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Saleh identifies top fantasy football WR best ball sleepers for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Which wide receivers are best ball value picks and targets?
With the start of the 2023 NFL season just weeks away now, it is time to get your best ball drafts in if you haven’t already done so. Each year, there are wide receivers in best ball drafts that are not taken very highly but end up changing the entire trajectory of teams. In 2022, some of these later WRs included Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, and Brandon Aiyuk. All typically went outside the top 30 WRs but finished inside the top 15 in Underdog.
To make the “sleeper” term as straightforward as possible, I will only be including WRs that are not currently ranked inside the 30 at the position in Underdog drafts. These are the WRs that you should be targeting when you desperately need some great value at WR in your best-ball draft.
*This will be based on Underdog scoring and Average Draft Position based on Underdog ADP on Aug 11, 2023.
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Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 61.1, WR32
With Kyler Murray recovering from a torn ACL and Colt McCoy expected to start for Arizona in week one, the team may be very bad this season. Luckily for us, players can and often do still produce in fantasy while losing games. Brown is the clear number-one receiver on this offense and will have a huge target share in 2023.
Brown showed that he can be an elite WR1 for fantasy while Hopkins was suspended. Hollywood ranked as the overall WR6 through the first six weeks of the 2022 season, ahead of Davante Adams and A.J. Brown. Despite DeAndre Hopkins being the target leader when he came back, Brown still received 8 targets in each of the two games that he and Hopkins played with McCoy. The Cardinals have the 5th most vacated targets from 2022, which means that you should expect a ton of opportunity for Brown as well as a very high ceiling.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 62.3, WR33
Lockett going over 30 spots after DK Metcalf is ridiculous considering that he has outscored Metcalf in fantasy PPG in each of the last two seasons. Seattle did take the first receiver in the 2023 draft in dynamic slot WR Jaxon-Smith Njigba. However, I do not see this taking too much away from Lockett as he’ll still face number two corners on teams and get his targets regardless.
The knock that people have on Lockett is that he is 30 years old and the most likely to be left out of this receiving corps. I am not buying this and have not seen any signs of regression whatsoever from him. I love taking Lockett in Seattle stacked best ball teams and think that he has the best price out of the three receivers.
Lockett is the textbook definition of consistency being the only player in the NFL to have at least 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last four seasons. Do not expect this streak to suddenly end this season and make sure you take advantage of the great value that you can get on Tyler Lockett this year.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 66.6, WR34
Evans is coming off his worst statistical season since 2017. While he still finished as the WR16 in Underdog format, it was still a disappointing year for him as Evans had eight games with less than 8.0 underdog points. Even with the huge quarterback dropoff in Tampa Bay going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, I still expect Evans to be much better than he was last season making him a great value in Underdog drafts.
Evans has been nothing short of dominant over the past decade as he’s looking for his 10th straight 1,000-yard season. Despite Evans having his worst season in a while, the receiver did have his most targets since 2018 and is still a huge part of the Bucs' offense.
Quarterback play is not a concern for me considering the fact that Evans has produced with Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So whether it is Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask or even a mixture of both, Evans will have no trouble putting up numbers as long as he’s getting the targets.
𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: Baker Mayfield says he’s never played with a WR on the same level as #Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, he told @SiriusXMNFL
It’s true. Mike Evans has played 9 seasons and recorded 1,000+ yards in all of them.
2014: 1,051 yards, 12 touchdowns
2015: 1,206 yards, 3… pic.twitter.com/1tWmJmIbCR— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) August 11, 2023
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 69.5, WR36
Davis is going multiple rounds later than he was in 2022 and you should be taking advantage of this. While he was very inconsistent and didn’t dominate how some thought he would, Davis put up a solid season finishing as the overall WR27 while missing two games.
The fourth-year receiver continued to show his big play ability this past season, finishing the season second in yards per reception for players with at least 50 targets on the season. Davis played in 91% of offensive snaps for Buffalo in 2022. He is expected to stay in this role considering the team did not add any real wide receiver competition.
Even with the addition of first-round Tight End Dalton Kincaid, I expect him to play more of a slot role while Diggs and Davis play on the outside. I am very bullish on Davis in Best Ball drafts because of his spiked week potential and the ability to easily stack him with Josh Allen.
GABE DAVIS SZN. 😱😱#BillsCamp | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/UAfNpekEnm
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) August 3, 2023
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 71.5, WR37
Addison can easily be the best receiver from the entire 2023 draft class. The Vikings drafted the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner with the 25th overall pick and I expect them to feature him a ton in his first season.
The only knock on Addison is that he lacks size and is not as physical as most receivers. However, we’ve seen smaller receivers still dominate purely based on their talent like Devonta Smith and Marquise Brown. Addison reminds me a lot of Smith and can similarly complement Justin Jefferson to how Smith complements AJ Brown.
