5 Wide Receiver Draft Sleepers - Fantasy Football ADP Value Picks Include Jahan Dotson, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, more

August 29, 2023

Phil identifies five fantasy football wide receiver sleepers for 2023 fantasy football drafts. These WR sleeper picks are ADP values who could break out.

We have entered the month of August while continuing our steady progression toward the highly-anticipated 2023 regular season. The onset of training camps has signaled the rapid approach of Week 1 matchups, while also intensifying our anticipation of those season openers – particularly for those of you who have been participating in drafts and managing your existing rosters throughout the offseason.

The team at RotoBaller is delivering continual news updates from all 32 training camps along with detailed analysis of various players and repeated updates to our rankings in every format. This ongoing collection of resources will continue as we advance toward Week 1 and will bolster your efforts to build league-winning rosters.

We are also providing a series of articles that will examine players that you should target for your teams, along with others that should be avoided at their current draft positions. That includes this article, which will focus on five wide receivers who have become enticing options at their current ADPs in FFPC and NFFC leagues. We will continue to provide news, data-fueled analysis, and refreshed rankings which will supply your pathway to effective draft preparations and roster management.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Soooo, who started Brandon Aiyuk today? 👀pic.twitter.com/47dcaeSYFQ

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 16, 2022

Brandon Aiyuk has not been overlooked during the offseason as his outlook for 2023  has become a popular topic, However, he remains undervalued at his ADP in FFPC and NFFC leagues amid the ongoing debate surrounding his potential to build upon the career-best numbers that he assembled in 2022.

His immense talent has blended favorably with his prospects of generating yardage and fantasy points while performing his role in San Francisco’s offense. His continued development has also accelerated his emergence as a dynamic weapon and could also propel him to outputs that exceed the results that he delivered last season.

Greg Papa and Tim Ryan were on another level with their call of Brandon Aiyuk's 2nd touchdown on Sunday 😂 pic.twitter.com/53fYAB2zzX

— KNBR (@KNBR) October 17, 2022

Aiyuk operated with a career-high 91% snap share during 2022, which placed him ninth among all wide receivers. He also collected a career-best 114 targets (6.7 per game), while eclipsing his previous highs in red zone targets (15), routes run (398), air yards (1,105), yards before catch (629), receiving yards (1,015/59.7 per game), and receptions (78/4.6 per game), leading the 49ers in each of those categories. He also established career highs in targets per route run (29.6%), yards per route run (2.55), yards after catch (388), and touchdowns (eight), while averaging 13.4 points per game.

The optimism that has materialized in recent months has been offset by concern that competing for targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, will impede Aiyuk from accumulating the numbers that he could otherwise provide in a different environment. However, there is also a rationale for believing that Aiyuk will generate the most prolific numbers of his career even though touches will be shared among the 49ers’ cluster of dynamic weapons.

Samuel assembled the best numbers of his career during 2021 but was unable to replicate those results last season. Samuel was sidelined during four matchups and experienced a decline in his per-game averages in targets (7.6/7.2), receptions (4.8/4.3), receiving yards (87.8/48.6), and rushing yards (22.8/17.8) when compared to his averages in 2021. He also failed to match his previous results in yards per target (11.6/6.7), yards per reception (18.2/11.3), yards per route run (3.03/2.22), and aDOT (8.4/4.3). Samuel can rebound statistically if he evades injuries, although that does not necessarily preclude Aiyuk from outperforming his draft position.

Kittle finished 2022 with an 18.9% target share after exceeding a 22% share for four consecutive seasons (2018-2021). He also paced the 49ers in touchdowns (11) and was second among tight ends in yards per route run (2.44) during 2022. He remains capable of delivering highly productive outings, although his numbers should remain inconsistent again this season.

McCaffrey’s extensive involvement as a pass catcher was sustained following his trade from Carolina to San Francisco, as he secured a 22.3% target share, led all backs in receiving yards (440/44 per game), and was third in both targets per route run (35.4%) and yards per route run (2.47) from Weeks 8-18. However, McCaffrey’s presence did not deter Aiyuk from leading the 49ers in target share (23.0%), receptions (46/4.6 per game), and receiving yards (613/61.3 per game), during those contests.

