UFL Best Bets: Week 3 Picks

April 11, 2025

RotoBrady provides picks on every spread and O/U for Week 3 of the 2025 UFL Season.

Now that looked like the Birmingham Stallions! Last week saw some very interesting results, including another nine-point, miserable performance by San Antonio and a bizarre 11-9 win for the Renegades over the Roughnecks. I went 5-4 last week on spreads, over/unders, and the ML play on Birmingham, but the parlay missed again. With how much we have to re-learn every year, I am happy to be above .500.

A recap of some wild news this week: for Michigan, Marcus Simms traded for pennies, Matt Colburn II is out, and Breeland Speaks is now on the IR. For San Antonio, after a rough start, A.J. Smith has stepped down as the Brahmas OC to be replaced by Payton Pardee. For D.C., Gregg Williams is now out as D.C.'s defensive coordinator, and that is arguably a bigger blow than Reggie Barlow leaving.

Most insane: Curtis Johnson is still the head coach of the Houston Roughnecks. So, there is a lot of extra consideration to put into Week 3. These numbers have been moving like crazy throughout the week, and it has been an absolute rollercoaster if you placed your bets early in the week. Let's see if we can continue winning ways, get a parlay to stick, and talk about what to make of these shakeups and matchups in this upcoming week of UFL action.

Week 3 Power Rankings

1. St. Louis Battlehawks- I am officially sold, but this week will tell a lot more.
2. D.C. Defenders- a really impressive win to start the year and a concerningly thin win last week. They could end up No. 1 on Sunday.
3. Birmingham Stallions- right back on track with easily more room to grow.
4. Arlington Renegades- two wins over the two worst teams in the league and an alarmingly close win over Houston.
5. Michigan Panthers- what in God's name was with that Marcus Simms trade?
6. Memphis Showboats- it really looked like they could do it there for a second against the Defenders.
7. San Antonio Brahmas- they have way too much talent for this slot.
8. Houston Roughnecks- get comfortable here.

Week 3 Picks

Arlington Renegades at Birmingham Stallions (Friday, April 11, at 8 PM ET)

Stallions (-3.5), -175 ML, O/U 39.5

Alex McGough is out for weeks, so Matt Corral will be starting at QB for Birmingham. Corral had a solid game last week if it wasn't for the two interceptions, but I think some of that issue will be ironed out once he gains more field time in 2025. Not having C.J. Marable for another week is a bummer, but it will be a huge boost for Birmingham to play at home, finally. Arlington might have only beaten Houston by two last week, but it feels like it should have been by more.

Luis Perez was efficient, the rushing game was on point, and the defense held Houston to single digits (perhaps easier said than done). I have yet to see any news on whether Sal Cannella is playing today, and this game will have many competitive points- but at home, this is where I see the Birmingham Stallions just being a little bit better in too many departments. I see a final score range of 17-13 to 21-18 for the Stallions, so favor them on the spread and line slightly and go under.

Houston Roughnecks at Memphis Showboats (Saturday, April 12, at 2:30 PM ET)

Showboats (-5.5), -230 ML, O/U 35.5

Memphis, this is the week. This line has shot up since the start of the week, and that is hilarious, considering that Houston added an All-UFL WR in Simms for next to nothing. They might have gotten thoroughly beaten in Week 1 by Michigan, but they made last Saturday pretty uncomfortable for D.C. The passing, rushing, and performance by Jonathan Adams were all encouraging, while the defense forced a very inefficient day for the Defenders.

Nothing about the Roughneck offense is working out. Did you add Simms? Who is throwing him the ball? That hasn't changed, and neither has the worst head coach in the league. Their defense held up well last week, but 95% of the time, a team with Arlington's stats is scoring more than 11. But with how much the Boats are actually capable of scoring, this line is approaching being too big. I see a score of 13-7 to 18-12, so lay with Memphis and take the under.

San Antonio Brahmas at Michigan Panthers (Sunday, April 13, at 12 PM ET)

Panthers (-6.5), -290 ML, O/U 35.5

By far the hardest call of the week with all of these variables. Things have to start looking up for the Brahmas. Kellen Mond has not been good passing, but the running of Mond, Jashaun Corbin, and Anthony McFarland Jr. has been superb, and they just ran into a vengeance-driven Battlehawk buzzsaw last week on the road in front of 30,000 fans. A.J.'s leaving was a surprise, but maybe a change of scenery is best for both parties. The defense has been shredded in each of the first two weeks.

Morale cannot be awesome now in Michigan with the loss of Speaks, Colburn, and the incredibly fishy trade of Simms. Even still, Bryce Perkins has remained very consistent. I trust Nate McCrary and the remainder of the Panthers' defense to hold down the fort, and I think the pass-catchers remain fine for what Perkins actually needs. I see a final score range of 17-12 to 24-15 for Michigan, so lay the points and favor the under.

D.C. Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, April 13, at 3 PM ET)

Battlehawks (-7), -310 ML, O/U 38.5

The Defenders will be leaving behind one of the best home advantages in the league and stepping into the thicket of another. The loss of Williams is rough for a defense that has been a staple, and reliable as Jordan Ta'amu, Abram Smith, Deon Jackson, Chris Rowland, and Ty Scott have been, they have averaged 17.5 points per game and had themselves in danger against Memphis in Week 2.

St. Louis has easily earned the top slot. They outscored Houston and San Antonio 57-15 in the first two weeks. Manny Wilkins and Jacob Saylors have anchored the flourishing offense behind a stout O-Line, the defense has been imposing with three sacks by Pita Taumoepenu, and even special teams have thrived in the form of Jahcour Pearson and Rodrigo Blankenship. In the dome? I see a final score range of 21-17 to 30-21, so I lean slightly toward -7 and actually will take an over for once.

Parlay of the Week

Memphis (-162), Michigan (-218): +135

Love getting these numbers early in the week--I think Michigan will be in a closer one with all of the shakeup, which is why I am alright with the ML. Somehow the Boats feel like a bargain over the Roughnecks considering their admirable showing last week against D.C.

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