WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 5 (2024)

October 6, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 5 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 5 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data since we're using the Week 1-4 metrics and matchup ratings might be skewed if a player struggled or succeeded, given the small sample. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

Favorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Below, we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 5. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, it may not be a perfect match for the real-time matchups during the game. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 5 WR/CB matchups.

If a receiver struggles in the first three weeks, it will impact their Week 4 matchup scores after adjusting their respective score based on the weighted averages. That mainly means we should temper expectations based on the WR/CB matchups and team context.

Week 5 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Josh Downs vs. Jarrian Jones

Through four weeks, Josh Downs rocks the third-highest first-read target share at 37.8 percent. Downs had the same first-read target share as Drake London and behind Cooper Kupp (52.1 percent) and Malik Nabers (47.1 percent). That's better than Michael Pittman Jr. at 31.9 percent.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by first-read target share.

That's further evident in Downs earning a high target rate, with his 36 percent targets per route run ranking first among qualified receivers. The caveat involves whether Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco starts in Week 5 since Flacco should provide better passing efficiency and consistency.

Regardless, Jarrian Jones allows the eighth-most yards and is 20th in fantasy points per route run. Additionally, Jones gives up the fourth-most yards per snap in slot coverage, ranking 32nd out of 35 qualified corners.

The Jaguars tend to be more friendly against outside receivers, allowing the third-most fantasy points to receivers out wide compared to the ninth-most to the slot.

That suggests Brian Thomas Jr. should feast, too, but fantasy managers should already be rolling with him after performing well in a challenging matchup in Week 4 and throughout the season. Downs might've been a waiver-wire pickup to plug into lineups for Week 5.

Amari Cooper vs. Benjamin St-Juste

Cooper remains the top target earner for the Browns, but we saw the boom-or-bust reality of his profile. After disappointing with five receptions and 27 receiving yards on 17 targets in Weeks 1-2, Cooper exploded for seven receptions, 86 receiving yards, and two scores on 12 targets in Week 3. Then he disappointed against a favorable matchup versus the Raiders, hauling four receptions for 35 yards on eight targets.

We won't find this in the box score, but Cooper had an 82-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter erased by an offensive holding penalty. That would've made fantasy managers confident in Cooper's viability for Week 5 against the Commanders.

Unfortunately, my recommendation of Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch fell flat in Week 4 in their matchup versus the Commanders. However, the process remains solid because the Commanders bleed fantasy points to receivers, allowing the most to the position, ranking sixth to players out wide and most to the slot.

Trust the expected points model because Cooper ranks 12th in EP/G at 14.9, with the sixth-worst fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) at -4.2. That usually presents a buy-low opportunity because most fantasy managers won't value Cooper as a WR1 or high-end WR2 based on the production.

Buy low on Cooper and watch him have a boom game, assuming penalties aren't causing lost yardage and scores.

Tutu Atwell vs. Corey Ballentine

The Rams were without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell was a pleasant surprise. Though Atwell isn't a high-end target earner, he produces efficiently, evidenced by the second-most yards per route run behind Jauan Jennings and the 13th-highest fantasy points per route run.

Over the past two weeks, Atwell's route participation increased to 82 percent with a respectable 20 percent targets per route run rate. Before Week 3, Atwell wasn't involved in the offense, with a 16.9 percent route rate and a 29 percent targets per route run rate on four targets.

The Packers have been most vulnerable out wide, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points. If Jaire Alexander returns from a groin injury, it might not be as juicy for Atwell, though Alexander and the Packers cornerbacks have been mediocre at best.

We're buying into Atwell's increased usage and target earning since he garnered a team-high 27 percent first-read target share in Weeks 3-4, ahead of Colby Parkinson (21.6 percent). Plus, we'll want a piece of the Rams and Packers game because it projects as the second or third highest over/under in Week 5.

Week 5 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Xavier Worthy vs. Marshon Lattimore

The Rashee Rice knee injury headlined fantasy articles and podcasts this week because he was the focal point of the Chiefs passing offense. Rice ranked 14th in first-read target share at 33.3 percent with the third-highest yards per route run at 3.47 among receivers with 10 or more targets. That put Rice behind Jennings at 3.71 (No. 1) and Atwell at 3.48 (No. 2).

Patrick Mahomes' 54-yard touchdown pass to Xavier Worthy traveled 62.2 yards in the air, Mahomes' longest completion by air distance of his career.