The ⭐️ of 49ers camp so far. Brandon Aiyuk pic.twitter.com/n6hx3CXLeG

— 95.7 The Game (@957thegame) July 31, 2023

🔥 WR Brandon Aiyuk was the best player on Offense yesterday again, no surprise there. #49ers #FTTB @THE2ERA #ASU pic.twitter.com/rH8U7AMREZ

— 49er_Edits (@49er_edits) July 27, 2023

Aiyuk’s exceptional abilities as a route-runner, his potential to ignite for significant yardage, and his chance to operate in an attack that is designed by Shanahan should supersede any uneasiness regarding his potential to ascend into a higher tier. He can deliver WR2 production, that would exceed the expectations of his current ADPs in FFPC's best ball leagues (69/WR30), and NFFC leagues (67/WR32).

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders 

Jahan Dotson has been included in the select group of wide receivers that I have targeted for the majority of my rosters throughout the offseason, and a favorable combination of talent and opportunity has paved a path for him to outperform his Round 8 ADPs in NFFC drafts (86/WR389) and FFPC best ball drafts (90/WR39).

Dotson was one of six wide receivers who were selected in Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft when Washington seized him with the 16th overall pick. This supplied an immediate opportunity for the fusion of his speed, athleticism, and route running acumen to launch him into a sizable role within the Commanders’ aerial attack.

WHAT A DEBUT FOR JAHAN DOTSON
pic.twitter.com/Mv6ZEDmSKS

— PFF (@PFF) September 11, 2022

His rookie season was impacted by a lingering hamstring issue, which sidelined him during five matchups while limiting his production from Weeks 5-12. However, he still assembled promising results when he was able to function without the impediment of injury.

I'm feeling very wrong on my expectations for Jahan Dotson.

He's easily been the most impressive rookie wideout through the preseason and now Week 1. Legit NFL suddenness, ball skills and route-running all showing up early. pic.twitter.com/4kjSFrjFkh

— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 12, 2022

Dotson delivered encouraging results during his first two contests, as he led the Commanders in snap share (93.4%) entering Week 3. He also soared to third overall in routes run (92), tied for second in touchdowns (three), and averaged five targets/3.5 receptions/50 yards per game.

The troublesome hamstring emerged in Week 4, which brought a temporary halt to his production. He did not resurface until Week 10 and was limited to just 38 routes, four targets, two receptions, and 27 receiving yards from Weeks 10-12. However, Dotson regained his health while leading Washington in targets (35/7.0 per game), targets per route run (29.9%), and air yards (471) from Weeks 13-18.

What a catch from Jahan Dotson 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/e3YHi9MtfG

— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) December 19, 2022

He also paced the Commanders in targets (26/6.5 per game), targets per route run (22.2%), receptions (16/4.0 per game), receiving yards (290/72.5 per game), air yards (382), and yards per route run (2.48) from Weeks 15-18. That includes his numbers during Washington’s season finale when Sam Howell was spearheading the team's offense. Dotson secured a 22.2% target share during that outing while collecting three of his four targets, generating 72 yards, and leading the Commanders in yards per route run (3.27), and aDOT (14.3).

Dotson returns for his second year with the chance to build upon his late-season momentum while operating with Howell or Jacoby Brissett under center. Dotson should also benefit from the team’s transition into a reconstructed offense that will be concocted by Eric Bieniemy.

Terry McLaurin should retain his role as Washington’s WR1. However, Dotson will also remain highly involved while operating as the Commanders’ WR2. He is also capable of vaulting into high-end WR3 territory for fantasy managers, even though he is only being drafted as a WR4. This elevates him among the most undervalued wide receivers during the middle rounds while presenting you with an opportunity to capitalize on his current ADP.

Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns 

It was easy to envision Elijah Moore quickly ascending into an integral role with the Jets after he became the sixth wide receiver to be selected during the 2021 NFL Draft. He entered the NFL with the promise of versatility and play-making ability with a mixture of quickness and purpose infused into every route. This made him a compelling option prior to his rookie season, and he later provided a glimpse of his capabilities during an encouraging three-game sequence in 2021.

Moore soared to WR4 from Weeks 11-13 that year, while securing a 33% target share and attaining a league-high 51.8% air yards share. A quad issue abruptly ended his season, but his ADP rose to Round 6 during the 2022 draft season in anticipation of favorable numbers during his second year.

Unfortunately, a catastrophic season ensued as a combination of substandard play at quarterback, and a degenerating relationship between Moore and the Jets, led to infinitesimal numbers. Moore averaged 3.3 targets/1.8 receptions/21.2 yards per game from Weeks 5-18, including a mind-boggling matchup in Week 6 when Moore failed to receive a target while operating with a 58% snap share.

