NFL Playoffs Wild Card Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

January 12, 2024

Tony analyzes the matchup of the Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions on NFL Wild Card Weekend (2023). Who's the favorite, and which team has the edge on both sides of the ball?

The Los Angeles Rams are traveling to Ford Field to take on the NFC North champion Detroit Lions in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit for the first time since being traded from his former home, where he spent 12 seasons and broke numerous records. Jared Goff gets a redemption chance against his former team, with whom he went to a Super Bowl, but was then replaced, leading to a Rams title.

Detroit finished as the NFC's number three seed with a 12-5 record, while the Rams started slow but ended hot to grab the sixth seed at 10-7. While the Lions hold the overall edge in terms of roster makeup, this game will likely go down to the wire.

Let's delve into the offenses and defenses of these two teams as they approach their playoff showdown. Who holds the edge, and what does each team need to do to secure a victory?

Vegas Lines

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.0), O/U 51.5

Rams Offense vs. Lions Defense

The Rams rank seventh in offensive DVOA this year and have the sixth-best rushing attack in football, which is different from the typical Sean McVay offense. Kyren Williams has had a tremendous season, and the emergence of Puka Nacua has made this offense unstoppable when the run game gets going. Los Angeles is very average in both areas of blocking, as they rely on the creativity and talent of their offense to create space.

Detroit's defense had a very solid year, finishing 16th in total DVOA and ranking as the best defense against the run. Aidan Hutchinson stands out as the team's elite pass rusher, but they struggle to get pressure outside of that as they rank 26th in pass rush win rate and 31st in run stuff win rate. An average pass rush and secondary will make for a successful day for Stafford, and the Lions will have to shut down the run to find consistent stops.

I would expect the Rams to come out firing and utilize their weapons in the passing game against a front they know they can handle in pass protection and a secondary that they can win on routes against. If Detroit allows Stafford to find pass wrinkles off success in the run game, the Rams offense will be in full control and will make it very tough for the Lions to get a win.

Lions Offense vs. Rams Defense

On the other end, the Lions offense ranks as the fifth-best in DVOA, as they are top-10 in running and passing. Everything they do starts with their prolific rushing duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who complement each other so well. Their offensive line is 13th in both pass block and run block win rate, and Detroit marries the play-action pass with the run perfectly to find openings in the defense. Standout rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is questionable for the game, but luckily, the Lions will have potential All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to make plays in the air.

Defensively, the Rams aren't anything too extraordinary as they rank 22nd in total DVOA. Aaron Donald had another mind-blowing season at the interior defensive line and will undoubtedly make his presence known, but the rest of the starters are going to have to step up to help slow Detroit down. The Rams are 14th in pass rush win rate and 13th in run stuff win rate, and they are going to need to find a way to slow the Lions run game down and force them into pass-obvious situations.

The Lions are going to stick with the run often, as they have all season, and they will likely have enough success with it to keep at it all game. The key for the Rams will be to find ways to make negative plays and get the Lions behind the sticks, putting them into passing situations where they can dial up the pressure and get after Goff. This one has the makings of a shootout, as both offenses are primed for big days.

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