Fantasy Baseball Breakouts Who Will Continue To Improve In 2023

March 29, 2023

Lauren looks at five fantasy baseball breakout candidates for 2023. These MLB sleepers broke out last year and will improve further for 2023 fantasy baseball.

Happy Opening Day! Across Major League Baseball in 2022, an abundance of players put together solid campaigns. With the new rule changes in 2023, there’s likely to be even more. Particularly with the shift banned, more and more hitters will once again embrace the idea of “small ball” rather than feeling a need to always hit the ball out of the ballpark.

With fewer players swinging for the fences, there will be more balls in play, more runners on the base paths, and more opportunities for players to break out.

With that being said, here are five players who broke out in 2022 and are probable to sustain their success in 2023.

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Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians

Giménez broke out for the Cleveland Guardians in 2022. He was named to his first All-Star Game, earned a Gold Glove at second base, and played a significant role in the team winning the AL Central and making an NLDS appearance. On Tuesday, the club extended Giménez’s contract for seven years, locking him up through at least his age-31 season. Clearly, Cleveland believes in the 24-year-old’s capabilities, but can he keep it up?

Giménez initially debuted with the New York Mets in 2020 and finished seventh in Rookie of the Year voting. In January 2021, Giménez was involved in the trade that sent shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco to New York. He appeared in just 68 games for the Guardians in 2021.

The second baseman took a big step forward in 2022, slashing .297/.371/.466 with 17 home runs, 69 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and 34 walks across 146 games. The left-handed hitter also accrued 7.4 WAR, vastly improving from his five-homer, 16-RBI campaign from the prior season.

ATC projects Giménez to hit .266/.332/.418 with 16 home runs and 67 RBI. This is all while maintaining stellar defense at second base, with his ADP for the 2023 season being 99.3. With a fresh contract under his belt, Giménez is sure to produce another solid year for the Guardians.

Daulton Varsho, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Varsho shined for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2022, so much so that the Toronto Blue Jays were willing to part ways with former top prospect Gabriel Moreno (along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) for him in the offseason.

The 26-year-old catcher/outfielder hit 27 long balls and drove in 67 runs in 151 games last season. In 2022, though, the left-hander ranked in the 27th percentile in K% and 46th in BB%. Moreover, he struggled to make hard, consistent contact. His OPS+ was league average at 109, but playing home games at Chase Field in Phoenix certainly didn’t help. In fact, 27 of Varsho’s 41 career home runs have come on the road. 

He may not have more luck in Rogers Centre—which has been profiled as neither a pitcher’s park nor a hitter’s park in recent seasons. But perhaps a change of scenery and hitting in a lineup with the likes of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer will serve him well. ATC projects Varsho to slash .239/.308/.448 with 25 home runs and 71 RBI, sporting an ADP of 59.

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen had a fantastic second half for the Diamondbacks last season. The former third-round pick tossed 90 ⅓ innings of 1.49 ERA ball. He was 8-2 across 14 starts for Arizona and fanned 103 of the 329 batters he faced. 

Gallen was previously involved in a couple of blockbuster trades. The pitcher was traded by the St. Louis Cardinals to the Miami Marlins in December 2017 along with 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara in exchange for Marcell Ozuna. Then, the New Jersey native was sent from Miami to the D-backs for All-Star 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.

After his former trade partners put forth breakout seasons, it was Gallen’s turn. Overall in 2022, the right-hander pitched to a 2.54 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 184 innings of work. Gallen ranked in the 74th percentile in K% and 68th in BB% and primarily relied on his fastball in 2022, which topped out at 94 mph. Batters hit just .165 against it and .174 against his curveball -- his second-most used pitch.

Arizona was able to avoid arbitration with Gallen by agreeing to a one-year, $5.6 million deal in the offseason. ATC projects the 27-year-old to strike out 186 batters across 176 frames alongside a 3.48 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. A new deal being struck at the end of the season could add some extra motivation for Gallen to maintain his ace-like form in 2023.

Nico Hoerner, SS/2B, Chicago Cubs

By all accounts, the Chicago Cubs want Hoerner to be their second baseman of the future, extending the former first-round pick for three years. They’ll pair him with Dansby Swanson in a strong middle-infield duo.

The almost 26-year-old batted .281 with 10 dingers and 55 RBI in 2022, each being a career-high. He appeared in 135 games for Chicago, mostly at shortstop, but Hoerner doesn’t seem to be too concerned about making the move to second. The Stanford University product also produces Gold Glove-caliber defense up the middle, ranking in the 98th percentile in Outs Above Average in 2022.

Another strength in his game is his speed, as he placed in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed last season. He also kept his strikeouts to a minimum -- striking just 57 times in 517 plate appearances. However, he only drew 28 walks.

ATC projects Hoerner to hit nine homers and collect 57 RBI while slashing .279/.332/.394. With the Cubs inking him to a new extension, Hoerner will look to continue to improve upon his already solid game.

Luis Arraez, 2B, Miami Marlins

With the Minnesota Twins in 2022, Arráez won the AL Batting Title with an average of .316, was named an All-Star for the first time in his career, and won a Silver Slugger. It was certainly a breakout campaign for the 25-year-old Venezuelan infielder.

Arráez was then dealt by the Twins to the Miami Marlins in exchange for starting pitcher Pablo López and minor-leaguers Byron Chourio and Jose Salas. The Marlins certainly got a great hitter in Arráez. The left-handed hitter ranked in the 97th percentile in xBA in 2022 and the 100th in K%, going down on strikes just 43 times in 603 PA. He was among the top players in OPS+ at 130 as well. Arráez has a keen eye, and will likely continue to drive the ball to all parts of the field.

Signed to a one-year deal with Miami, Arráez will be one of the best left-handed bats in their lineup, along with Jazz Chisholm Jr. In a tough division like the NL East, Arráez will look to elevate the Marlins above their lackluster 69-93 record in 2022. ATC projects Arráez to slash .303/.363/.405 with six homers and 54 RBI.

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