Of all the eye-popping stats/factoids today, this one is hard to understand:

Elijah Moore: 0 targets. #Jets

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 17, 2022

However, Moore has now been presented with an opportunity to resuscitate his career following the trade that sent him to Cleveland. He will join an offense that ranked 24th in pass play percentage (52.3%) during 2022, but it would behoove Kevin Stefanski to capitalize on Deshaun Watson's strengths by effectively integrating those abilities into his strategic approach. Stefanski was named the Associated Press Coach Of The Year in 2020 but will contend with increasing pressure after the Browns failed to qualify for the postseason in 2021-2022.

Just been thinking about all of the times Zach Wilson badly missed or inexplicably ignored an egregiously wide open Elijah Moore

And how that probably doesn’t happen again this year with an elite QB pic.twitter.com/DJ1L2UN81T

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 29, 2023

Watson should also perform more effectively after last year’s numbers declined in comparison to the results from his previous season (2020). This included passer rating (112.4/79.1), completion percentage (70.2%/58.2%), yards per game (301.4/183.7), yards per attempt (8.9/6.5), and air yards per attempt (9.5/6.0),

Amari Cooper should operate as Watson's most targeted weapon after he attained his highest target share since 2018 (26.2%) during his first season with the Browns. He was also eighth in air yards (1,606), 11th in receiving yards (1,160/68.2 per game), and finished inside the top 20 in targets per route run (26%) and yards per route run (2.29).

However, Cooper's status as his team’s WR1 is more precarious than several other receivers with similar ADPs. His per-game averages in targets (8.5/6.5), receiving yards (72/61.3), and receptions (5.2/3.5) with Jacoby Brissett under center (Weeks 1-12) all decreased when compared to his averages while Watson was guiding Cleveland's attack (Weeks 13-18). 

Deshaun Watson ——> Elijah Moore in red zone #Browns pic.twitter.com/fUf1FyvEmH

— Ashley Bastock (@AshleyBastock42) July 27, 2023

While that was a byproduct of Watson’s protracted absence, it is conceivable that Moore’s explosiveness and versatility could elevate his target share to a percentage that approaches or exceeds Cooper’s. A revitalized Moore should minimally function as the Browns’ WR2 and could provide fantasy managers with high-end WR3 production. That would reward anyone who selects him near his current ADPs in NFFC leagues (106/WR46), and FFPC best ball drafts (100/WR42). 

Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs 

Even though the offseason departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman Jr. have extricated both wide receivers from Kansas City’s depth chart, the prospective target distribution among the Chiefs’ remaining arsenal of receivers has been difficult to predict. The situation also remains unclear after Kadarius Toney sustained a torn meniscus during Kansas City's first day of training camp.

The Patrick Mahomes and Skyy Moore connection keeps growing 📈

(🎥via @Chiefs) pic.twitter.com/hT4vpPyfv2

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) July 25, 2023

Toney’s absence has created an opportunity for one of Kansas City's wide receivers to function as a reliable second option behind Travis Kelce. Skyy Moore's ability to operate from the slot could also launch him into a role that replicates JuJu Smith-Schuster's responsibilities last season when Smith-Schuster lined up inside on 47.3% of his routes. Rookie Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James, Justyn Ross, and Justin Watson could all enter into the equation as training camp continues, but Moore's development as a route-runner and his potential for accumulating yardage after the catch have positioned him as the primary beneficiary of increased targets during Toney's latest absence.

Moore's prospects of elevating within Kansas City's depth chart have ignited a surge of interest from fantasy managers during the draft process, as his ADP has climbed from Round 12 (141/WR54 ) to Round 10 (119/WR48) since late June in FFPC leagues, along with a similar rise in NFFC leagues (141/WR55), (111/WR48).

How many receiving yards will Skyy Moore have this season? pic.twitter.com/c5mkkqw6UR

— Patrick Allen (@RPatrickAllen) July 31, 2023

Even though the escalating ADPs have altered the cost of securing Moore, he remains undervalued, which could be a consequence of lingering disappointment surrounding his numbers during 2022. He was relegated to a 29% snap share last season while failing to exceed a 30% share in 10 different matchups. He was also limited to just 22 receptions (1.4 per game), and 250 receiving yards (15.6 per game).