Worthy reached a top speed of 21.46 mph, the 3rd-fastest play by a ball carrier this season.

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 29, 2024

The challenging part of fading a receiver like Xavier Worthy involves his speed and big-play ability to make it worth it on 1-2 plays. We saw that in Week 4, taking a 54-yard reception to the house by running past Kristian Fulton.

Among receivers with 10 or more targets, Worthy ranks 105th in targets per route run at 14 percent. That's the same as Calvin Austin III, Andrei Iosivas, Jalen Tolbert, and Jalen Nailor. Worthy should see his opportunities increase without Rice, but the Chiefs passing offense will likely distribute the targets around, circling Travis Kelce.

The Saints run the seventh-highest rate of man coverage at 35.5 percent. Patrick Mahomes averages 7.57 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 12) with the 19th-ranked completion over expected rate at -3.6 percent. Worthy has a respectable 23 percent target rate, tied with Kelce against man coverage. However, Kelce has been more efficient with 3.38 yards per route run compared to Worthy at 1.19 versus man coverage.

Don't sit Worthy, but we'll need to downgrade his matchup against Lattimore until we see him earning more targets. Worthy might shove in our face again in Week 5, catching another 50-yard touchdown by blowing past Lattimore in man coverage.

Xavier Legette vs. Jaylon Johnson

Another waiver-wire priority was rookie Xavier Legette seeing his playing time and target earning improve with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Legette earned a 24 percent targets per route run rate while running 61 percent of the routes in Weeks 3-4. Though his route rate slightly increased from 55.9 percent, he had a low targets per route run rate at 18 percent in Weeks 1-2.

Xavier Legette's FIRST career TD!

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— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

Jaylon Johnson has been one of the better cornerbacks, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per route run. Furthermore, Johnson allows the fourth-lowest passer rating when targeted among qualified cornerbacks. The Bears have been one of the better teams, allowing the 25th-most fantasy points to the receiver position and 25th to receivers out wide.

When Johnson covered his assignments over the past few weeks, he only allowed one explosive play to Alec Pierce, with a 44-yard reception. Though Nico Collins smashed for 8-135-1 against the Bears, Johnson limited him to one 16-yard reception. Legette fits somewhere in between.

The Bears run the ninth-highest rate of Cover 3 at 35.1 percent. Dalton ranks 19th in adjusted yards per attempt and 40th out of 46 qualified quarterbacks against Cover 3. Meanwhile, Legette garners a 16 percent targets per route run rate with 0.84 yards per route run versus Cover 3.

Dalton's efficiency has been better when not facing Cover 3, evidenced by his eighth-best adjusted yards per attempt and ranking 16th in CPOE. The same trend goes for Legette, averaging a 24 percent target rate and 1.94 yards per route run versus Cover 3. We're not expecting week-winning performances from Legette, but temper expectations as a WR4 with some upside.

Drake London vs. Zyon McCollum

Zyon McCollum has sneakily been one of the better cornerbacks, ranking first in PFF Coverage Grade and allowing the sixth-lowest passer rating among qualified cornerbacks. The Buccaneers allow the 23rd-most fantasy points to receivers out wide and 18th to the slot. Though the Falcons move London around the formation, he projects to face a challenging matchup against McCollum.

No one is sitting London, but the data suggests to temper expectations in Week 5. London ranks 24th in fantasy points per route run and 30th in yards per route run. Many fantasy managers drafted London as a WR1 in the early rounds, but he averages 12.9 EP/G (No. 24). That suggests London's usage and role might be more in the WR2 range than a high-end WR1 option.

The Buccaneers run the third-highest rate of Cover 3 at 45.5 percent, behind the Panthers (52 percent) and Steelers (48 percent). Kirk Cousins averages 6.03 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 22) and 0.6 percent CPOE (No. 27) among 37 qualified quarterbacks with 10 or more dropbacks. Cousins' passing efficiency remains brutal when not facing Cover 3, evidenced by his 5.72 adjusted yards per attempt and -1.5 percent CPOE.

London's data doesn't look great versus Cover 3, evidenced by his 19 percent targets per route run rate (No. 115) and 1.26 yards per route run rate (No. 109). His numbers explode when not facing Cover 3, given the 32 percent targets per route run rate and 2.04 yards per route run rate. Be cautious with London exceeding expectations in Week 5.

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