course last year -- the best single mark of his entire career. He's gained strokes on approach here in each of his last six Torrey appearances, and if those iron trends continue, the rest of his game looks primed to contend for another marquee win. Fresh off of gaining 7 shots ball-striking in a T14 finish in Kapalua, Homa comes into his title defense on the back of nine consecutive top-15 finishes across three continents. He hasn't lost strokes off the tee since the Charles Schwab Challenge last May (rating out as a Top 25 Total Driver of the ball in the process), and rates out as the best long-term Poa Annua putter in the field by a wide margin -- gaining nearly 1.5 shots PER ROUND on poa greens since the start of 2020.

As enticing as the projections are on guys like Ludvig Aberg, Min Woo Lee, or Sahith Theegala, I cannot pick them in good faith over a guy who has repeatedly shown us he can rise to the occasion on some of the PGA Tour's biggest stages. He's already successfully defended a title in his home state at the 2022 Fortinet, and with the way he's currently playing, I have no doubts that Max is ready for another successful stint back in the Golden State.

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Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Big birdie.
Bigger fist pump.@Collin_Morikawa is 2 back of the lead @FarmersInsOpen. pic.twitter.com/5pvoxlOm3G

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 29, 2023

The headline name from my Monday preview article also finds his way onto our betting card, as we continue to stock up on Cal Bears with SoCal roots at the top of the board. Like his former Berkeley teammate, Morikawa also finds himself in a resurgent run of form as the Tour heads back to his home state. He's recorded finishes of 5th, 7th, 1st, and 6th over his last four worldwide starts, and began the New Year by gaining a field-best 5.25 shots on Approach in an elevated field at Kapalua.

This week, Collin returns to a venue where he should be able to further press the advantage afforded by his elite ball striking. From each of my key approach distributions (150-200 and 200+ yards), Morikawa ranks inside the top five in both proximity to the hole and strokes gained per shot. He's logged some of the best approach weeks of his career at venues that place a premium on long-iron play (Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Muirfield Village, Concession, etc.), and in three starts around Torrey Pines, Collin has gained an average of 7.32 strokes per tournament with his approach play.

Couple this unmatched ball-striking prowess with a sizable rise in overall baselines on both poa annua putting surfaces and in difficult scoring conditions, and Torrey Pines rates out as about as good of a venue as you're going to find for Collin's inevitable return to the winner's circle in a marquee event. He's already finished 3rd and 4th in much more competitive fields in La Jolla over the last three seasons. If he plays to those standards again this year, there aren't many names in the field that will be able to keep pace.

Hideki Matsuyama (+7000)

Hideki Matsuyama played a fantastic 2nd shot to set up EAGLE uphill on the par-5 14th, and Adam Scott teed it up perfectly from the booth. 🤌

📺: Round 2 live at 11 PM ET on Golf Channel & @peacock pic.twitter.com/a5rqBL5HLh

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 19, 2023

Torrey Pines isn't typically a venue where I'm eager to venture too far down the outright odds board, but when a player of Hideki Matsuyama's stature finds his way down to 70-1 in this field, I'm going to do everything I can to make room on the betting card. It's been nearly nine months since Hideki's been able to put the pieces together and contend on the biggest stage, but even within this extended lull, there have been a few facets of the game that have remained a constant for the Japanese Ace.

Hideki still rates out as one of the best long iron players in this field (top five in proximity from both 150-200 and 200+ yards), he possesses a first-class short game (7th in Bogey Avoidance, 16th in SG: ARG, 25th in Sand Saves), and he has drastically exceeded his career putting baselines on West Coast poa annua surfaces (+0.2 SG/Round over his last 36 rounds at Torrey/Pebble/Riviera).

Matsuyama has also historically raised his baselines as scoring conditions become more difficult, evidenced by his extensive records at Augusta National, Muirfield Village, TPC Sawgrass, and in numerous Major Championships. This record has also carried over to the daunting links of Torrey Pines, as Matsuyama has recorded finishes of 3rd, 9th, and 12th here since 2018. The 5.7 strokes he gained on these greens last season were the best mark recorded by his flat stick since winning the 2022 Sony Open, and in his last start at Waialae two weeks ago, Hideki gained strokes in each of the three tee-to-green categories, ranked sixth in the field in driving distance, and improved his performance every single day.

I understand the recent lack of top results has deflated the public perception of the 2021 Masters Champion, but much of this recent dip in form has come on the back of nagging neck/back injuries. I think there is still elite upside within Matsuyama's profile -- particularly if you can see the signs coming whilst he's still priced as an injured commodity. Given this recent spike in driving distance, his long-term pedigree at similar venues, and an outright price bordering on Beau Hossler/Taylor Montgomery territory, this is as good a spot as I've seen in some time to take a shot.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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