WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Wild Card Round (2024)

January 14, 2024

Andrew's key fantasy football WR/CB matchups for NFL playoffs Wild Card weekend (2024). Wide receiver vs. cornerback sleepers and start em, sit em picks via his free CB ratings chart.

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the WR/CB Matchups article. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there are still plenty of opportunities to play other types of playoff contests. Hopefully, this article can help you make profitable decisions on this six-game Super Wild Card slate.

During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.

As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.

The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Wild Card Week

Click the image for a full-screen view

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Amari Cooper torched the Houston secondary in Week 16, so expect the Texans defensive coaches to focus on slowing down Cleveland's WR1. The data still likes Cooper's matchup as Houston was above average at defending RWRs and slots, but weak against LWRs all year.

The Packers may be without Jaire Alexander, but regardless of who is healthy for Green Bay, the NFL's hottest receiver should have another big game. CeeDee Lamb has been terrific this year, and this week gets an easy slot matchup against the Packers. If Alexander does play, he may follow Lamb around the formation. It probably won't matter that much. All signs point to another smash performance for Lamb.

The Lions blitz a lot on defense and don't have great cover corners aside from Brian Branch. Slot receivers have gashed Detroit all year, which means Cooper Kupp has the best on-paper matchup. Keep in mind that all Rams WRs move around the formation with tight splits and condensed formations. Puka Nacua is also in a good spot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had an excellent season as the No. 1 target for Jared Goff.  This week, he gets an easy matchup against the Rams, who have given up 13.3 FPPG to opposing slot receivers this season.

The Eagles were one of the easiest matchups all year for opposing WR groups, so Mike Evans and Chris Godwin get big matchup upgrades. Both are fantastic plays.

On the other side of that game, the Bucs were also a very easy matchup for opposing WRs this season. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are dealing with injuries, so check back before Monday night to find out if they're playing. If either suits up, they have great matchups.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

The Browns were awesome defending the pass all year, and this week take on a banged-up Texans receiver group. Nico Collins has the highest projected target share, so he's not a bad play, but this is a tough matchup for all Texans receivers. Make sure to check the status of Denzel Ward, who is on the injury report. If Ward can't go, Collins' matchup won't be as tough.

Elijah Moore is the clear third option in the Cleveland passing attack, and this week will have to deal with Desmond King, who has been stout against slots all year.

The Dolphins receiver group will be dealing with frigid temperatures in Kansas City, and also one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle is expected to play and both he and Tyreek Hill are talented enough to perform in tough matchups. They still get matchup downgrades against L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and Jaylen Watson.

The chart makes it look like Stefon Diggs has a very easy matchup, but Pittsburgh's data is skewed by some early season games when Joey Porter Jr. wasn't shadowing opposing WR1s. I expect Porter to follow Diggs around the formation. Diggs still has a high projection in a neutral matchup. However, both Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield get downgrades against a solid Pittsburgh pass D.

Green Bay's pass D has been stout against outside receivers all year. It's not a great spot for Michael Gallup or Brandin Cooks.

The Cowboys have been stingy against the pass all year. All Packers receivers get matchup downgrades, but keep in mind this could be a high-scoring game. They are all still viable depending on Christian Watson's status.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week. This series will continue next week for the Divisional Round and up through the Super Bowl.

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