Fantasy Baseball Breakouts and Resurgences - Are They For Real?

May 18, 2026

Frank analyzes 5 fantasy baseball breakouts and hitter resurgences in 2026. These batters are off to hot starts, but are they real fantasy breakouts to stay?

One of the best ways to find value in fantasy baseball is on a bounce-back candidate. These are veterans coming off down years, but have enough of a track record to buy back in. Some late bloomers come out of nowhere, worth exploring.

In this article, we're going to look at breakouts and resurgences in fantasy baseball, determining whether or not these five hitters are for real.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Spencer Steer, JJ Bleday, Ildemaro Vargas, Miguel Vargas, and Zack Gelof.

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

Spencer Steer came into Friday with a .259/.333/.449 slash with seven home runs and two stolen bases in 165 plate appearances. The 28-year-old corner infielder has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21.8% while putting up a career-high 15.2% barrel rate (previous: 7.6%).

Simply put, he's hitting the ball harder than ever before, as highlighted by a .387 xwOBA, which is much higher than his previous personal best (.332 xwOBA).

#Reds Spencer Steer is quietly having a strong start to the season.

7 HR and 2 SB
.259/.333/.449
.347 wOBA | .387 xwOBA
117 wRC+

- Career-high marks in Pull air% (28.7%) and Barrel% (15.2%)
- 1 of only 14 players with 10 or more pull-side barrels
Best contact rates since 2022
-… pic.twitter.com/oz27haIuDs

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 15, 2026

Remember, this is a hitter who put up 20 homers and 25 steals back in 2024, so there's a track record here. With how well Steer is swinging the bat right now, there's a chance that he's on his way to a career year. But even if it's just a hot streak, we can say with confidence that he's back to 2024 form after a down year in 2025. That's still valuable in fantasy.

Playing in the heart of the order in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, Steer looks like a rock-solid veteran for your fantasy teams. I'm betting that he's for real and we see another 20+ homers, 15+ steals, and a decent number of runs and RBI, given the team context.

JJ Bleday, Cincinnati Reds

Former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday is RAKING in his first few weeks with the @Reds, slashing .321/.455/.755 with 6 HR and 18 RBI in 16 G 🔥

DeRo compares some numbers from past seasons to show why Bleday's breakout is for real. pic.twitter.com/ptJBltgJ1b

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 15, 2026

JJ Bleday was once a reasonably touted prospect. Now in his age-28 season, he looks like a completely different hitter, slashing .321/.455/.755 with six home runs in 66 plate appearances coming into Friday's action. He's made notable improvements in strikeout rate, trimming it from 26.5% to 15.2% along with batted ball metrics, improving his barrel rate from 7.8% to 16.3%.

If we dig even further under the hood, we see that Bleday has improved his bat speed from 71.7 MPH to 74.8 MPH. This looks like a completely different hitter at the plate.

All of his underlying metrics signal that this is a legitimate breakout. The only concern here is the lack of track record, which is understandable. But we've seen late-career breakouts in the past. Just think back to Edwin Encarnacion with the Blue Jays, or when Brent Rooker got to the Athletics.

Perhaps this is what's happening with Bleday here. Like his teammate Steer, you have to love the team context, playing at the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park. Continue riding the wave with Bleday. Don't bother trying to sell high. You won't get enough value for what Bleday could be for the rest of the season.

Ildemaro Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Ildemaro Vargas has been the best story in baseball this season 🐍

.404 AVG | 27-game hit streak dating back to last season | 1.131 OPS

All 38 of Vargas’s hits this year:pic.twitter.com/5Cu9HQZue9

— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) May 2, 2026

Ildemaro Vargas has to be the biggest surprise of the 2026 season so far. The 34-year-old career bench bat is currently slashing .331/.354/.561 with seven home runs in 146 plate appearances. He's maintained his career-norm low strikeout rate (11.0%), but the barrel rate hasn't really improved, currently sitting at 4.8%.

Here we have a case where this feels like an aberration. It's merely an extended hot streak. For one, this is an older player, now in his age-34 season. The fact that he also hasn't been hitting the ball harder makes me skeptical.

You can definitely continue riding the wave with Vargas, but don't expect the power surge to continue. More likely, he'll be a rock-solid asset in batting average, but I'm expecting a lengthy power drought for him.

He's a player you should try to sell high on if you can. I realize that's difficult considering the lack of track record, but you can pair him as a sweetener to a deal, including him with another player for an upgrade.

Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox

Miguel Vargas game-tying homer on the South Side! pic.twitter.com/6Lt2Vkovgj

— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2026

Miguel Vargas was once a touted prospect with the Dodgers. After he showed improvements last year, slashing .234/.316/.401 with 16 homers and six steals in 569 plate appearances, Vargas looks like he's breaking out in his age-26 season this year. The White Sox corner infielder is slashing .240/.373/.467 with nine home runs and six stolen bases heading into Friday's action.

You have to love the plate discipline, including a 16.2% walk rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate. It's also impressive to see his 14.9% barrel rate, which is a major improvement from his previous career-high (9.3%). This seems like a player who is finally finding his groove in the big leagues.

Vargas looks here to stay, hitting in the heart of the order for an improving White Sox team. There's a chance that he can provide a .240 BA with 25+ homers and 15+ steals this year. The sneaky speed is rare at corner infield, adding even more value to Vargas.

The biggest key for me here is the elite plate discipline. This raises his floor during slumps since he can still get on base with walks. If you added him earlier in the season, give yourself a pat on the back because he's going to remain on your roster all year.

Zack Gelof, Athletics

Zack Gelof went 14 HR, 14 SB in 300 PA back in 2023.

He may be back to that level:

.273/.322/.509
3 HR, 2 SB

Striking out only 24.6% of the time.

45.5% last year, 34.4% in 2024.

Intriguing.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 9, 2026

It wasn't that long ago that Zach Gelof was a touted player in fantasy baseball. Back in 2023, he slashed .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases in only 300 plate appearances. He followed that up with 17 homers and 25 steals in 2024.

The problem was strikeouts, as Gelof had a 34.4% K% in 2024 and a 45.5% K% in 2025. Even in his breakout 2023, he was still striking out 27.3% of the time.

But so far, Gelof is addressing those concerns. He's slashing .270/.316/.527 with five home runs and two stolen bases in 81 plate appearances. Most importantly, his strikeout rate is down to 23.5%. Despite the improvements in putting the ball in play, Gelof is still hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a 10.5% barrel rate.

Playing in a bandbox like Sutter Health Park bodes well for Gelof's fantasy value. This is a player who you can fire up at second base and potentially get 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. There's an outside chance that he's still available in your league, so make sure to make the move if that's the case. Gelof is another player on this list who looks like a legitimate breakout.

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