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Joey's fantasy football targets and avoids for 2025 based on game scripts. His game-script winners and losers for preseason fantasy drafts, including Bo Nix.
In every NFL game, one team goes in front and the other goes behind. The events following that initial lead change determine which team wins and which team loses. However, it also determines the methods by which each team will attempt to win the game.
The team that takes the lead will often try to preserve the lead by running the ball and relying on its defense. Compare that to the team that goes behind, which will have to pass the ball to score more quickly. This pattern is known as a game script, and we can use it to find value in certain players in fantasy football.
For instance, wide receivers on teams with bad defenses often benefit from positive game scripts. An example of this last season was Brian Thomas Jr. The Jaguars defense was so bad that the offense was forced to throw the ball a ton, giving the talented rookie countless opportunities to make plays. So, let's look at a handful of players who greatly benefit or are hurt by their potential game scripts.
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Fantasy Football Game Script Winners
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Unsurprisingly, Burrow comes in as a clear game-script winner for the second straight year. Forced to air it out due to the Bengals' 28th-ranked defense in 2024, the former LSU Tiger put up gaudy numbers. Burrow led all quarterbacks with 652 pass attempts and completed a whopping 70.6% of them for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
The NFL's most accurate QB since 2021:
Joe Burrow 🎯 pic.twitter.com/ui7nVAEzRq
— PFF (@PFF) July 3, 2025
The good news for Burrow is that the Bengals defense will likely continue to be bad in the near future. First-round pass-rusher Shemar Stewart finally signed his contract, but star Trey Hendrickson is not practicing due to his desire for a long-term deal, which poses a major problem. Hendrickson has made the Pro Bowl in four straight years and racked up 17.5 sacks in each of the last two seasons.
Without being able to pressure the quarterback, Cincinnati's awful secondary will get picked apart week after week. In any case, Burrow will be passing the ball early and often in 2025, and with star receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both returning on long-term deals, he'll be poised to repeat his outstanding 2024 campaign.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Walker is a player who carries significant risk, but that risk also comes with a potentially massive reward. There are questions about his durability, and for good reason. Walker missed six games last season, his third straight year missing at least two games, and his backup, Zach Charbonnet, appeared to be the better player last season. Charbonnet averaged 4.2 yards per carry compared to Walker's 3.7.
But don't count Walker out just yet. He's still 24 years old, and the Seahawks have made it known that they plan to pound the rock in 2025. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak schemed up a great running scheme for Alvin Kamara last season in New Orleans, and Walker could be the next beneficiary. With his slippery running and home run speed, Walker is a great fit for Kubiak's zone blocking.
The Seahawks defense is also steadily improving. Versatile second-round defensive back Nick Emmanwori will join a sensational secondary featuring the long and athletic Riq Woolen and the hard-nosed Devon Witherspoon. So, Seattle might be able to hold onto leads and pound the rock in 2025, and if Walker can stay healthy, an increased workload could be in the cards.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Ridley's big-play ability helped him reach 1,000 yards in 2024, but he struggled in fantasy due to a lack of catchable targets. With Will Levis throwing him passes, Ridley was unable to attain the volume of a traditional No. 1 wide receiver, catching just 64 passes and scoring only four touchdowns. The Titans spent the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on quarterback Cam Ward to ensure that won't happen again.
Ward's cannon arm and elusive running style make him a big play waiting to happen. But unlike Levis, he also has poise and accuracy, meaning that Ridley won't just receive a ton of targets; the majority of them will be catchable. So, the veteran wideout is due for an uptick in volume.
But wait, there's more! The Titans have the No. 1 strength of schedule for wide receivers, according to FantasyPros, so Ridley will have a chance to dominate against weaker matchups. The team's defense, while not as terrible on paper as it was in 2024, is still below average. The offense will have to make up for it by slinging the rock. Ridley is a must-draft in 2025 as a potential stud you can find in the middle rounds.
Fantasy Football Game Script Losers
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Nix outperformed expectations and had a very good rookie year, steadily improving as the year went on and leading the Broncos to the playoffs. He completed over 66% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, and 12 interceptions, and showed the ability to run Sean Payton's complex offense.
Bo Nix went on a real adventure on this one. He slips out of a Bud Dupree DDT attempt, escapes another pressure, runs away from two defenders, and taunts 0 for not being able to catch him while down by 20 points pic.twitter.com/RrDvRw2SPz
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 14, 2024
However, there were a couple of factors in Nix's favor last season that will not be the case again this year. Despite having one of the league's best offensive lines, the team struggled mightily to run the ball due to poor running back play. As a result, Payton began calling more checkdowns and screens, which were easy completions that boosted Nix's efficiency.
And after signing free agent J.K. Dobbins and drafting RJ Harvey, the Broncos running back room should be much improved. This means we can reasonably expect Nix's pass attempts to decrease by a fair amount. Worse, the Broncos significantly upgraded a defense that was already among the league's best.
Rookie nickel Jahdae Barron joins elite corner duo Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss in the secondary, and the front seven featuring Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen remains intact. All this means that Nix won't have as many chances to produce as he did last season.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard broke out in a big way in 2024. He established himself as the clear RB1 in Carolina and ran for over 1,100 yards on an efficient 4.8 yards per carry. As a result, Hubbard earned himself a four-year contract extension and is now entrenched as the Panthers' top running back.
Hubbard's great performance may convince you that he's an easy pick to make in fantasy football, but that isn't necessarily the case. The Panthers leaned on him a lot last season, but the addition of free-agent running back Rico Dowdle means they won't have to do so anymore. Dowdle isn't a game-changer, but he is certainly good enough to vulture away some carries from Hubbard.
The Panthers also added WR Tetairoa McMillan in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft to give QB Bryce Young a new weapon, who already looked like a much better player in the second half of 2024. And with the Panthers defense still looking like a subpar unit, the team will have to lean on the pass. In short, you can't rely on Hubbard to post similar production in 2025 because so much has changed.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Flowers stayed healthy for all 17 games, racked up over 1,000 receiving yards, and made his first career Pro Bowl. Going into his third season, he remains the top wideout on the Ravens and will continue to benefit from the MVP-level quarterback play of Lamar Jackson. But all of that has not translated to success in fantasy football.
Zay Flowers finished as the 32nd WR last season despite Lamar throwing for a career high 4200 yards & 41 TDs.
And now Flowers has similar target competition + DeAndre Hopkins was added.
It's difficult to see Flowers being someone you need in fantasy...
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) August 1, 2025
Despite catching over 70 passes in each of his first two seasons, Flowers has scored just nine touchdowns in 35 career regular-season games. Part of this comes from his style of play. Flowers is a smaller receiver who isn't elite at jump balls or route running, so he isn't as impactful in the red zone.
But the bigger issue is the team's identity itself. The Ravens are a run-first team, and with Derrick Henry and Jackson in the backfield, that will continue to be the case. That often results in Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and even Mark Andrews not producing due to Baltimore's lack of pass attempts. Expecting Flowers to break out despite a limited opportunity is just wishful thinking.
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