RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 17 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
Can you believe it's almost the end of July. I don't know about you all, but this summer has just been one giant blur to me. We've seen a lot of great performances out of this column, while others...let's just not think about them.
It's time to crown a champion from the Week 15 list, and if you picked up Anthony DeSclafani to stream that week you are probably pretty happy with his performance. Despite earning a loss (Thanks Cincinnati offense. Couldn't score at least a couple more runs?), DeSclafani posted a 3.09 ERA with 15 strikeouts — including a career-high 11 strikeouts against St. Louis. And as for how Week 16 is shaping up, it's the two most widely available pitchers on that list who are off to the best starts. Chase Anderson allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings with six strikeouts against the Reds, while Peter Lambert allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts.
So without further ado, let's dive into the two-start streaming options for Week 17 before we begin focusing on the Trade Deadline.
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Week 17 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Reynaldo Lopez, CHW - 26% owned
Probable opponents: vs NYM, @ PHI
It's been a rough and inconsistent season for Lopez, as he has posted a 5.52 ERA and has failed to string together more than three starts in a row with three or fewer runs allowed. While he's been inconsistent overall, he's on a three-game hot streak right now, posting a 1.71 ERA with 25 strikeouts over his last three starts — including a 10-strikeout performance in his last start against Miami.
Lopez will get a double dose of the National League in Week 17, as he faces the Mets at home before traveling to take on the Phillies. The Mets are currently averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last 10 games, but that number is inflated thanks to a 14-run and 11-run outburst in that span. Outside of those two games, New York is averaging just 3.0 runs per game and hitting .196. Add in the fact that the Mets have struggled against right-handed starters and they hit worse on the road than at home, and that shapes up to be a good start to the week for Lopez. Then looking at his start against Philadelphia, and it looks like another promising fantasy day for Lopez. The Phillies are averaging 3.8 runs over their last 10 games while hitting .224 and averaging 10 strikeouts per game in that span. And much like the Mets, the Phillies have hit worse this season against right-handed starters (.242 average, .731 OPS) than left-handers (.247, .757).
This is the high-risk, high reward pick of the column this week. There's no denying that Lopez has been wildly inconsistent this season (which as a White Sox fan this has been killing me), but things seem to be aligning for a good fantasy performance this week. If you're looking for a swing-for-the-fences lottery pick, then Lopez is your guy in Week 17.
Tanner Roark, CIN - 26% owned
Probable opponents: vs PIT, @ ATL
Unlike Lopez, Roark has been more consistent on the mound from start to start this season. Roark is 6-6 on the year with a 3.95 ERA while averaging 5.3 strikeouts per start. While he was lit up for seven earned runs at Colorado, he has thrown back-to-back outings of five innings and two runs allowed against the Cardinals and the Brewers.
First up for Roark will be the Pirates, who are 2-8 over their last 10 games and are currently on a six-game losing streak. During this span, Pittsburgh is averaging 3.7 runs and 8.0 strikeouts per game while hitting .249. Roark will also get the additional bonus of playing them at home, as the Pirates are hitting 16 points lower on the road with an OPS 53 points worse than when playing in Pittsburgh. After Pittsburgh, Roark will then head south to Atlanta where he should have another good matchup with the Braves. Atlanta is averaging 4.0 runs and 9.4 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .248. While Roark won't get the home field advantage, he will still get an advantage over Pittsburgh. The Pirates are hitting 12 points worse against right-handers than left-handers, and they have an OPS 41 points worse against right-handers.
While Roark doesn't have the high ceiling that Lopez has this week, he definitely has the higher floor of the two. If you're looking at these two in Week 17 and you're worried it's going to be a close week, go with Roark as he is less likely to have a bad pair of outings.
Week 17 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Mike Leake, SEA - 23% owned
Probable opponents: @ TEX, @ HOU
Leake has been looking good in Seattle lately, going 2-1 in the month of July with a 2.59 ERA and 22 strikeouts while also recording two scoreless outings. Averaging just over five strikeouts per start since the beginning of June, Leake has thrown six or more strikeouts in five of his last eight outings. He'll start off the week against the Rangers, who are averaging 10.2 strikeouts per game over their last 10 games. Leake has already shown recent success against Texas, having recorded seven strikeouts while allowing three runs over seven innings in his most recent start. After Texas he'll then face off against the Astros, which should prove to be a bit more of a challenge. Houston is averaging 6.1 runs and 8.1 strikeouts per game over their last 10 games while hitting .264. In his last start against Houston, Leake allowed one run while striking out five in a complete-game effort.
This is a case of judging whether one good start will compensate for one potentially bad start. Leake is riding a hot streak, and that Texas start looks very tempting. Owners should try to snag either Lopez or Roark first, but if they're both taken Leake might be the next guy to grab.
Dinelson Lamet, SDP - 15% owned
Probable opponents: vs BAL, @ LAD
Since making his season debut this month, Lamet has been looking good in the strikeout department, but his ERA has been on the high side. He has posted a 25:7 K:BB ratio over his first 18 innings, but that comes with a 5.00 ERA. Lamet will start off the week against the Orioles, who are riding a hot streak with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games while averaging 7.0 runs and 10.2 strikeouts per game. Then he'll face the Dodgers who are 6-4 over their last 10 games and averaging 6.1 run and 8.9 strikeouts per game. Lamet has already gone up against the Dodgers once, throwing seven strikeouts and allowing three runs over five innings in his season debut.
Lamet is the poor man's Lopez in this week's column. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, but his potential value will be slightly lower than Lopez. Owners looking for pure strikeouts and who are willing to risk a blow to their ERA should look to add Lamet this week.
Tyler Beede, SFG - 13% owned
Probable opponents: @ PHI, @COL
Rounding out this week's column is Beede, who has come back down from what was a rough start to the year. Over his last eight outings, Beede has posted a 3.61 ERA while averaging just over five strikeouts per game, including four starts in which he threw seven strikeouts. In his first start against Philadelphia, he will benefit from the same advantage of being a right-hander that Lopez will have in his start with the Phillies. Then Beede will have to travel to Colorado to face the Rockies, which should be somewhat of a challenge. The Rockies are averaging 4.7 runs and 9.6 strikeouts over their last 10 games, but they are hitting significantly better at home (.307 average, .894 OPS) than on the road (.226, .667).
The Colorado start will be a coin toss as to how Beede will fair. Based on his projected starts this week, owners will probably want to look at him as being on a similar level to Lamet. Beede should provide some good strikeout value, but his ERA might blow up based on the start with the Rockies. That being said, between Lamet and Beede, owners should look to target Beede first this week.