He operated from the slot on 54% of his routes but was a distant fifth among Kansas City’s wide receivers with 143 routes run. However, there is a legitimate reason for optimism that Moore will be entrusted with a more substantial role. General manager Brett Veach was incentivized to select Moore with the 54th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, following a collegiate career in which he eclipsed 800+ yards as a true freshman at Western Michigan, then later collected 95 receptions and generated 1,292 yards during his final season as a Bronco (2021). He also received the highest receiving grade from PFF among all wide receivers who played in a Group of Five Conference.

Skyy Moore getting separation on a vertical route. George Pickens could never pic.twitter.com/lZCfSK5Vxw

— FantasyScape Podcast (@FantasyScape_) August 4, 2023

Moore will now operate with a full year of development in Reid’s potent offense and appears to be the most viable candidate to collect targets while functioning from the slot. His prospects of generating numbers that surpass the expectations of his ADP should compel you to prioritize him when your drafts enter the double-digit rounds.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans 

A convergence of favorable factors has positioned Nico Collins to provide value at his Round 13 ADPs. He became the 14th wide receiver to be selected during the 2021 NFL Draft when Houston secured him in Round 3, but he has yet to establish his viability as a reliable resource for fantasy managers as he enters his third year. Collins has been limited to averages of 5.3 targets, 2.9 receptions, and 38.6 yards per game during his first two seasons, although those averages improved to a team-high nine targets/4.8 receptions/44 yards during his final four games in 2022.

Collins also missed three matchups due to a shoulder issue during his rookie year, then was sidelined for seven games last season (foot/groin). However, he has also accumulated the most targets (126), receptions (70), receiving yards (927), and air yards (1,381) among all wide receivers who are returning to Houston’s roster, following the departure of Brandin Cooks. The 6'4", 215-pound Collins also possesses the size and speed to function as the Texans' most targeted vertical weapon.

Do you want to draft a player in Round 11+ that

🔥has a 90th percentile Speed Score/95th percentile catch radius
🔥had the 2nd best contested catch rate in the NFL in 2022
🔥gets a brand new QB to throw him bombs downfield

Go draft Nico Collinspic.twitter.com/tHgwFDkopb

— Sam Wagman (@swagman95) July 11, 2023

To be clear, this is not a suggestion that Collins is firmly affixed atop Houston’s depth chart, as the Texans' offense is undergoing a significant transformation. DeMeco Ryans begins his first year as the team's head coach and Bobby Slowik has been entrusted with responsibilities as offensive coordinator after both coaches worked together in San Francisco for the last six seasons.

The Texans also selected Tank Dell (Round 3) and Xavier Hutchinson (Round 6) during the NFL draft, while also infusing 31-year-old Robert Woods and former Cowboy Noah Brown into the equation. Former second-round selection John Metchie has also surfaced in training camp after missing the 2022 regular season (leukemia treatment) and should seize a role in the reshaped aerial attack.

The big winner from the #Texans adding CJ Stroud is Nico Collins

Best QB of his football career. Someone with the pinpoint accuracy to throw Nico open and take advantage of his catch radius+contested catch skills

One of my guys from the 21’ class and this is huge for his dvlpmt pic.twitter.com/QQK5CdkmvL

— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) April 28, 2023

Collins should still emerge from training camp with responsibilities as the Texans' downfield weapon, and the arrival of C.J. Stroud has also supplied Collins with the most enticing opportunity of his career. Davis Mills was guiding Houston’s offense in eight of Collins’ matchups in 2022, while Collins operated with Kyle Allen during the other two contests. However, the Texans’ selection of Stroud with the second overall pick during last April’s draft will accelerate Stroud's rise into the starting role.

Here’s the play courtesy of the Texans..

C.J Stroud over the top to Nico Collins.

(On Derek Stingley Jr. too 👀)pic.twitter.com/KpyQxJbrme https://t.co/IUUgHE83vp

— Chancellor Johnson (@ChancellorTV) July 26, 2023

Stroud attained a deep grade of 94.2  in 2022, along with a big-time throw rate of 7.0% from PFF, which involves passes of high difficulty and value. Collins could easily eclipse his previous career highs if he can establish and sustain a connection with Stroud. That would also propel him to numbers that are beneficial to fantasy managers, which should incentivize you to target Collins at his Round 13 ADPs in FFPC best ball drafts (147/WR56), and NFFC drafts (145/WR60).

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