2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Brandon Aiyuk

Phil Clark's fantasy football analysis for wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk. Is this NFL fourth-year receiver back a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate?

We have advanced rapidly through the offseason while moving beyond free agency, the NFL Draft, OTAs, and mandatory mini-camps. The arrival of July signals an imminent launch of training camps, which will intensify interest in strategizing upcoming drafts and building rosters in redraft leagues, This will also supply an additional incentive for many of you to modify your dynasty rosters, as you absorb an avalanche of news from the various camps once they have begun.

Your ongoing analysis as you plan drafts and manage your teams includes the identification of players who could exceed expectations while becoming valuable roster resources this season. The term ‘breakout’ has also garnered frequent use within the fantasy community, which has fueled the emergence of multiple definitions surrounding what constitutes a breakout player.

If your interpretation of a breakout involves the ability to outperform expectations, then Brandon Aiyuk has already accomplished this with the performance that he delivered last season. However, Aiyuk's numbers during 2022 do not necessarily solidify breakout status according to every definition that has emerged in recent years. It is also reasonable to believe that his continual development, exceptional talent, and opportunities to secure separation in Kyle Shanahan's offense have yet to propel Aiyuk to his most prolific season.

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Brandon Aiyuk's Promising Rookie Season 

Aiyuk became the sixth member of his 2020 rookie class to be selected during the NFL Draft when San Francisco seized him with the 25th overall pick. The 49ers traded three picks for the opportunity to secure the promising newcomer, who was immediately infused into a depth chart that included Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, Richie James, Jalen Hurd, and Dante Pettis.

Instant playmaker for the @49ers. 🙌

Brandon Aiyuk's 2020 rookie highlights! @THE2ERA pic.twitter.com/wleLfVaf7a

— NFL (@NFL) April 7, 2021

Aiyuk contended with a hamstring injury at the onset of his first season. However, he gathered a 24.8% target share from Weeks 3-15, while averaging 9.1 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 71.2 yards per game during that span. He also soared to a league-high average of 12.4 targets per game from Weeks 8-15 and was third behind only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs with a 31.0% target share during those matchups.

He also led the 49ers in targets (62), receptions (39/7.8 per game), and receiving yards (453/90.6 per game) during that sequence. Recurring hamstring issues and a foot injury limited Samuel to a career-low seven games, while the combination of a sprained knee and a foot fracture kept George Kittle sidelined during eight matchups that season.

Aiyuk also missed four games during the year (hamstring/ankle/COVID-19), but still finished with a team-high 96 targets (8.0 per game). He also paced the 49ers in red zone targets (14), receptions (60/5.0 per game), receiving yards (748/62.3 per game), and air yards (898).

A Disappointing Start In 2021  

Aiyuk’s encouraging numbers as a rookie ignited a rise in his ADP during the 2021 draft season  (63/WR26), although anyone who targeted him at his draft position immediately dealt with frustration at the onset of the regular season. Aiyuk was jettisoned to Shanahan’s doghouse, as he failed to register a target in Week 1, was limited to a minuscule 8.7% target share, and only averaged 2.7 targets/1.8 receptions/19.2 yards per game during the 49ers’ first six games.

Aiyuk later resuscitated his second season as his target share rose to 22.2% during his final 11 games. His averages improved to 6.2 targets/4.3 receptions/66.4 yards per game, while his expanded role also launched him to ninth in yardage (730). He also tied for third with 15 receptions of 20+ yards and was seventh in yards after catch (326).

Brandon Aiyuk is officially out of the doghouse now, right?#49ers #Random49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/ALrD73pvG3

— #Random49ers (@Random49ers) December 17, 2021

Aiyuk’s ascending numbers also coincided with the increased deployment of Samuel as a rusher. Samuel had carried six times from Weeks 1-9, but Shanahan utilized him more frequently after injuries to Raheem Mostert, and Elijah Mitchell had depleted San Francisco's backfield. Jeff Wilson Jr. was also reemerging from his own knee issue that had sidelined him from Weeks 1-9.

