RADIO
Current ADP: 207.2
Rankings Status: Overvalued
Analysis: The Metropolitan backstop is high on many sleeper lists this season due to a "power breakout" in the second half of the 2014 season. However, his rate stats indicate that while the second half was a change for Travis d'Arnaud, it is not one likely to lead to increased power output for fantasy owners.
During the second half, d'Arnaud's batted ball distribution saw him hit 21.1% liners, 43.9% grounders, and 35.1% flies. These totals are shockingly close to MLB averages: 21%/44%/35%. In his terrible first half, d'Arnaud differed from this norm quite a bit, posting a below average liner rate (18%) and an elevated flyball rate (42.7%). Since line drives have the highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and flies the lowest, the change in overall hit distribution boosted d'Arnaud's overall BABIP between halves from .241 to .274. This makes perfect sense and could justify an argument that d'Arnaud's average will tick upward this year.
Average Fantasy Performer
Fantasy owners do not generally want average performance from catchers though, as the relatively low number of PAs mitigates the effect that has on fantasy teams. This is troubling for d'Arnaud, whose favorable changes in the second half actively work against power. While flyballs have the lowest BABIPs, they make up for it by boasting higher slugging percentages - in general, a batter wants to hit the ball in the air while a pitcher would prefer to keep it on the ground. HR are a direct result of flyballs, and hitting them at a 7.6% reduced rate is the opposite of a power breakout.
The effect last year was offset by a slight uptick in HR/FB ratio for d'Arnaud, as 9.4% of his flies went over the fence in the first half while 11.7% did in the second. d'Arnaud is still young enough that he has no HR/FB baseline, but league average is 10%. Neither of d'Arnaud's figures stray too far from that number, so "average" is likely the expectation going forward.
Power Outage
The increase in slugging percentage in the second half was the result not of bombs (only one more in the second half than the first) but an increase in doubles driven by the higher line drive rate. Indeed, d'Arnaud bettered his paltry 8 first half doubles with 14 (and 3 triples) in the second - but many roto leagues do not reward doubles or triples over any other hit. When fantasy owners think power, they mean HR power - and d'Arnaud paradoxically sacrificed it to raise his overall slugging percentage.
d'Arnaud's minor league numbers also do not support a power breakout. His professional career high in HR is 21, achieved in AA in 2011. That was paired with a high 21.5% strikeout rate, a number that d'Arnaud's 12.3% K rate in the second half last season pales in comparison to. The catcher's 16 AAA dingers the next season are his next best HR output, with a slightly lower 19.5% K rate. Last year's 13 are his third highest total. It seems likely that d'Arnaud swings the bat on a more level plane than he once did, sacrificing HR pop in exchange for increased contact ability. This change makes him a better real player, but a lesser fantasy option in leagues that do not count doubles or slugging percentage. There is likely not a 20 HR campaign forthcoming, especially at Citi Field.
There are numerous other problems with d'Arnaud. He pops out way too much for a player without elite power (around 11%). The second half last year was the first extended period in which he posted even an average line drive rate. His defense is beyond atrocious whether the eye test, Defensive Runs Saved, CS percentage, Inside Edge, or passed balls are used to measure it.
In Summary
His second half "breakout" is nothing more than the emergence of a painfully average hitter that appeared as something more because the first half was so dreadful. His spring training stats have been brutal: .229 with 0 HR and 0 BB, with 2 doubles (one should have been an error) and a triple. The Mets have other options should his struggles continue. Thankfully, his ADP is late at 202, but it really should be later. There is simply no compelling reason to roster d'Arnaud unless your league has lower case "d"s on uniform backs as a category.
