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As we enter Week 9 of the 2023 college football season, our attention naturally shifts to the head coaches whose job security is coming under intense scrutiny. College football's competitive environment and high expectations often put coaches in the spotlight, and a sustained period of underperformance can result in significant job instability.
In this analysis, we will assess the hot seat status of five prominent college football coaches. These coaches are contending with a range of challenges, from struggling win-loss records to the rigorous standards of their programs. Their ability to navigate the remainder of the season will determine whether they will continue to lead their teams or face uncertain futures.
Now, let's dive into the midseason NCAA College Football Hot Seat Rankings for Power Five Coaches, following Week 9
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5. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M Aggies
Record at School: 44-24 / (5-3 in 2023)
With the release of the first College Football Playoff Poll, the Texas A&M Aggies are notably absent after securing their first win in over a month. They defeated a 2-6 South Carolina team with a score of 30-17 and are now just one win away from becoming bowl-eligible.
In order for Coach Fisher to head into the offseason without a substantial threat to his job security, the Aggies need a win against either Ole Miss or LSU before the season concludes. It's worth noting that Fisher has yet to win a road game against a ranked team during his tenure at Texas A&M, with a 0-8 record in such matchups, and both remaining ranked opponents are on the road.
Given the substantial $77 million buyout and the fact that he essentially needs just one win out of two games to secure his job for the following year, Fisher retains his fifth position on this list. However, if the Aggies finish the season with a record of 7-5 or worse, there will undoubtedly be discussions about the security of his job during the upcoming offseason.
4. Dave Aranda, Baylor Bears
Record at School: 23-21 / (3-5 in 2023)
Baylor's Week 8 narrow road victory over their new conference rival, Cincinnati, provided some relief for Dave Aranda's job security. However, they couldn't capitalize on this momentum in Week 9 and suffered a home loss to Iowa State. Despite the Cyclones' early-season struggles, they have managed to secure five victories in their last six games, with their only loss coming against Oklahoma.
The more pressing concern for the Bears is their precarious bowl eligibility, especially after eight games. To secure a bowl berth, they must win three of their final four games, including a challenging road game against #23 Kansas State. The other three matchups, against Houston, TCU, and West Virginia, appear to be within reach, but the Bears have yet to string together consecutive wins this season.
The Week 10 showdown against Houston holds particular intrigue, as both head coaches, Aranda and Dana Holgorsen, find themselves on the hot seat. The team that emerges victorious will keep their job prospects alive for the time being, while the losing coach is likely to face job insecurity. Winning at home against Houston is pivotal for Aranda if he intends to return for the 2024 season.
3. Justin Wilcox, California Golden Bears
Record At School: 33-41 / (3-5 in 2023)
The California Golden Bears had a prime opportunity to secure their coach's job for another season when they faced a struggling USC team at home. They came close to pulling off a major upset but fell short in a thrilling 50-49 loss, missing the two-point conversion that would have sealed the win.
Justin Wilcox managed to ease the heat on his coaching seat to some extent with this performance. However, the Golden Bears still need to win three of their last four games to become eligible for a bowl game, a feat they haven't accomplished since 2019. Achieving six wins will require upsetting either Oregon or UCLA on the road, both formidable challenges. They are currently on a three-game losing streak, all against ranked teams, and are likely to make it four when they face Oregon this week.
While competing fiercely with USC is a positive moment for Cal, failing to reach a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season is unlikely to secure a coaching job. There's a strong possibility that the Golden Bears might finish with an underwhelming 4-8 record, and this could mark the end of Wilcox's tenure, especially as they prepare for a move to the ACC.
2. Sam Pittman, Arkansas Razorbacks
Record at School: 21-23 / (2-6 in 2023)
Even during an off week, Sam Pittman, the coach of Arkansas, continues to see himself climb in these rankings. With a current record of just 2-6, the Razorbacks are at risk of missing a bowl game for the first time since the shortened 2020 season. To secure a bowl game berth, they must win all their remaining games, which include matchups against Florida, Auburn, and Missouri.
Assuming they secure a victory over FIU, there is a substantial possibility that Arkansas will conclude the season with a 3-9 record, and it's unlikely to be much better than 4-8. It's worth noting that Arkansas parted ways with Chad Morris after two consecutive winless SEC seasons, and Pittman could potentially finish the season with an 0-8 record in SEC play.
If Pittman can secure at least one SEC win this season, it might provide an opportunity for another season. However, the impending additions of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference will make things even more challenging. If they can't find a win now, the question arises as to how they will improve when the conference becomes more competitive.
1. Tom Allen, Indiana Hoosiers
Record at School: 32-46 / (2-6 in 2023)
Indiana delivered a commendable performance for the first time in a couple of weeks, putting up a strong fight in Happy Valley and only losing to the 11th-ranked team in the nation by a score of 33-24. Despite this improved showing, the Hoosiers have only made it to a bowl game twice in the past six years under Coach Allen, and they'll need to win all their remaining games to achieve that feat this year.
Although the toughest part of their schedule is now behind them, Indiana faces Wisconsin this week and then has a series of winnable matchups against Big Ten teams. Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois remain on their schedule, and none of these teams currently have more than three wins.
While Tom Allen currently holds the top position on this list, it's entirely plausible to envision him leading the Hoosiers to a late-season resurgence. They are currently winless in conference play at 0-5 and will likely need to secure at least two wins in their final four games for Allen to secure his return in 2024. Given that their two wins have come against Indiana State and a home victory in a four-overtime thriller against Akron, falling short of a 4-8 record is likely to mark the end of Allen's tenure.
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