Establishing Career Highs In 2022  

Brandon Aiyuk’s routes are art 😪
pic.twitter.com/OBSDQDW21r

— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) June 14, 2023

 

Aiyuk finished 12th at his position in offensive snaps (950) during 2022 while operating from the slot on 55.7% of his routes. He also secured career highs in a collection of categories – including targets (114/6.7 per game), red zone targets (15), and receptions (78/4.6 per game). Aiyuk also surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career (1,015/59.7 per game), while eclipsing 80+ during six different contests.

Aiyuk also exceeded his previous career bests in routes run (398), air yards (1,105), yards before catch (627), yards after catch (388), aDOT (9.9), and touchdowns (eight), while finishing 11th in receptions of 20+, and targets per route run (28.6%), and 12th in yards per route run (2.55).

Aiyuk was also WR15 in PPR leagues, while also finishing ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Over Average) and 19th among wide receivers with a PFF grade of 78.7.

Competition For Touches 

Soooo, who started Brandon Aiyuk today? 👀pic.twitter.com/47dcaeSYFQ

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 16, 2022

Aiyuk’s unquestioned ability to secure separation and his potential to erupt for big plays are desirable attributes that become even more enticing in a schematic approach that is designed by Shanahan. That fusion of factors would normally propel a receiver who possesses Aiyuk's exceptional talent to continue his trajectory toward high-end WR2 numbers that could easily ascend into WR1 territory. However, Aiyuk's efforts are contained within the cluster of dynamic weaponry that operate in San Francisco's potent offense. 

That includes Deebo Samuel whose importance to the 49er attack reached its pinnacle when he assembled his career-best production in 2021. His versatility enabled him to thrive as both a receiver and rusher, and his proficiency while operating as a multi-purpose resource launched him to third overall with an average of 21.2 points per game in PPR leagues.

He also finished fifth in receiving yards (1,405/87.8 per game), and second in both yards after catch (768), and yards per route run (3.03), while Samuel’s effectiveness as a runner also vaulted him to the league lead among wide receivers in attempts (59/7.0 per game), rushing yardage (365/30.4 per game), and rushing touchdowns (eight).

This also incentivized fantasy managers to select him as a WR1 during the 2022 draft process (ADP22/WR7). However, he failed to replicate the results that he attained in 2021, as his point-per-game average decreased to 13.0 – which placed him 27th overall.

Samuel missed four games during the regular season (hamstring/knee/ankle) and experienced a drop in receiving yards (1,405/632), air yards (1,068/419), and yards before catch (637/139). His per-game averages in targets (7.6/7.2), receptions (4.8/4.3), and receiving yards (87.8/48.6) also declined when contrasted with his averages in 2021, as did his yards per target (11.6/6.7), yards per reception (18.2/11.3), yards per route run (3.03/2.22), and aDOT (8.4/4.3),

He also averaged 42.9 yards per game from Weeks 5-18 before generating his highest yardage total of the year during the 49ers' Week 19 Wild Card matchup (133). Samuel then averaged 39 per game during San Francisco’s two remaining postseason matchups. Samuel will retain his sizable role in the offense while commandeering a respectable percentage of touches if he can avoid any lingering injuries.

George Kittle’s 18.9% target share last season was his lowest since 2017, as his share eclipsed 22% during each of his four previous years (22.7/24.1/28.2/26.5). Kittle is also second among all tight ends with 4,739 yards since 2018 (70.7 per game) and is also third in receptions (352/5.3 per game) during that span.

Kittle also led San Francisco with 11 touchdowns last season, and was second behind Aiyuk in receptions (60/4.0 per game), receiving yards (765/51 per game), and yards before catch (383). He was also second at his position in yards per route run (2.44) and also finished third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Over Average). Kittle’s week-to-week output remains destined to fluctuate during the year but his highly-productive weeks can affect Aiyuk.