It is almost impossible to get a Kirk Cousins/Jefferson stack if you don’t have the first overall pick. Addison is relatively cheap and you can easily pair him with Cousins. If you still want a Vikings stack on a team without Jefferson, Taking Cousins, Addison, and T.J. Hockenson is a lot more doable and can be very different from most Viking-led stacks.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
ADP: 75.7, WR39
Eric Bieniemy was the Offensive Coordinator for the two-time champions Kansas City Chiefs for five seasons and showed nothing short of excellence. He is now the OC for Washington and will look to shift this entire offense with Sam Howell under center.
Dotson was a great prospect coming out of Penn State, with many scouts saying he had the best hands in the class. He has a very solid and under-the-radar rookie season putting up 35 catches for 523 receiving yards and seven trips to the endzone in just 12 games. He has a ridiculous touchdown upside as he scored on 20% of his catches during his first year. This may seem costly for a number two receiver with an unproven QB, but it is well worth it given his ability to score TDs and the lack of targets on the team behind Terry McLaurin.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 82.8, WR41
Baltimore took Flowers with the 22nd overall pick and as the third receiver of the board ahead of Jordan Addison. Other than size, Flowers has all the tools to dominate early on. With the team's new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken now at the helm and him emphasizing the team going more vertical and throwing the ball a ton, Flowers is in a great spot to produce immediately with Lamar Jackson.
I expect the team to open the season with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. playing on the outside and Flowers playing the slot in three-wide receiver sets. Flowers has the quickness and explosiveness to become one of Jackson’s go-to guys very early on. With Bateman still recovering from his injury and Beckham playing his first game in almost two years, Flowers is in the best position to give consistent production for this offense.
Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 87.2, WR44
After all the drama that he had with the Jets, Cleveland acquired Elijah Moore who should step in as the team’s number two receiver immediately. The talent of Moore shouldn’t be a question as we’ve seen him dominate in his rookie season with mediocre to bad QB play. Over the last six weeks before his injury in 2021, Moore was the overall WR2 behind only Justin Jefferson.
With Deshaun Watson having a full off-season with the team and getting back into rhythm, the team’s offense can be very good and Moore will be a huge part of that. If you are betting on Watson in drafts, then you should be aggressively targeting Moore each and every time.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 109.4, WR51
While Boyd has a relatively low ceiling, he does have spiked weeks that make him valuable in best ball. I like betting on elite offenses and Boyd is locked in as the pure slot receiver in one of the league's most dominant offenses.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are undoubtedly the top two targets for Cincinnati, but Boyd has averaged about 63 catches for 795 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the last two seasons. He is often the safety blanket for Burrow and will once again be an integral part of the Bengals’ offense.
Chase and Higgins are very expensive in drafts and there are a ton of people trying to stack both with Burrow. However, pairing one of those two receivers with Boyd and Burrow is much more obtainable and can still give you a great season stack.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
ADP: 113.6, WR53
Collins is my favorite to be the number one for C.J. Stroud and lead the team in targets. Beat writers for the Texans have praised the third-year receiver and the connection that he has had with Stroud.
The 6-foot-4 receiver out of Michigan doesn’t have an outrageously high ceiling being in an offense that will consistently try to establish a run game, but he has a very solid floor as the team's number one receiver. Collins sustained some injuries that ended his season but earned at least seven targets in each of his last four games in 2022. This is a great value for someone who can very well be the top target in this Houston offense. I love taking him as my 5th or 6th receiver and stacking him late with Stroud at a very good price.
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 144.6, WR64
While Adam Thielen will most likely be the number one target to start the season, Mingo can easily become Bryce Young's go-to guy as the season progresses. Carolina was very aggressive in taking Mingo with the 39th overall pick and the team has praised his abilities.
The former Ole Miss product did not produce much in college but this had more to do with the teams' playstyle and poor QB play, not his talent. Mingo has great big play ability and is actually a very similar prospect to what fellow Ole Miss receiver A.J. Brown was coming into the draft.
I like betting on the young and talented receiver that the team took at the start of the second round to pair with their franchise quarterback. Thielen is a great value as well but is almost 33 years old and clearly regressing, along with D.J. Chark who has not been able to stay on the field whatsoever. As the WR64, Mingo gives you a ton of upside and can be the guy to pair with Bryce Young on teams.
Darius Slayton, New York Giants
ADP: 199.1, WR85
Slayton has been my favorite last-round pick in drafts by far. He is expected to be locked into the starting outside receiver role along with Isiah Hodgins, and Paris Campbell/Jaylin Hyatt in the slot.
Slayton offers a sustainable floor, especially as a last-round pick where you aren’t counting on him to do too much. Slayton has more chemistry with Jones than any other receiver threat entering this season, earning the second most targets on the team in 2022 just behind Saquon Barkley despite only being healthy for 13 games.
Slayton started the 2022 season off very slow and hurt, he then got healthy and started seeing over 90% of offensive snaps in the second half of the year and into the playoffs. This is very little risk with a pick this late and Slayton can be the number one receiver for the Giants. I think he’s absolutely worth a dart throw especially in stacks with Daniel Jones or for some week 17 correlation.
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