Christian McCaffrey’s prowess as a dynamic pass-catching presence is well-documented, as he is tied with Austin Ekeler among all backs with 362 receptions (6.1 per game), and is second in receiving yards (3,105/52.6 per game) since 2018 – despite being sidelined for 23 games in 2020-2021.

He was limited to a 29% snap share during his debut with San Francisco in Week 7 but vaulted into the league lead with 440 receiving yards (44 per game) from Weeks 8-18. He also rose to second in targets (63/6.3 per game), and receptions (50/5.0 per game), and third in targets per route run (35.4%) yards per route run (2.47), and yards after catch (381).

McCaffrey’s 22.3% target share nearly matched the percentages of Aiyuk (23%), and Samuel (22.7%) during that sequence, and he will remain an essential component in the 49ers’ distribution of targets.

Brandon Aiyuk's Outlook  

Full house: All of the 49ers’ receivers were on hand at the start of practice on the first day of minicamp. Brandon Aiyuk has looked especially good this spring. pic.twitter.com/kjJ7VRGfkh

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) June 6, 2023

The weekly scripts that will be concocted by Shanahan will disperse opportunities to Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey while propelling each player to a percentage of highly-productive outings during the season. That can lead to erratic touch totals and inconsistent scoring. However, even though Aiyuk will share opportunities with the 49ers’ other difference-makers, he should maintain an integral role in Shanahan’s play-calling during the majority of his matchups.

San Francisco’s situation under center currently remains unsettled, although it has become increasingly likely that Brock Purdy will guide the offense whenever his recovery from elbow surgery is complete. Aiyuk averaged 10.2 yards per target and 14.4 yards per reception from Weeks 14-18 with Purdy as San Francisco’s starter, after averaging 8.4/12.5 yards from Weeks 1-13. He was also targeted on 25.6% of his routes and averaged 2.62 yards per route run while operating with Purdy, after being targeted on 30.0% of his routes and averaging 2.52 yards per route run prior to Purdy’s five starts.

What a catch by Brandon Aiyuk 😳

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/SBYOsaQVrL

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 16, 2022

The 49ers would become less reliant on their aerial attack if Trey Lance would spearhead the offense. However, Lance has only played on 262 snaps since the 49ers traded up to seize him with the third overall pick in 2021, and evidence continues to expand that Lance will never fulfill the expectations that emerged when San Francisco made that hefty investment.

Sam Darnold could also leapfrog Lance as the temporary starter if Purdy is unavailable, and the onset of training camp should deliver more clarity regarding the status of all three signal callers.

Aiyuk has established his role within Shanahan's attack to the degree that his target shares should largely remain favorable even as Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey also accumulate touches. Aiyuk’s continued development should combine with his route-running acumen, and his ability to erupt for sizable yardage on any given play toward minimally resulting in high-end WR3 production.

Name a player breaking out next season pic.twitter.com/2tBnCopPL8

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 15, 2023

While Aiyuk’s talent alone might not fuel a rise into WR2 territory due to the encumbrances of competition for touches, he is capable of operating as a high-end WR2 for fantasy managers if Samuel and Kittle are unable to elude injuries. Aiyuk can also exceed last year’s career-best numbers if that scenario transpires while creating the trajectory that many analysts and managers are hoping for during his fourth season. However, Aiyuk’s path toward delivering high-end WR2 output (or beyond) becomes less navigable if Samuel and Kittle remain in the lineup.

Even if Aiyuk’s runaway toward consistent and sizable targeting remains congested, there is sufficient rationale for you to prioritize him for your rosters, as he can function as a valuable resource in your efforts to seize league championships. This should incentivize you to target Aiyuk at his current draft positions in FFPC best ball leagues (75/WR31.), and dynasty start-ups (54/WR29), as he should outperform the expectations of those ADPs.

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